ABCDEFG
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This spreadsheet is an update to previous reasoning we have published (see reasoning here; original values here (2020), and updated values here (2021)). We update these values when investigating grants to these locations.Nigeria (Global Fund states)CameroonZambiaSouth SudanMalawiMadagascar
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Priors
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Probability that Global Fund [and the President's Malaria Initiative (PMI)] spending would replace AMF costs25%25%25%25%25%25%
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Considerations that were informally informing priors, with guess of contribution to priors
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Global funding gaps are relatively small40%40%40%40%40%40%
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Surveys show major gaps in LLIN coverage-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%-10%
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AMF as funder of last resort-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%
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Newly added considerations, with percentage point update on priors
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Malaria funding from the Global Fund has been increasing10%20%0%0%10%0%
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Global Fund allocations are more dynamic than we realized15%15%15%15%15%15%
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PMI provides funding to this location0%10%10%0%10%10%
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Other funders are taking AMF and Malaria Consortium into account10%10%10%10%10%10%
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More funding leads to more room for funding-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%-15%
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AMF is relatively thoughtful about crowding out others, but less so for DRC/Nigeria0%-5%-5%-5%-5%-5%
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Nigeria may be relatively underfunded-10%0%0%0%0%0%
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New values
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Probability that Global Fund and PMI spending would replace AMF costs35%60%40%30%50%40%
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