Excess Pneumonia Deaths and COVID-19

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L
1	Column	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
2	Reporting Rank	State	Reported COVID-19 Deaths	All Pneumonia Deaths	COVID-19 & Pneumonia Deaths	Unclassified Pneumonia Deaths	5-Year Average Pneumonia Deaths	Percent of Expected Pneumonia Deaths	Excess Pneumonia Deaths	Probable COVID-19 Deaths	Percentage of COVID-19 Deaths Reported
3	1	Alaska	0	56	0	56	17.2	326%	39	39	0%
4	2	Wyoming	0	105	0	105	38.2	275%	67	67	0%
5	3	Montana	16	169	0	169	51.8	326%	117	133	12%
6	4	Arkansas	82	676	22	654	218.8	299%	435	517	16%
7	5	West Virginia	55	448	13	435	151.6	287%	283	338	16%
8	6	Hawaii	16	237	0	237	169	140%	68	84	19%
9	7	Tennessee	255	1,726	108	1,618	535.8	302%	1082	1337	19%
10	8	North Dakota	32	171	12	159	47.2	337%	112	144	22%
11	9	Maine	75	367	17	350	93	376%	257	332	23%
12	10	Oklahoma	224	996	93	903	218.6	413%	684	908	25%
13	11	Texas	1,094	4,719	465	4,254	1007	422%	3247	4341	25%
14	12	Kentucky	282	1,257	144	1,113	296.6	375%	816	1098	26%
15	13	Oregon	149	588	58	530	138	384%	392	541	28%
16	14	South Dakota	44	196	17	179	67	267%	112	156	28%
17	15	Nebraska	101	402	32	370	119	311%	251	352	29%
18	16	Utah	78	343	31	312	126.6	246%	185	263	30%
19	17	North Carolina	245	1,257	95	1,162	645.6	180%	516	761	32%
20	18	Kansas	171	585	74	511	190.2	269%	321	492	35%
21	19	Idaho	75	231	24	207	66.6	311%	140	215	35%
22	20	Florida	1,835	5,248	960	4,288	921.4	465%	3367	5202	35%
23	21	South Carolina	360	1,043	141	902	242.8	371%	659	1019	35%
24	22	Vermont	52	123	12	111	26.2	424%	85	137	38%
25	23	Arizona	609	1,555	309	1,246	285.8	436%	960	1569	39%
26	24	California	2,717	7,900	1,526	6,374	2095.4	304%	4279	6996	39%
27	25	Iowa	292	673	67	606	173.2	350%	433	725	40%
28	26	Wisconsin	432	966	68	898	321.8	279%	576	1008	43%
29	27	Missouri	526	1,284	185	1,099	414.2	265%	685	1211	43%
30	28	Alabama	449	1,037	127	910	361.8	252%	548	997	45%
31	29	Mississippi	402	944	178	766	275.8	278%	490	892	45%
32	30	Minnesota	682	1,134	207	927	180.2	514%	747	1429	48%
33	31	New Mexico	196	419	86	333	121	275%	212	408	48%
34	32	Washington	768	1,462	410	1,052	255.6	412%	796	1564	49%
35	33	Nevada	306	756	227	529	212	250%	317	623	49%
36	34	New Hampshire	177	315	58	257	77.4	332%	180	357	50%
37	35	Ohio	1,124	2,373	479	1,894	763.2	248%	1131	2255	50%
38	36	Indiana	1,492	2,193	661	1,532	323.2	474%	1209	2701	55%
39	37	Georgia	1,200	1,935	558	1,377	488.4	282%	889	2089	57%
40	38	Virginia	987	1,407	337	1,070	427.8	250%	642	1629	61%
41	39	Colorado	1,135	1,388	605	783	190.8	410%	592	1727	66%
42	40	Illinois	3,400	4,183	1,777	2,406	779.8	309%	1626	5026	68%
43	41	District of Columbia	234	363	234	129	26.2	492%	103	337	69%
44	42	Maryland	1,880	1,864	693	1,171	346.6	338%	824	2704	70%
45	43	Delaware	217	220	85	135	50.4	268%	85	302	72%
46	44	Michigan	3,904	3,935	1,973	1,962	591.4	332%	1371	5275	74%
47	45	Rhode Island	360	288	136	152	63	241%	89	449	80%
48	46	Pennsylvania	4,628	3,812	1,768	2,044	916.8	223%	1127	5755	80%
49	47	Louisiana	1,830	1,456	813	643	247.4	260%	396	2226	82%
50	48	Massachusetts	5,416	3,554	1,949	1,605	489.6	328%	1115	6531	83%
51	49	New Jersey	9,280	6,492	4,594	1,898	451.8	420%	1446	10726	87%
52	50	New York	26,058	16,116	11,068	5,048	1602	315%	3446	29504	88%
53	51	Connecticut	918	438	195	243	229.2	106%	14	932	99%
54	52	Total for US	76860	91405	33691	57714	18150	317%	39563	116423	66%
55
56	Methods
57	All COVID-19/pneumonia death data for 2020 collected from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm									Last updated 5/27/2020
58	Historical pneumonia death data collected from: https://wonder.cdc.gov/ucd-icd10.html
59		Historical death data taken for 2014-2018 (five years), during the months of February-May, and the final count was divided by 5
60		Historical pneumonia deaths under the ICD10 classifiers J12-J18.9 were tabulated (as indicated on the CDC website for 2020 data)
61	Percentage of expected deaths (Column 7) calculated by dividing the number of unclassified pneumonia deaths (Column 5) by the 5-year average number of pneumonia deaths (Column 6)
62	Unclassified pneumonia deaths (Column 5) calculated by subtracting the number of deaths known to be pneumonia AND COVID-19 (Column 4) from the number of all deaths due to pneumonia (Column 3)
63	Excess pneumonia deaths (Column 8) calculated by subtracting the 5-year average number of pneumonia deaths (Column 6) from the number of unclassified pneumonia deaths (Column 5)
64	Probable COVID-19 deaths (Column 9) calculated by adding the number of reported COVID-19 deaths (Column 1) to the number of excess pneumonia deaths (Column 8)
65	Reported percentage of COVID-19 deaths (Column 10) calculated by dividing the number of reported COVID-19 deaths (Column 1) by the actual number of COVID-19 deaths (Column 9)
66
67	Notes
68	Current CDC data is only current to 5/23/20, whereas historical data is taken through the end of May. This means that approximately one week of "pneumonia" deaths from this year were not included in the comparison, and thus the actual number of historical pneumonia deaths that should be compared against is slightly lower (~6.25%)
69	It is possible that deaths due to COVID-19 are being counted under ICD10 codes other than the J12-J18.9 viral pneumonia classifier or the U07.1 classifier made for COVID-19
70	Note that the current number of deaths definitively attributed to COVID-19 in this data is lower than what is currently reported in the media (~100,000). The CDC website explains that this can be attributed to a lag in reporting/coding of COVID-19 deaths (bottom of https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm)
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