Copy of ECS Timeline All

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
1	study	min	max	mean	date	Smoothed average	Smoothed min/max	lowess_min	Paleo	link	Combined Approaches	Models	Constrained Models	Instrumental	Paleo
2	Andronova and Schlesinger 2001	1	9.3	2	2001	2.8531332	7.5023882	1.3006495	combination		combi model and obs
3	IPCC TAR	1.7	4.2	3	2001.5	2.8930136	7.2439638	1.4478552	combination		combi
4	Forest et al. 2002	1.4	7.7	3.5	2002	2.9335309	7.0119485	1.5866165	constrained models		model in the historical
5	Knutti et al. 2002	2	9.2	4.8	2002.2	2.9777794	6.8537283	1.6885764	instrumental		instrumental
6	Gregory et al. 2002	1.6	10	2.1	2002.4	3.0255533	6.7264827	1.7771715	instrumental		instrumental
7	Harvey and Kaufmann 2002	1	3	2	2002.6	3.0733484	6.6205841	1.8542713	instrumental		instrumental
8	Kaufmann and Stern 2002	2	2.8	2.5555556	2002.8	3.1180981	6.5232789	1.920538	instrumental		instrumental
9	Murphy et al. 2004	2.5	5.4	3.5	2004	3.1575189	6.4275387	1.9757476	constrained models		constrained perturbed physics ensemble of present day obs?
10	Lea 2004	4.3	5.9	5.1	2004.5	3.1895648	6.3318509	2.019492	paleo		paleo
11	Andreae et al. 2005	1.3	10	2	2005	3.2124968	6.237391	2.0513859	constrained models		constrainting models?
12	Tsushima et al. 2005	3.1	4.73	3.77	2005.1429	3.2247403	6.1464168	2.0712631	instrumental		satellite observations
13	Frame et al. 2005	1.2	5.2	2.3	2005.2857	3.2256855	6.0570655	2.0795816	instrumental		instrumental
14	Stainforth et al. 2005	2.15	6.95	3.35	2005.4286	3.2163907	5.9659076	2.0772178	combination		combi
15	Ranen 2005	2.1	5.3	3.4	2005.5714	3.1996912	5.8716476	2.0665368	models		models CMIP2
16	Piani et al. 2005	2	6.3	3.5	2005.7143	3.1798776	5.7766534	2.0498236	models		models (?) perturbed physics
17	Annan et al. 2005	4.39	6.45	5.44	2005.8571	3.1602127	5.6889552	2.0272554	paleo		paleo
18	Forster and Gregory 2006	1	4.1	1.6	2006	3.142433	5.6149169	1.9986347	instrumental		instrumental
19	Forest et al. 2006	2.1	8.9	4.1	2006.1111	3.1268347	5.5567888	1.9640135	instrumental		instrumental combi
20	Stern et al. 2006	4.35	4.45	4.4	2006.2222	3.113266	5.5188857	1.9239855	instrumental		instrumental fit
21	Soden and Held 2006	2.25	4.2	2.92	2006.3333	3.1009375	5.4809826	1.8839575	models		cmip3 models
22	Forster and Taylor 2006	2.1	3.36	2.7	2006.4444	3.0882212	5.4521229	1.8415521	models		models 1% simulations
23	Knutti et al. 2006	1.5	6.4	3.4	2006.5556	3.0726759	5.4225652	1.7985941	constrained models		constraining climatology
24	Annan and Hargreaves 2006	1.7	4.9	2.9	2006.6667	3.0514856	5.3920453	1.7566757	combination		combination
25	Hegerl et al. 2006	1.5	6.2	2.5	2006.7778	3.0252903	5.3654399	1.7174805	combination		combining lines of evidences
26	von Deimling et al. 2006	1.2	4.3	2	2006.8889	2.9958535	5.3482388	1.6824007	paleo		paleo
27	Tomassini et al. 2007	1.5	7.2	2.8	2007	2.9644261	5.3404232	1.652194	constrained models		model in the historical
28	Chylek et al. 2007	1.07	1.77	1.555555	2007.1429	2.9318498	5.3380278	1.6267878	instrumental		instrumental
29	Schwartz 2007	0.9	2.9	1.9	2007.2857	2.8987302	5.3537889	1.6314282	instrumental		instrumental
30	CMIP3	2.1	4.4	3.15	2007.4286	2.8677084	5.3447469	1.6192388	models		raw model
31	IPCC AR4	2	4.5	3	2007.5714	2.8412482	5.3357163	1.6125216	combination		combi
32	Edwards et al. 2007	0	10	5	2007.7143	2.821548	5.3263499	1.6127496	paleo		paleo review
33	Royer et al. 2007	1.5	6.2	2.8	2007.8571	2.8084172	5.3142008	1.6190574	paleo		paleo
34	Sanso et al. 2008	1.75	5.68	3.12	2008	2.800938	5.3013499	1.6296682	constrained models		models in the historical
35	Forest et al. 2008	2.1	5	3	2008.25	2.7978143	5.2896591	1.6425725	models		models
36	Knutti and Hegerl 2008	2	4.5	3	2008.5	2.7977767	5.2804243	1.6556786	combination		combi review
37	Chylek and Lohmann 2008	1.3	2.3	1.8	2008.75	2.8009029	5.2748626	1.6685655	paleo		paleo
38	Murphy et al. 2009	0.93	10	3	2009	2.8054329	5.2707012	1.6807917	instrumental		instrumental
39	Meinshausen et al. 2009	2.1	7.1	2.8	2009.25	2.8091897	5.2664976	1.6928116	combination		combi
40	Lindzen and Choi 2009	0.4	0.51	0.4555	2009.5	2.8104991	5.2690756	1.7106277	instrumental		instrumental
41	Sanso and Forest 2009	2.29	6.1	3.95	2009.75	2.8083016	5.2716535	1.7284438	constrained models		models in the historical
42	Lin et al. 2010	2.8	3.7	3.1	2010	2.8020145	5.2568593	1.7369655	instrumental		instrumental
43	Bender et al. 2010	1.7	4.1	2.7	2010.2	2.7924453	5.2305233	1.7434667	constrained models		models volcanic
44	Holden et al. 2010	2	5	3.6	2010.4	2.7819006	5.1906955	1.7488276	paleo		paleo
45	Kohler et al. 2010	1.4	5.2	2.4	2010.6	2.7729936	5.1376863	1.7546639	paleo		paleo
46	Jones et al. 2010	3.5	3.7	3.6	2010.8	2.7678479	5.085688	1.7600133	paleo		paleo
47	Libardoni and Forest 2011	1.8	4.4	2.7	2011	2.7685201	5.0336898	1.7653628	constrained models		historical
48	Huber et al. 2011	2.9	4	3.4	2011.125	2.7754117	4.9827483	1.7703542	constrained models		constraining
49	Lindzen and Choi 2011	0.5	1.1	0.7	2011.25	2.7874633	4.9387034	1.7708976	instrumental		instrumental
50	Roe and Armour 2011	1.5	10	3	2011.375	2.8027529	4.9022644	1.7662034	combination		pdf arguments
51	Sanderson et al. 2011	1.92	5	2.7	2011.5	2.8189604	4.8707418	1.7584769	models		models
52	Loutre et al. 2011	1.6	4.8	3	2011.625	2.8340147	4.8429707	1.7478117	constrained models		model constraint with observed warming
53	Huber and Knutti 2011	1.7	6.5	3.6	2011.75	2.8455831	4.8205337	1.7339284	constrained models		models in the historical
54	Schmittner at al. 2011	1.4	2.8	2.3	2011.875	2.8513947	4.8030945	1.7165324	combination		combi paleo & model
55	Olson et al. 2012	1.8	4.9	2.8	2012	2.85008	4.7895571	1.6965272	combination		combi
56	Aldrin et al. 2012	1.15	3.45	1.98	2012.0909	2.8418149	4.7760637	1.675895	instrumental		instrumental combining lines of evidences
57	Schwartz 2012	1.5	6	3	2012.1818	2.8280378	4.757117	1.6569396	instrumental		instrumental
58	Olivie et al. 2012	1.81	3.5	2.33	2012.2727	2.8115234	4.7540625	1.642379	models		models
59	Andrews et al. 2012	2.1	4.7	3.37	2012.3636	2.7956321	4.7161482	1.6295606	models		models
60	Fasullo and Trenberth 2012	3.3	4.5	4	2012.4545	2.7821498	4.6698381	1.6200525	constrained models		constraining
61	Sexton et al. 2012	2.3	4.3	3.25	2012.5455	2.772541	4.6198065	1.6148405	combination		combi model and obs
62	Skinner 2012	0.6	6.5	3	2012.6364	2.7675517	4.5705615	1.614081	paleo		paleo large review
63	Palaeosens 2012	1.3	5.8	3.2	2012.7273	2.7670674	4.5215994	1.6128506	paleo		paleo combi
64	Hargreaves et al. 2012	0.8	4	2.3	2012.8182	2.7707144	4.4766548	1.6169825	paleo		paleo modelling
65	Rohling et al. 2012	1.66	4.99	3.15	2012.9091	2.7775829	4.4461235	1.621938	paleo		paleo
66	Bodman et al. 2013	1.5	5.2	3.1	2013	2.7879702	4.4310702	1.6285387	constrained models		models in the historical
67	Harris et al. 2013	2.4	4.3	3.3	2013.0526	2.8018225	4.4256698	1.6364843	constrained models		models in the historical
68	Otto et al. 2013	1.2	3.9	2	2013.1053	2.8188717	4.4281563	1.6448248	instrumental		instrumental
69	Otto et al. 2013	0.9	5	1.9	2013.1579	2.8365723	4.4371688	1.6531536	instrumental		instrumental
70	Lewis 2013	1	3	1.6	2013.2105	2.8517273	4.4538083	1.6618899	instrumental		instrumental
71	Bengtsson and Schwartz 2013	1.5	2.5	2	2013.2632	2.8618562	4.4761165	1.6716544	instrumental		instrumental
72	van Hateren 2013	1.7	2.3	2	2013.3158	2.8662301	4.4993515	1.6825644	combination		combi instrum & paleo
73	Forster et al. 2013	1.95	4.55	3.22	2013.3684	2.8660478	4.5202052	1.6956349	models		models
74	Sanderson 2013	1.7	4.6	2.9	2013.4211	2.8628039	4.5365818	1.712335	constrained models		constraining
75	Dessler 2013	2.16	4.56	2.94	2013.4737	2.8580925	4.5497099	1.7327557	models		A1B scenarios
76	Geoffroy et al. 2013a	2.15	4.55	3.25	2013.5263	2.8531118	4.5605824	1.7544857	models		models
77	Geoffroy et al. 2013b	1.95	5.55	3.5	2013.5789	2.8496076	4.5610975	1.7604782	models		models
78	CMIP5	1.9	4.8	3.1	2013.6316	2.8492133	4.5561351	1.7615917	models		raw model
79	Masson and Knutti 2013	1.52	5.09	3.36	2013.6842	2.8526929	4.5505754	1.7659647	constrained models		combi constraints
80	Tett et al. 2013	2.7	4.2	3.4	2013.7368	2.8597135	4.5577165	1.7785828	combination		combi model and obs
81	IPCC AR5	1.5	4.5	3	2013.7895	2.8682993	4.5695719	1.7908807	combination		combi
82	Kutzbach et al. 2013	1.8	7.8	5	2013.8421	2.8763942	4.571591	1.7967325	paleo		paleo modelling
83	Kutzbach et al. 2013	2	4	3	2013.8947	2.8825774	4.5986438	1.8052011	paleo		paleo modelling
84	Caballero and Huber 2013	2.22	10	3	2013.9474	2.884722	4.6380375	1.80933	paleo		paleo modelling
85	Loehle 2014	1.75	2.32	1.99	2014	2.879878	4.6843559	1.813646	instrumental		instrumental
86	Skeie et al. 2014	0.92	3.18	1.84	2014.0833	2.8656646	4.7307495	1.8138445	instrumental		instrumental
87	Kummer and Dessler 2014	1.6	4.1	2.3	2014.1667	2.8416539	4.7801789	1.8096837	instrumental		instrumental
88	Lovejoy 2014	2.5	3.66	3.08	2014.25	2.8097904	4.8292032	1.8069472	instrumental		time series
89	Urban et al. 2014	2.1	4.6	3.1	2014.3333	2.7728536	4.8598779	1.8050404	instrumental		instrumental
90	Schwartz et al. 2014	1.2	2.9	2	2014.4167	2.7344863	4.8689294	1.8037072	constrained models		models in the historical
91	Lewis 2014	1.2	4.5	2.2	2014.5	2.6983026	4.8698113	1.8054177	instrumental		instrumental
92	Masters 2014	1.19	5.15	1.98	2014.5833	2.6673656	4.8639261	1.8070229	constrained models		models in the historical
93	Donohoe et al. 2014	3.05	3.15	3.1	2014.6667	2.6439413	4.8491184	1.8135449	instrumental		satellites
94	Sherwood et al. 2014	3	4.8	4	2014.75	2.630265	4.8343106	1.8200669	constrained models		constraining
95	Su et al. 2014	3.3	3.5	3.4	2014.8333	2.6275742	4.8124322	1.8291606	constrained models		constraining
96	Heydt et al. 2014	2	3.5	2.5555	2014.9167	2.6355031	4.7905539	1.8382543	paleo		paleo
97	Monckton et al. 2015	0.8	1.3	1	2015	2.6529483	4.7654072	1.8463709	instrumental		instrumental
98	Johansson et al. 2015	2	3.17	2.5	2015.0588	2.6765663	4.7402606	1.8544875	instrumental		instrumental
99	Johansson et al. 2015	1.59	7.78	3.06	2015.1176	2.7033907	4.720774	1.8600357	instrumental		instrumental
100	Marvel et al. 2015	1.1	10	3.1	2015.1765	2.7337403	4.6999003	1.8614471	constrained models		models in the historical