AMZN V2.xlsx

	F	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Y	Z	AB	AC	AD	AE	AF	AG
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6		2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031

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9	North America	51	64	80	106	141	171	236	280	316	353	375
10	Growth		25%	25%	33%	33%	21%	38%	19%	13%	12%	6%
11	International	34	35	44	54	66	75	104	128	118	131	144.1
12	Growth		3%	26%	23%	22%	14%	39%	23%	-8%	11%	10%
13	AWS	5	8	12	17	26	35	45	62	80	91	107
14	Growth		60%	50%	42%	53%	35%	29%	38%	29%	14%	18%
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16	Total Revenue	90	107	136	177	233	281	385	470	514	575	626
17	Growth		19%	27%	30%	32%	21%	37%	22%	9%	12%	9%
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19	Operating Expenses
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21	Cost of sales	63	72	88	112	139	166	233	272	289	305	319
22	Fullfilment	11	13	18	25	34	40	59	75	84	91	98
23	Tech and Infra	9	13	16	23	29	36	43	56	73	86	89
24	Sales and Marketing	4	5	7	10	14	19	22	32	42	44	43
25	G&A	2	2	2	4	4	5	7	9	12	12	12
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27	Total Operating expenses	89	105	131	174	220	266	364	444	500	538	561
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29	Operating Income	1	2	5	3	13	15	21	26	14	37	65
30	Operating Margin	1%	2%	4%	2%	6%	5%	5%	6%	3%	6%	10%
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32	Taxes	0	1	1.4	0.7	1.2	2.4	2.9	4.8	0	7	10
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34	Net Income	1	1	4	2	12	13	18	21	14	30	55
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36	D&A	5	6	8	11	15	22	25	34	42	49	53
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38	Cap Ex	5	5	8	12	13	17	40	61	64	53	70
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40	FCF	1	2	4	1	14	18	3	-6	-8	26	38
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42	Diluted shares out	9.2	9.5	9.7	9.9	10.0	10.1	10.2	10.3	10.2	10.5	10.7
43	Avg Price per share	18	24	33	47	70	88	130	165	125	125	220
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45	Market cap	166	229	319	463	700	887	1326	1700	1275	1313	2354
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47	Market cap/NI	166	229	89	201	59	70	73	80	91	44	42
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49	Cash	17	20	26	31	41	54	44	96	70	86	88
50	LT Debt	8	8	8	25	23	23	32	49	67	58	55
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52	Operating Income by Segment
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54	NA	1.3	2.8	2.4	2.8	7.3	7	8.7	7.3	-2.8	14.9	23
55	International	0	0	-1.3	-3	-2	-1.7	0.7	-1	-7.7	-2.7	3
56	AWS	1	2	3.1	4.3	7.3	9.2	13.5	18.5	22.8	24.6	40
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58	Total Oprerating Income	2.3	4.8	4.2	4.1	12.6	14.5	22.9	24.8	12.3	36.8	66
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60
61	Net Sales																			Operating Margin Guess in 5 years		Operating Income
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63	Online Stores	83	98	91	108	123	141	197	222	220	232	246	259	272	285	300	314	330	347	3%		10
64			18%	-7%	19%	14%	15%	40%	13%	-1%	5%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
65	Physical Stores				6	17	17	16	17	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	27	28	29	3%		1
66			#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	183%	0%	-6%	6%	12%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
67	3rd party seller services			23	32	43	54	80	103	118	140	159	175	191	206	220	233	247	262	10%		25
68			#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	39%	34%	26%	48%	29%	15%	19%	14%	10%	9%	8%	7%	6%	6%	6%
69	Advertising services	1	1	3	5	10	19	25	31	38	47	57	66	74	83	92	100	108	116	30%		32
70			0%	200%	67%	100%	90%	32%	24%	23%	24%	22%	15%	13%	12%	10%	9%	8%	7%
71	Subscription services			6	10	14	13	20	32	35	40	44	48	51	54	57	59	61	64	10%		6
72			#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	67%	40%	-7%	54%	60%	9%	14%	10%	8%	7%	6%	5%	4%	4%	4%
73	AWS	5	8	12	17	26	35	45	62	80	91	107	123	139	155	170	186	200	214	30%		60
74			60%	50%	42%	53%	35%	29%	38%	29%	14%	18%	15%	13%	11%	10%	9%	8%	7%
75	Other						1	2	2	4	5	5	6	7	8	9	10	12	13	10%		1
76			#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	#DIV/0!	100%	0%	100%	25%	0%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%	15%
77	Total	89	107	135	178	233	280	385	469	514	575	640	698	757	815	873	929	987	1045	14%	EBIT	135
78			20%	26%	32%	31%	20%	38%	22%	10%	12%	11%	9%	8%	8%	7%	6%	6%	6%		Tax Rate	17%
79																					NI	112
80																								Upside in 5 yrs	Annualized
81																					Multiple on NI	25	2807	22%	4%
82																						30	3369	46%	8%
83																						33	3705	61%	10%
84																						35	3930	71%	12%
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86																					Market cap today		2300
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