Monkey Cage 2016 House Predictions by District

	A	B	C	D	E	F
1	Year	State	District	Democratic Two-Party Vote Share	Standard Error for Vote Share	Probability of Democratic win

2	2016	alabama	1	0.00	0.00	0
3	2016	alabama	2	34.45	6.02	0.3
4	2016	alabama	3	32.73	6.00	0
5	2016	alabama	4	0.00	0.00	0
6	2016	alabama	5	36.26	5.88	0.8
7	2016	alabama	6	27.84	6.22	0
8	2016	alabama	7	100.00	0.00	100
9	2016	alaska	1	41.91	5.84	8.4
10	2016	arizona	1	51.26	5.94	58.8
11	2016	arizona	2	39.78	6.04	4.2
12	2016	arizona	3	73.24	5.62	100
13	2016	arizona	4	27.66	5.83	0
14	2016	arizona	5	31.73	5.98	0.2
15	2016	arizona	6	30.19	5.97	0.1
16	2016	arizona	7	77.71	6.01	100
17	2016	arizona	8	0.00	0.00	0
18	2016	arizona	9	67.59	5.77	99.8
19	2016	arkansas	1	0.00	0.00	0
20	2016	arkansas	2	34.03	5.89	0.1
21	2016	arkansas	3	0.00	0.00	0
22	2016	arkansas	4	0.00	0.00	0
23	2016	california	1	33.03	6.09	0.1
24	2016	california	2	76.92	6.01	100
25	2016	california	3	63.71	6.09	98.7
26	2016	california	4	31.36	6.09	0.1
27	2016	california	5	77.18	6.19	100
28	2016	california	6	76.58	6.27	100
29	2016	california	7	60.67	6.02	96.8
30	2016	california	8	30.64	5.89	0
31	2016	california	9	70.20	6.06	100
32	2016	california	10	41.53	6.09	8.1
33	2016	california	11	75.60	5.92	100
34	2016	california	12	100.00	0.00	100
35	2016	california	13	86.13	5.85	100
36	2016	california	14	79.15	6.03	100
37	2016	california	15	75.94	5.97	100
38	2016	california	16	66.74	6.13	99.6
39	2016	california	17	78.13	6.01	100
40	2016	california	18	76.06	6.03	100
41	2016	california	19	77.57	6.03	100
42	2016	california	20	65.13	5.96	99.5
43	2016	california	21	41.45	5.82	7.2
44	2016	california	22	30.31	5.81	0.1
45	2016	california	23	28.21	5.88	0
46	2016	california	24	57.09	5.80	89.3
47	2016	california	25	43.89	6.22	16.4
48	2016	california	26	66.78	6.01	99.8
49	2016	california	27	70.54	6.12	100
50	2016	california	28	77.60	6.05	100
51	2016	california	29	100.00	0.00	100
52	2016	california	30	74.81	5.91	100
53	2016	california	31	67.15	6.04	99.8
54	2016	california	32	100.00	0.00	100
55	2016	california	33	71.76	6.12	99.9
56	2016	california	34	100.00	0.00	100
57	2016	california	35	75.73	5.83	100
58	2016	california	36	63.35	5.85	98.6
59	2016	california	37	84.18	6.17	100
60	2016	california	38	74.43	6.03	100
61	2016	california	39	35.80	6.37	0.8
62	2016	california	40	82.45	6.12	100
63	2016	california	41	69.22	6.11	99.9
64	2016	california	42	32.58	5.91	0
65	2016	california	43	80.42	6.02	100
66	2016	california	44	100.00	0.00	100
67	2016	california	45	31.72	5.96	0
68	2016	california	46	100.00	0.00	100
69	2016	california	47	70.33	6.01	100
70	2016	california	48	33.55	6.07	0.3
71	2016	california	49	40.33	5.91	4.8
72	2016	california	50	29.11	5.92	0
73	2016	california	51	75.44	5.88	100
74	2016	california	52	62.31	5.85	98.9
75	2016	california	53	68.03	6.07	99.6
76	2016	colorado	1	74.11	6.05	100
77	2016	colorado	2	67.81	6.06	99.8
78	2016	colorado	3	43.79	6.04	16.6
79	2016	colorado	4	29.84	5.84	0
80	2016	colorado	5	28.21	6.10	0
81	2016	colorado	6	58.02	6.04	90.6
82	2016	colorado	7	68.54	6.01	99.9
83	2016	connecticut	1	71.40	5.98	100
84	2016	connecticut	2	67.29	6.01	99.9
85	2016	connecticut	3	71.37	5.73	100
86	2016	connecticut	4	64.25	5.90	99.5
87	2016	connecticut	5	63.87	6.00	98.5
88	2016	delaware	1	60.21	5.99	95.8
89	2016	florida	1	30.81	5.67	0
90	2016	florida	2	34.88	5.68	0.2
91	2016	florida	3	40.85	5.84	5.6
92	2016	florida	4	32.20	5.89	0.1
93	2016	florida	5	71.35	6.08	100
94	2016	florida	6	55.76	5.82	83.8
95	2016	florida	7	43.55	5.97	13.2
96	2016	florida	8	32.72	5.82	0.1
97	2016	florida	9	66.66	5.98	99.6
98	2016	florida	10	67.18	5.83	99.7
99	2016	florida	11	35.82	5.77	0.7
100	2016	florida	12	34.26	6.10	0.4