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Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

Stevenson graduated only 1 player from last year's team, which means they have the incredible talent of that team plus an extra year of experience. They are my definite pick to win HSNCT with TJ probably repeating as NSC champs this year. Beavercreek will put up great performances but will be shut down by the fact that they are largely a one-man team, a problem that Taylor has as well, though nowhere near as bad. The same goes for Auburn as well, though I have a feeling that they will do significantly better at HSNCT this year than they did last year, simply as a result of gained experience. Honestly, I'm not really in the community enough to know who should be where. But from the very limited stuff I've seen TJ isn't as impressive to me as they are to a lot of other people, since they're really the only top tier team in Virginia.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

There is basically no team that can top TJ A at this point. Their performance at every tournament has been..dominant. They can scale up like no other team can. Enough said. Uni Lab A at second may seem like a hot take, but they are an incredibly deep and balanced team and if their full roster shows up, they are virtually undefeatable. Like TJ, Hunter A has similarly put up consistently great stats, although not as high and especially at NAQT. Hari Parameswaran is the greatest player in hsqb, asides from maybe Fred Zhang, and there's no reason he can't lead Beavercreek to a repeat of their dual top 8 finishes at nationals last year.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

(assume "A" team unless specified)
- TJHSST A seems to be the outright #1, but hopefully not invincible
- Since this is supposed to be somewhat reflective of how teams would place at nationals right now, I based most of my rankings on not only stats, but also scaling up, nationals experience, clutch factor, etc.
- Even though it may not be the case, I will still rank Wayzata as if Geoffrey is playing
- I am also treating the ranks as an average placement between HSNCT and NSC

I put teams into four tiers. Tier 1 was teams 1-5 and I would not be shocked to see any team in this tier win both nationals. Tier 2 was teams 6-15 and I could see teams winning one nationals with a lot of luck, but there is zero chance they win the other. Tier 3 was teams 16-21 and they will put up high finishes at both nationals, but not contend for the title. Tier 4 was teams 22-25 and basically teams that looked like they could be good to me.

I have some justification for my ranking of specific teams:
1 (TJ) needs no justification. Somebody (most likely Taylor) might get enough NAQT stuff to win HSNCT, but on straight academic stuff TJ is basically unbeatable. I don't expect it, but it would not entirely surprise me if they do not drop a match until HSNCT. I have also heard that they might bring up William Wang, which is why I am not ranking TJ B.
2 (Blair) put up great numbers even without an entire team. I have also heard that Sophia Weng, who does much of the scoring for a very good Blair B team, will also play with them for some nationals, which will make them even better than they already are. This is why I did not rank Blair B.
3 (Taylor) has the highest points per bonus on a non-NAQT set (WHAQ) while already being better at NAQT. Although they graduated Ashwath, their ppb on Sun God was high enough that I don't see that being a factor,
I considered a lot of teams in the 4 slot that had better stats than Uni Lab, but they all lost to Uni at Sun God, so they ended up at 4.
5 (Beavercreek) was the second-best team on both an NAQT set and a non-NAQT set, so they rounded out my Tier 1.
6 (Ladue) is weird because they haven't played much this season. I ranked them this high basically based on their performance on PACE last year, and their rumored study binges over the summer.
21 (Miami Valley) has better stats than everybody around them, but I am still not entirely sure that they can convert those stats into winning games, especially at Nats.
22 (Richard Montgomery) hasn't played a full A team yet, but they are nonetheless a very good team.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

I started by compiling the top P/G and PPB results from the top 40 Groger ranked teams, plus a couple others I believed deserved consideration. In addition, I listed other teams in the top 40 that each team had beaten. From there, I separated each team into "tiers" of 5 teams each for their P/G, PPB, and notable victories. I then combined this into an "overall tier", from which I ranked the teams. In giving out the actual poll rankings, I considered both the statistics of each team as well as intangibles such as their reputation and which team I would rather play against.

I looked at the top 40ish teams. And grouped the ones I wanted to rank into tiers.
Tier 1 TJ tier: 1
Tier 2 contender tier: 2-6
Tier 3 90 tier: 7-12
Tier 4 Funwa tier: 13-16
Tier 5 teams that did well last year (tanabata) tier: 17, 18, 20
Tier 6 m tier: 19, 21-31
Then I sorted within tiers based on stats, finishes, personal expierence, and intangible stuff. IMSA was special so i pu them in the middle of tier 5. Blair B wasn’t ranked bc idk if Sophia will be playing for them. In some cases teams moved between their original tiers if I felt like it. -Not Jack Jack

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

While using the Groger Rankings [and the spreadsheet; it was very helpful!] as somewhat of a guide, I tried to ignore the actual numerical rankings. I saw that the rankings only show each team's best performance, and felt that consistency was necessary to be ranked high. For example, some schools had insanely-high Groger scores at one tournament, but didn't post similar stats at others. Therefore, I ranked them [sometimes much] lower than their Groger rank. In particular, I was extremely cautious about teams that played only one tournament but put up great stats at that one tournament (e.g. Stanford Online, Vestavia Hills, Ladue, Montgomery Blair B). With these teams, I ranked them below (or would have ranked, since the rankings end at 25) teams that may not have had as good single-tournament performances but had relatively-consistent numbers at multiple tournaments.

23 of my 25 teams are teams in the top 25 in the rankings. Numbers 24 and 25 (Montgomery Blair B and Saratoga A) were replaced with numbers 26 and 37 (TJ B and Arcadia A). While it should come at no surprise that the team just outside the top 25 gets in, my ranking of 37th Arcadia A might be somewhat controversial. As an aside, I think that Arcadia's ranking will actually increase as the adjustments change, because IS-181 is currently sitting at -1.18 aPPB, which I think will increase as more teams play the set. I'm obviously biased because I'm from SoCal, but, despite only playing one tournament with most of the regular A team, I know that Arcadia is a top-25 caliber team. In particular, they retain most of their scoring from last year's T-12th HSNCT finish, and I have no doubt that they can return to a similar level.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

TJ is clearly a top contender for national champion, off of Fred, James, and others' excellent coverage and nearly unmatched ability to scale up to hard sets.
Blair is also very strong, and although they maybe haven't displayed their full potential, the depleted roster on WHAQ was already able to propel them to a top position in the rankings, so I'd expect their full team to be even stronger.
I don't know other circuits that well, so 3 to the early teens are largely guesswork on my part.
I honestly believe Hunter is somewhat overranked, which is why they're low compared to their rankings
High Tech > Miami Valley of course (how could it not be)
Chattahoochee was knocked down because of Georgia's stupid five-player team format
The rest are largely based on the rankings with a few shifts that I feel are reasonable
Overall, disclaimer that I'm stupid and don't know what's happening in the rest of the country.

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech A

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech B

Benjamin McAvoy-Bickford

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech A

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech B

if u rly need me to elaborate more, lmk, but for now only doing top 10 to prove i know what im talkin about:
tj is 1 because theyve been posting good stats and did well last year and keep fred and co and replace grant/rohan w equivalently skilled ppl i dont think that rly needs much justification
taylor 2 is probably kind of a hot take but considering willy g is probably the best individual hs player and did rly well at both nats last year and is part of a historically strong program that'll most likely let him partially regenerate whatever loss he sustained by graduating ashwath and will obviously be only getting better, it's by no means a stretch of the imagination
blair 3 is honestly back and forth w taylor, i could see other way around – obvs losing ben is a big deal esp on naqt but anson kat and ian are all v good and can pull good players from their stellar b team last year (matthew seems like the choice rn?)
uni 4 all r v solid players and v balanced and have been putting up insane numbers this year even when missing players, more consistent than 5 auburn because even tho ethan has also been putting up amazing numbers (see hft) uni probably has the edge due to consistency, esp on naqt (which hurts ethan's strength in fa)
dcc 6 honestly not top 5 on naqt but still v good on macf (see hft), given that theyre completely rebuilding from last season and still won hft against lex and hunter, super promising, strong program etc
lex 7 insane on naqt thanks to rommel but solid on pace, 2nd at hft (win over hunter!), puts up good ppbs, didnt play a consistent roster on is-181 (rotated roster), still havent decided definitively on their fourth scorer for nats, but regardless putting up stellar numbers, needs to be more consistent (if 2nd/3rd scorers can put up rommel-level numbers at nats, which seems v probable at the moment, see hft stats, then this wont be a prob)
8 hunter obvs great puts up good power numbers and such daniel is gr8 but needs more support, pedro seems good but is largely redundant w daniel, cerulean puts up good numbers on easy sets but less so on hard, seems to lack lit? lost to lex and dcc at hft
9 stevenson underperforming this season thus far, but still possible to catch up in latter half, theoretically should be doing super well – govind top 3 history/geo player, olivia top 3 lit, arjun is top 10 history and good on other stuff like FA i think, david needs to improve on sci to make sure they can reach full potential
10 hanson is insane, posting super high ppbs, needs to control negging but can take down any team if they do

again if u want more stuff from me lmk im just busy lmao

Reasoning Tier I – Strong teams with best shot at nats. TJ – obvious Blair – Anson put up Strombeck-level stats on WHAQ and he has support from a top-5 science player in Katherine and potentially an almost-equal tier generalist in Sophia. Plus they have like 5 potential fourth scorers who are all quite good. It’ll probably be Ian who is strong in music which may be a weakness for the rest of the squad. Tier II – Also contenders but not as strong. Beavercreek – Hari is a top-5 generalist, and Tegan and Abby are strong specialists. Uni Lab – Ethan Ashbrook is top-3 in lit and RMP, Dylan is top-5ish in art and top-20 in science, Tim has improved tremendously in history and Jonathan is a top-10 specialist in geo and bio. Taylor – Golden is good, kinda just depends on his support at this point. Stevenson – top-3 in lit and history, great at naqt stuff and okay enough at everything else. They suck ass on mACF compared to NAQT. LASA – Chinmay seems washed but the team has enough generalism to put up good numbers. CCA – Raymond put up Strombeck-level stats on WHAQ and Wesley is good on history and NAQT. I think they need to figure out their team situation but with proper lineup, they’re contenders for first. Hunter – DMA is a strong generalist and if he picks the right team, has all bases covered. Much stronger on NAQT. Auburn – Strombeck put up Strombeck-level stats on WHAQ (lol). Leif is pretty good at science but scales up poorly. Ethan told me he’s aiming for a championship after he’s done with college stuff. Chattahoochee – I know very little about this team but they put up solid stats on SGI. Tier III – Top 8 potential but probably not winning Miami Valley – They do great on regs level stuff but kinda fall off at tougher tournaments (see penn bowl stats). Definitely upset potential. They don’t neg but they also don’t power too much on nats stuff. Ladue – History hole. Weak on NAQT as far as I know. Can’t win nats if you don’t have a history player, doesn’t matter if you have an insane science specialist and strong humanities generalist. Lexington – Strong on NAQT because of Nick. Charles and David cover lit/science well enough. Northview – Maybe if they had stats they’d be higher. I also know very little about this team (thanks Georgia). DCC – Good on tossups, meh on bonuses. I like this team though, they feel much more like a qb team and much less than a qb machine than in years past. I think their science coverage is weak, but everything else is strong. IMSA – Hanson is a god but Matthew didn’t improve since last year. Daniel is also strong at stuff Hanson is weak at. Tier IV – I don’t have a clear criterial divide between III and IV but this feels like a natural cutoff. Ithaca – This team is well covered. They seem strong everywhere but it doesn’t look like they have that upset potential. Wayzata – (This is based on if Geoffrey gets unbanned). They’re quite good, but not as good as their Groger rank. I think they’re inflated on that because Geoffrey doesn’t fall off at all as difficulty increases from HS regs to college regs. If Geoffrey comes to nats and also learns RMPSS they will be Tier II level. High Tech – Well covered, I don’t think they scale up too well. Very real knowledge based. St. John’s – If I would have done this manually they wouldn’t be top 25 but I ranked mACF and NAQT separately so they ended up high. They’re alright but they haven’t changed much since last year. Strake Jesuit – Not as good as they seemed from last year’s stats. Who knows. Carnegie Vanguard – idk. Stanford Online – need more stats. Wilmington Charter – It’s close between them, Millburn, and TJ B. Sohum and Waley are good but they have little support in the big 3 they’re not good at (can’t remember if waley does history or lit).

Stanford Online High School A

On the whole, none of the decisions I've made are (in my opinion) really unusual, except for putting Wayzata so far down. The reason for that is simple: the ambiguity around Geoffrey Chen. With Geoffrey, they can easily be a top 8 team. He may well be one of, if not the most, dominant specialists in high school quiz bowl right now. Without him, Wayzata will suffer tremendously; although people like Brian Lin are good, they are (no offense to him) most definitely not at his level. On the whole, I feel like TJ is the best team in the nation, but I feel like Hunter is the current favorite to win HSNCT (not by a massive margin, mind you, but I feel like Hunter, as a whole, is very good at NAQT sets, more so than PACE). This year may well see the fourth consecutive Hunter final, and 3rd win out of 4 years. Also, call it regional bias if you like, but Ithaca is a good team that on a good team can put up a phenomenal performance against any team. I think that just about covers my more interesting changes regarding the list; the others are minor changes (for example, moving Beavercreek one position up).

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech A

Early College at Guilford A

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

Groger Ranks and stats + head to head records + playing experience + regional bias I guess; Wayzata is not included; TJ B is not included mostly because I do not know the roster

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

This is completed under the assumption that Geoffrey does not play for Wayzata at nats. I gave slightly more consideration to housewrite/expected PACE performance than NAQT/expected HSNCT performance. I tried to place emphasis on teams that I believe can scale-up well rather than simply put up great stats on regular difficulty, and teams with more balanced scoring over a single dominant player (ie Uni Lab over Auburn, DCC and Ladue over Beavercreek). I'm probably missing a team or something.

Thomas Jefferson Science and Tech A

Simply averaged the Groger and HSQB ranks of both teams. In the case of a tie, used any similar tournaments or sets to break it. In the case of Dunbar, their Groger rank score consisted of a tournament where they competed with two starters. They haven't yet played a tournament with their full team that is used for Groger ranks. Due to this and an HSQB rank of 26 (despite playing with their full team almost anywhere) I decided to give Dunbar the 25 spot.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

I'll post my detailed analysis on my blog sometime next week, but I looked at a combination of statistics and tournament results this year, past nationals performance, my own anecdotal knowledge, and the three major national rankings (HSQBRank, Groger Ranks, and the Midseason Poll). I did not consider the Preseason Poll that much since it was from five months before.

University of Minnesota Twin Cities

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

https://i.imgur.com/PDNOc8d.png Notice how Wayzata is nowhere to be found! They, unfortunately, do not have a good science player. Rankings are for NSC only since it's the only High School Nationals which actually matters. Ladue 2nd because I believe in their enormous sized brains

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

A permutation of the top 25 teams (-Wayzata). Since I am unfamiliar with many teams nationally, I am slightly biased towards teams discussed favorably in the Discord; I am also slightly biased towards "carry" teams.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

I don't have much time, so I'm only going to address the placement of MSJ. Avinash's improvement (take a look at his CC2 stats) combined with MSJ playing on a stronger circuit than many similarly ranked teams resulted in their placement at #25.

Mission San Jose High School (or Team Escobar)

I'll only explain the surprising rankings:
Vestavia Hills: Walter is a very strong generalist and can easily power multiple categories
Saratoga: Deep fine arts, history, and literature knowledge

don't really have one - my ballot is mostly stats based, and really reflects how well I think teams have the potential to do if they show up to nats with a full roster. I don't know much about teams in areas other than CA and WA/OR.

With Fred and Kuang, TJ has 2 of the best subject players in the nation, and a great supporting cast. Stevenson seems to me like a team that will kill it on the nationals stage and ultimately become the best in IL. UniLab is very strong with four incredible players and I think they are without a doubt top four but will end up a very close second in IL. With Hari, Beavercreek is insane, and after their t-5 run with a stronger supporting cast, I think fourth is a good estimate, though I think they may struggle against the three listed above. William Golden is great, but in such a strong year and lacking his supporting cast, I predict a t-5 finish for him. Blair has so many stellar players that it's hard to keep track, though a t-5 finish also seems reasonable here. With the entire supporting cast and Daniel Ma, Hunter seems poised for a T-5 run as well. I think Ethan will perhaps finish better at PACE, but 8th seems reasonable at HSNCT. As Hanson and IMSA are about as good as Rockford, 8th seems likely as well. Miami Valley is great, but is also a young team, so t-8 this year but next year, more could occur. Wayzata has Geoffrey, the best science player in the country, and great support from Brian, but I'm not sure how they'll measure up against top teams, so t-8 again seems like a safe choice. Due to Chattahoochee's performance against top teams on Sun God, I ranked them here. I think LASA is a very good team, and if they rebuild from their HSNCT performance last year, they could finish in this place. High Tech has unbelievable coverage, especially on arts, and I see a strong finish for them here.The double punch of Nick Rommel and Charles Yang plus Elizabeth and Aarushi will bring Lexington a good nats season. Ithaca is also excellent, and every player really brings deep knowledge to the table there. Ladue is great, but upsets have occurred, but if they get back into the swing of things, a stellar finish could happen. Canyon Crest is ranked highly, but they are young, so I ranked them slightly lower because I think that teams mostly comprised of seniors may surpass them this time around. Northview has consistently put up strong stats, and they play in a competitive circuit, so HSNCT and PACE seem like a place where they are likely to succeed. Shiva and Karan are amazing players, albeit young, so a good finish is likely but again experience is a concern for their ranking. Eshaan Vakil is simply insane at Quiz Bowl, but due to his location gets forgotten, but he will definitely be a force at nationals. Millburn is a hot take, but Dean is an excellent player with motivated teammates, and a top placing seems probable. Alex Pyle is arguably the most underrated generalist in the nation, and I think he can also lead his team to a top finish. Justin Young also gets slept on, but his deep history knowledge and his teammates will lead him to success.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

mainly hugging groger ranks here but I ranked teams which I feel have better balance and thus scaling higher. I did not rank OPRF (F for KHK) because they won't play nationals and I rated Wayzata low because Geoff won't be at nationals.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech A

These are mostly based off of PPB from stats, i preliminarily put a team on here if they had over 22 PPB on an IS set or over 25 PPB on an IS-A set. Then I narrowed it down from there, taking what I thought were the best teams based on P% or previous performances in nationals.I couldn't find tournament results for Taylor with William so I just rated them high based on last year nationals results. I put Chattahoochee on here because they regularly got over 600 PPG on IS sets, but that is under GATA format with bouncebacks so I rated them lower. I tried lowering my regional bias as much as I could.

Thomas Jefferson Science & Tech B

I don't think any of my rankings are too controversial. Since I have not actually played any team I ranked here, I primarily am basing this off of both objective and subjective interpretations of the stats, as well as what seems to be the general consensus of the community.

I know stats and I looked at a lot of stats. I think I have a good knowledge of the hsquizbowl scene