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Meta Platforms (META) — Valuation Summary
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Apply to the Intrinsic Value Mastermind
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Bear CaseBase CaseBull Case
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Scenario weight (fill in)25%50%25%
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2030 revenue ($mm)350,717442,581467,337
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2030 operating margin32.0%38.0%44.0%
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2030 capex ($mm)230,000190,000160,000
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Cumulative FCF 2026–2030 ($mm)(73,445)99,760230,004
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2030 FCF per share$9.17$40.78$60.96
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2030 EPS (normalized)$36.36$56.28$69.11
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Exit multiple18.0x22.0x25.0x
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Fair value — (a) FCF multiple (Jan method)$112.31$610.54$1037.18
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Fair value — (b) normalized FCF$63.32$763.29$1263.52
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Fair value — (c) P/E on EPS$445.39$842.65$1175.96
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IV target w/ MoS — (a)$101.08$549.48$933.46
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IV target w/ MoS — (b)$56.99$686.96$1137.17
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IV target w/ MoS — (c)$400.85$758.38$1058.36
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Implied IRR at $578 — (a)(21.4%)4.1%21.7%
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Implied IRR at $578 — (b)(29.5%)8.8%26.6%
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Implied IRR at $578 — (c)2.9%11.0%24.8%
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PROBABILITY-WEIGHTED (fills in once weights are entered)
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Weights entered100.0%OK
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Weighted fair value — (a) FCF multiple$592.64
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Weighted fair value — (b) normalized FCF$713.36
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Weighted fair value — (c) P/E on EPS$826.66
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Current price$744.00
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