Monopoly Politics 2016
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Monopoly Politics 20162016 High-Confidence Projections
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FairVote’s projections for 2016 U.S. House races are based entirely on national and district-level election results from the three most recent Federal elections. The projected result in each district (Column N) is equal to the district’s partisanship (Column G), plus a projection for the candidates’ performance over a generic candidate of their party and incumbency status (Column L), plus the impact of the national party preference and average incumbency bump for the election (Column M). Projected performance vs. partisanship is based on current incumbents’ results in previous contests, adjusted for the national partisan swing of that election and their status as an incumbent, challenger, or candidate for an open seat. All values are in terms of voteshare for the Democratic candidate. See the "Methodology" tab for a full explanation.
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District Partisanship+2016 POAC Projection+Partisan Swing and
Incumbency Bump Impact
= Projected Dem. %
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For more information visit: http://www.fairvote.org/monopoly_politics
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2016 Competition RatingsFull Projections
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Projections based on:
Safe Republican:
179Safe Democratic:146
Republican Seats:
243
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2016 National Party Preference (Dem. %)50.0%
Likely Republican:
26Likely Democratic:15
Democratic Seats:
192
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Lean Republican:
25Lean Democratic:26If No Incumbents
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2016 Average Incumbency Bump2.77%
Toss Up (Slight R):
13Toss Up (Slight D):5
Republican Seats:
237
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Total R:243Total D:192
Democratic Seats:
198
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Last Updated:28 September 2016
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StateCDIncumbentPartyYear First ElectedDistrict Partisanship (Dem. %)Performance over Average Candidate (POAC)2016 POAC Projection (Dem. %)Partisan Swing and Incumbency Bump Impact (Dem. %)Projected Dem. %High-Confidence ProjectionsFull
Projections
Competition Ratings
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201420122010Average
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Alabama1Bradley Byrne(R)201335.8%-0.6%6.5%2.9%-0.99%-2.35%32.5%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama2Martha Roby(R)201034.8%-2.5%-4.1%-15.3%-7.3%4.56%-2.35%37.0%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama3Mike Rogers(R)200235.3%-3.2%-3.1%-8.9%-5.1%3.67%-2.35%36.6%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama4Robert Aderholt(R)199622.6%-5.8%-5.8%4.93%-2.35%25.2%RSafe RSafe R
19
Alabama5Mo Brooks(R)201033.5%-3.9%-11.0%-7.5%6.34%-2.35%37.5%RSafe RSafe R
20
Alabama6Gary Palmer(R)201423.2%-2.4%-2.4%0.36%-0.42%23.2%RSafe RSafe R
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Alabama7Terri Sewell(D)201070.7%-1.3%7.3%3.0%2.56%2.35%75.6%DSafe DSafe D
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AlaskaALDon Young(R)197341.0%-10.3%7.6%-3.1%-1.9%4.51%-2.35%43.1%RSafe RLikely R
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Arizona1
OPEN SEAT (Ann Kirkpatrick)
(D)201246.8%5.0%3.2%4.7%N/A0.00%46.8%No projectionLean RLean R
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Arizona2Martha McSally(R)201447.3%-1.8%4.2%1.2%0.27%-2.35%45.2%No projectionLean RLean R
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Arizona3Raul Grijalva(D)200260.3%-5.4%-5.7%-1.4%-4.2%-3.96%2.35%58.7%DSafe DSafe D
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Arizona4Paul Gosar(R)201029.9%-2.5%-2.4%-4.7%-3.2%2.49%-2.35%30.1%RSafe RSafe R
27
Arizona5
OPEN SEAT (Matt Salmon)
(R)201233.4%-1.7%2.6%N/A0.00%33.4%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona6David Schweikert(R)201037.7%-2.1%0.0%-0.8%-1.0%1.22%-2.35%36.6%RSafe RSafe R
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Arizona7Ruben Gallego(D)201470.6%0.00%0.42%71.1%DSafe DSafe D
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Arizona8Trent Franks(R)200235.6%-2.5%-5.8%-4.1%3.51%-2.35%36.8%RSafe RSafe R
31
Arizona9Kyrsten Sinema(D)201250.3%5.5%-0.1%2.7%3.48%2.35%56.1%DSafe DLikely D
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Arkansas1Rick Crawford(R)201035.7%-3.9%-7.9%-13.5%-8.4%5.60%-2.35%38.9%RSafe RSafe R
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Arkansas2J. French Hill(R)201442.1%-6.6%-6.6%0.99%-0.42%42.7%RSafe RLikely R
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Arkansas3Steve Womack(R)201031.1%0.0%0.0%-0.03%-2.35%28.7%RSafe RSafe R
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Arkansas4Bruce Westerman(R)201435.1%-11.9%-11.9%1.79%-0.42%36.5%RSafe RSafe R
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California1Doug La Malfa(R)201239.9%-3.8%-0.7%-2.2%2.55%-2.35%40.1%RSafe RSafe R
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California2Jared Huffman(D)201269.0%5.1%0.2%2.6%3.29%2.35%74.7%DSafe DSafe D
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California3John Garamendi(D)200953.6%-1.8%-5.9%-2.2%-3.3%-2.29%2.35%53.7%No projectionLean DLean D
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California4Tom McClintock(R)200838.8%-2.6%-0.8%-1.7%1.43%-2.35%37.9%RSafe RSafe R
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California5Mike Thompson(D)199869.1%-1.2%2.8%0.8%0.71%2.35%72.2%DSafe DSafe D
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California6Doris Matsui(D)200568.4%3.4%0.1%5.9%3.1%2.75%2.35%73.5%DSafe DSafe D
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California7Ami Bera(D)201250.0%-0.5%4.2%1.8%0.56%2.35%53.0%No projectionToss Up-DToss Up
43
California8Paul Cook(R)201241.1%4.1%4.1%-3.45%-2.35%35.3%RSafe RSafe R
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California9Jerry McNerney(D)200656.9%-5.4%-7.8%-1.5%-4.9%-4.34%2.35%54.9%No projectionLean DLean D
45
California10Jeff Denham(R)201049.8%1.3%0.0%4.3%1.9%-1.42%-2.35%46.1%No projectionLean RLean R
46
California11Mark DeSaulnier(D)201466.8%2.3%2.3%0.35%0.42%67.6%DSafe DSafe D
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California12Nancy Pelosi(D)198783.8%-1.5%-5.3%0.5%-2.1%-1.54%2.35%84.6%DSafe DSafe D
48
California13Barbara Lee(D)199887.3%0.3%2.6%1.4%0.75%2.35%90.4%DSafe DSafe D
49
California14Jackie Speier(D)2007.573.3%2.5%-0.9%5.3%2.3%2.01%2.35%77.7%DSafe DSafe D
50
California15Eric Swalwell(D)201267.1%1.8%1.8%1.53%2.35%71.0%DSafe DSafe D
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California16Jim Costa(D)200457.6%-7.8%-6.7%-5.9%-6.8%-6.11%2.35%53.9%No projectionLean DLean D
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California17Mike Honda(D)200071.2%-4.2%1.5%-1.3%-1.14%2.35%72.4%DSafe DSafe D
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California18Anna Eshoo(D)199267.7%-0.8%-3.7%0.2%-1.4%-1.01%2.35%69.0%DSafe DSafe D
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California19Zoe Lofgren(D)199470.4%-3.6%6.0%1.2%1.01%2.35%73.7%DSafe DSafe D
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California20OPEN SEAT (Sam Farr)(D)199370.4%-2.8%-1.0%N/A0.00%70.4%DSafe DSafe D
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California21David Valadao(R)201253.6%6.7%13.3%10.0%-7.14%-2.35%44.1%No projectionLean RLean R
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California22Devin Nunes(R)200240.5%7.9%-0.1%3.9%-5.02%-2.35%33.2%RSafe RSafe R
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California23Kevin McCarthy(R)200635.3%5.5%5.5%-4.68%-2.35%28.3%RSafe RSafe R
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California24
OPEN SEAT (Lois Capps)
(D)199853.5%-2.5%-4.9%-3.5%N/A0.00%53.5%No projectionLean DLean D
60
California25Steve Knight(R)201447.1%0.00%-0.42%46.7%No projectionLean RLean R
61
California26Julia Brownley(D)201253.2%-2.7%-2.5%-2.6%-2.27%2.35%53.3%No projectionLean DLean D
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California27Judy Chu(D)200961.8%-3.3%-4.4%4.9%-0.9%-1.61%2.35%62.6%DSafe DSafe D
63
California28Adam Schiff(D)200069.9%0.1%0.8%0.4%0.38%2.35%72.7%DSafe DSafe D
64
California29Tony Cardenas(D)201276.3%-2.5%-2.5%-2.16%2.35%76.5%DSafe DSafe D
65
California30Brad Sherman(D)198264.6%0.1%1.5%0.8%0.41%2.35%67.4%DSafe DSafe D
66
California31Pete Aguilar(D)201456.3%-2.7%-2.7%-0.41%0.42%56.3%No projectionSafe DLikely D
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California32Grace Napolitano(D)199864.4%-5.6%-5.2%4.4%-2.1%-3.00%2.35%63.7%DSafe DSafe D
68
California33Ted Lieu(D)201459.9%1.2%1.2%0.17%0.42%60.5%DSafe DSafe D
69
California34Xavier Becerra(D)199282.5%-3.4%5.7%1.2%1.00%2.35%85.8%DSafe DSafe D
70
California35Norma Torres(D)201466.4%0.00%0.42%66.9%DSafe DSafe D
71
California36Raul Ruiz(D)201249.6%3.7%5.8%4.7%3.58%2.35%55.6%No projectionLean DLean D
72
California37Karen Bass(D)201084.1%-0.7%-4.2%6.0%0.3%-0.07%2.35%86.4%DSafe DSafe D
73
California38Linda Sanchez(D)200264.0%-5.8%-2.9%2.4%-2.1%-3.03%2.35%63.3%DSafe DSafe D
74
California39Ed Royce(R)199246.2%10.1%1.5%2.9%4.8%-5.87%-2.35%38.0%RSafe RSafe R
75
California40Lucille Roybal-Allard(D)199280.5%4.1%4.1%3.51%2.35%86.4%DSafe DSafe D
76
California41Mark Takano(D)201260.6%-4.9%-3.7%-4.3%-3.88%2.35%59.1%DSafe DSafe D
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California42Ken Calvert(R)199240.5%1.6%-1.4%-5.8%-1.9%0.43%-2.35%38.6%RSafe RSafe R
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California43Maxine Waters(D)199077.0%-6.9%-2.8%-4.9%-5.02%2.35%74.4%DSafe DSafe D
79
California44
OPEN SEAT (Janice Hahn)
(D)201183.6%N/A0.00%83.6%DSafe DSafe D
80
California45Mimi Walters(R)201442.1%5.4%5.4%-0.80%-0.42%40.9%RSafe RSafe R
81
California46
OPEN SEAT (Loretta Sanchez)
(D)199660.6%-1.8%-3.3%-0.7%N/A0.00%60.6%DSafe DSafe D
82
California47Alan Lowenthal(D)201259.3%-4.2%-4.7%-4.4%-3.66%2.35%58.0%DSafe DLikely D
83
California48Dana Rohrabacher(R)198842.2%1.6%0.7%-0.7%0.5%-0.83%-2.35%39.0%RSafe RSafe R
84
California49Darrell Issa(R)200044.7%0.2%0.3%0.7%0.4%-0.27%-2.35%42.1%RSafe RLikely R
85
California50Duncan D. Hunter(R)200836.6%3.2%1.8%0.4%1.8%-1.99%-2.35%32.3%RSafe RSafe R
86
California51Juan Vargas(D)201268.3%-0.4%1.2%0.4%0.02%2.35%70.7%DSafe DSafe D
87
California52Scott Peters(D)201251.2%-0.5%2.4%1.0%0.19%2.35%53.8%No projectionLean DLean D
88
California53Susan Davis(D)200060.5%-2.6%-5.6%-1.4%-3.2%-2.50%2.35%60.4%DSafe DSafe D
89
Colorado1Diana DeGette(D)199668.1%0.4%-2.8%-2.0%-1.5%-0.60%2.35%69.9%DSafe DSafe D
90
Colorado2Jared Polis(D)200857.2%-1.4%-4.7%-1.9%-2.6%-1.80%2.35%57.8%DSafe DLikely D
91
Colorado3Scott Tipton(R)201045.0%0.7%-1.0%-2.1%-0.8%0.17%-2.35%42.8%RSafe RLikely R
92
Colorado4Ken Buck(R)201438.4%4.0%4.0%-0.60%-0.42%37.4%RSafe RSafe R
93
Colorado5Doug Lamborn(R)200637.6%-7.2%-2.2%-4.7%5.08%-2.35%40.4%RSafe RSafe R
94
Colorado6Mike Coffman(R)200850.6%-0.7%-0.8%2.2%0.2%0.12%-2.35%48.3%No projectionToss Up-RToss Up
95
Colorado7Ed Perlmutter(D)200655.4%-1.2%-5.2%-0.5%-2.3%-1.59%2.35%56.2%DSafe DLikely D
96
Connecticut
1John Larson(D)199861.5%0.9%3.5%-1.4%1.0%0.84%2.35%64.7%DSafe DSafe D
97
Connecticut
2Joe Courtney(D)200654.5%8.3%8.9%4.1%7.1%6.43%2.35%63.3%DSafe DSafe D
98
Connecticut
3Rosa DeLauro(D)199061.5%4.7%6.7%5.4%5.6%4.44%2.35%68.3%DSafe DSafe D
99
Connecticut
4Jim Himes(D)200853.5%-0.7%-0.1%-4.0%-1.6%-1.04%2.35%54.9%No projectionLean DLean D
100
Connecticut
5Elizabeth Esty(D)201252.5%0.4%-3.2%-1.4%-0.43%2.35%54.5%No projectionLean DLean D
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