park factors 1871-2008
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ABCDE
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Abbreviations for Column Headings in Spreadsheet:
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PF_R: Park Factor for Runs
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PF_HR: Park Factor for HR
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PADJ_R: Park Adjustment for Runs. This is the number you would use to adjust a team/player's composite statistics that include both home and road games.
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PADJ_HR: Park Adjustment for HR. This is the number you would use to adjust a team/player's composite statistics that include both home and road games.
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Notes
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1. The Park Factors are based upon a 5-year moving average, unless there are fewer than 5 years available.
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2. Outs for most years prior to 1954, are estimated using the average number of outs per home/away win, loss, and tie, and then reconciled to the total number of league outs on a yearly basis.
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3. Interleague games were removed from 1997-2008.
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4. These Park Factors do not correct for unbalanced scheduling.
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5. Each franchise is assigned a new Park Factor version when:
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a. They move into a new stadium.
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b. The dimensions of their current stadium are significantly altered.
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c. They play a signficant amount of a season(s) in 2 stadiums. For instance, the Brooklyn Dodgers playing 15 games in New Jersey in 1956 and 1957.
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Methods:
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1. Dividing Runs per Out at Home by Runs Per Out on the Road for all of the seasons that fall under the PF Version. Do the same for HR.
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2. Correct for the offset of other parks in the league. This is the initial Park Factor (iPF)
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3. Apply regression using Mitchell Lichtman's equations. This is the final Park Factor
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For 1 year: 1-(1-iPF)*.6
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For 2 years: 1-(1-iPF)*.7
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For 3 years: 1-(1-iPF)*.8
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For 4 years: 1-(1-iPF)*.9
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For 5 years: 1-(1-iPF)*.95
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4. Calculate the Park Adjustment (PADJ) from the final Park Factor. This adjustment takes into account the fact that a team plays half of it's games at home and half on the road.
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Formulas: (Substitute HR for R when calculating the HR PF)
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aPF = (Runs Home / Outs Home) / (Runs Away / Outs Away)
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iPF = aPF * ((N_Teams) / ((N_Teams - 1) + aPF))
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PF = 1 - (1 - iPF) * Regression Rate
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Regression Rate is .6 for 1 year, .7 for 2 years, .8 for 3 years, .9 for 4 years, and .95 for 5 years
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PADJ = (Outs Away + (Outs Home * PF)) / (Outs Home + Outs Away)
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Credits:
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Retrosheet, which is the primary source for most of the data in these spreadsheets
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KJOK for the park homerun information from 1871-1953
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Brian Cartwright for providing his Park Configurations table which I ended-up modifying.
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Mitchel Lichtman for the regression equations.
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Brandon Heipp's for his advice and PF spreadsheet's
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Tom Tango for helping me figure out the Regression rates.
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David Gassko for helping me figure out the Regression Rates
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Any input on the methods I used here would be greatly appreciated.
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terpsfan101@yahoo.com
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Notes
Park Factors