| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | peak infected is lower when the t=0 exposed fraction is 0.05 than when it is 0.0001 or some other small number. Beta=1.8, duration of exposed 3, duration of infectious 6 | time | Susceptible | Exposed | Infected | Recovered | Change in exposed | Increase in exposed | Decrease in exposed | Change in infected | Increase in infected | Decrease in infected | Cell ref for INDIRECT function: “duration of exposure” number of lines before the current line | Line number | Cell ref for INDIRECT function: “duration of infection” number of lines before the current line | |||||||||||
2 | t=0 exposed fraction of population | -20 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -1 | 2 | -4 | |||||||||||||||||
3 | 0.000100 | compare peak infected to 0.05 | -19 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 3 | -3 | ||||||||||||||||
4 | beta: how many people per period does a susceptible person meet closely enough to get infected by them if they are infected. | -18 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 4 | -2 | |||||||||||||||||
5 | 1.80 | -17 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 5 | -1 | |||||||||||||||||
6 | duration of exposed but not infectious period | -16 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 | 6 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||
7 | 3 | -15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
8 | duration of infectious period | -14 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||
9 | 6 | -13 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 | 9 | 3 | |||||||||||||||||
10 | if exposed+infected duration >-start time (here 20), then need to add rows with more time periods | -12 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7 | 10 | 4 | |||||||||||||||||
11 | -11 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 | 11 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||
12 | gamma=1/duration would be the recovery probability per period in the standard SIR model with exponentially distributed disease duration | -10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9 | 12 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||
13 | 0.167 | -9 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 | 13 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
14 | peak infected fraction | -8 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 | 14 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||
15 | 0.74 | -7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12 | 15 | 9 | |||||||||||||||||
16 | -6 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 13 | 16 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||
17 | -5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14 | 17 | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||
18 | -4 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15 | 18 | 12 | ||||||||||||||||||
19 | -3 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16 | 19 | 13 | ||||||||||||||||||
20 | -2 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17 | 20 | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||
21 | -1 | 1.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 18 | 21 | 15 | ||||||||||||
22 | time zero | 0 | 1.00 | 0.000100 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000100 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 19 | 22 | 16 | |||||||||||
23 | 1 | 1.00 | 0.000100 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 20 | 23 | 17 | ||||||||||||
24 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.000100 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 21 | 24 | 18 | ||||||||||||
25 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000100 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 22 | 25 | 19 | ||||||||||||
26 | 4 | 1.00 | 0.000180 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000180 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 23 | 26 | 20 | ||||||||||||
27 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.000360 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000180 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 24 | 27 | 21 | ||||||||||||
28 | 6 | 1.00 | 0.000540 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000180 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25 | 28 | 22 | ||||||||||||
29 | 7 | 1.00 | 0.000540 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000180 | 0.000180 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 26 | 29 | 23 | ||||||||||||
30 | 8 | 1.00 | 0.000863 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000504 | 0.000180 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27 | 30 | 24 | ||||||||||||
31 | 9 | 1.00 | 0.001510 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000827 | 0.000180 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 28 | 31 | 25 | ||||||||||||
32 | 10 | 1.00 | 0.002300 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.000970 | 0.000180 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 29 | 32 | 26 | ||||||||||||
33 | 11 | 1.00 | 0.003088 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.001291 | 0.000504 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 30 | 33 | 27 | ||||||||||||
34 | 12 | 0.99 | 0.004453 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.002192 | 0.000827 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31 | 34 | 28 | ||||||||||||
35 | 13 | 0.99 | 0.007149 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.003666 | 0.000970 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 32 | 35 | 29 | ||||||||||||
36 | 14 | 0.98 | 0.010917 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.005059 | 0.001291 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 33 | 36 | 30 | ||||||||||||
37 | 15 | 0.98 | 0.015728 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.007003 | 0.002192 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34 | 37 | 31 | ||||||||||||
38 | 16 | 0.97 | 0.022557 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.010495 | 0.003666 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35 | 38 | 32 | ||||||||||||
39 | 17 | 0.95 | 0.033949 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.016451 | 0.005059 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 36 | 39 | 33 | ||||||||||||
40 | 18 | 0.93 | 0.050912 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.023967 | 0.007003 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 37 | 40 | 34 | ||||||||||||
41 | 19 | 0.89 | 0.074083 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.033666 | 0.010495 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 38 | 41 | 35 | ||||||||||||
42 | 20 | 0.85 | 0.105387 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.047755 | 0.016451 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 39 | 42 | 36 | ||||||||||||
43 | 21 | 0.78 | 0.149688 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.068268 | 0.023967 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 40 | 43 | 37 | ||||||||||||
44 | 22 | 0.68 | 0.209233 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.093211 | 0.033666 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 41 | 44 | 38 | ||||||||||||
45 | 23 | 0.56 | 0.280437 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.118958 | 0.047755 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 42 | 45 | 39 | ||||||||||||
46 | 24 | 0.42 | 0.353848 | 0.20 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.141679 | 0.068268 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 43 | 46 | 40 | ||||||||||||
47 | 25 | 0.27 | 0.413454 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.152816 | 0.093211 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 44 | 47 | 41 | ||||||||||||
48 | 26 | 0.13 | 0.432393 | 0.39 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.137898 | 0.118958 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 45 | 48 | 42 | ||||||||||||
49 | 27 | 0.04 | 0.382737 | 0.50 | 0.07 | -0.05 | 0.092023 | 0.141679 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 46 | 49 | 43 | ||||||||||||
50 | 28 | 0.00 | 0.266613 | 0.62 | 0.11 | -0.12 | 0.036692 | 0.152816 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 47 | 50 | 44 | ||||||||||||
51 | 29 | 0.00 | 0.132964 | 0.71 | 0.15 | -0.13 | 0.004249 | 0.137898 | 0.09 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 48 | 51 | 45 | ||||||||||||
52 | 30 | 0.00 | 0.040353 | 0.74 | 0.22 | -0.09 | -0.000588 | 0.092023 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 49 | 52 | 46 | ||||||||||||
53 | 31 | 0.00 | 0.003833 | 0.68 | 0.32 | -0.04 | 0.000172 | 0.036692 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 50 | 53 | 47 | ||||||||||||
54 | 32 | 0.00 | -0.000468 | 0.57 | 0.44 | 0.00 | -0.000052 | 0.004249 | -0.11 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 51 | 54 | 48 | ||||||||||||
55 | 33 | 0.00 | 0.000130 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.000010 | -0.000588 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 52 | 55 | 49 | ||||||||||||
56 | 34 | 0.00 | -0.000042 | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000172 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 53 | 56 | 50 | ||||||||||||
57 | 35 | 0.00 | 0.000009 | 0.13 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | -0.000052 | -0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 54 | 57 | 51 | ||||||||||||
58 | 36 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.04 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000010 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 55 | 58 | 52 | ||||||||||||
59 | 37 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | -0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 56 | 59 | 53 | ||||||||||||
60 | 38 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 57 | 60 | 54 | ||||||||||||
61 | 39 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 58 | 61 | 55 | ||||||||||||
62 | 40 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 59 | 62 | 56 | ||||||||||||
63 | 41 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 60 | 63 | 57 | ||||||||||||
64 | 42 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 61 | 64 | 58 | ||||||||||||
65 | 43 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 62 | 65 | 59 | ||||||||||||
66 | 44 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 63 | 66 | 60 | ||||||||||||
67 | 45 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 64 | 67 | 61 | ||||||||||||
68 | 46 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 65 | 68 | 62 | ||||||||||||
69 | 47 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 66 | 69 | 63 | ||||||||||||
70 | 48 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 67 | 70 | 64 | ||||||||||||
71 | 49 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 68 | 71 | 65 | ||||||||||||
72 | 50 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 69 | 72 | 66 | ||||||||||||
73 | 51 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 70 | 73 | 67 | ||||||||||||
74 | 52 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 71 | 74 | 68 | ||||||||||||
75 | 53 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 72 | 75 | 69 | ||||||||||||
76 | 54 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 73 | 76 | 70 | ||||||||||||
77 | 55 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 74 | 77 | 71 | ||||||||||||
78 | 56 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 75 | 78 | 72 | ||||||||||||
79 | 57 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 76 | 79 | 73 | ||||||||||||
80 | 58 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 77 | 80 | 74 | ||||||||||||
81 | 59 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 78 | 81 | 75 | ||||||||||||
82 | 60 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 79 | 82 | 76 | ||||||||||||
83 | 61 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 80 | 83 | 77 | ||||||||||||
84 | 62 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 81 | 84 | 78 | ||||||||||||
85 | 63 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 82 | 85 | 79 | ||||||||||||
86 | 64 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 83 | 86 | 80 | ||||||||||||
87 | 65 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 84 | 87 | 81 | ||||||||||||
88 | 66 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 85 | 88 | 82 | ||||||||||||
89 | 67 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 86 | 89 | 83 | ||||||||||||
90 | 68 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 87 | 90 | 84 | ||||||||||||
91 | 69 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 88 | 91 | 85 | ||||||||||||
92 | 70 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 89 | 92 | 86 | ||||||||||||
93 | 71 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 90 | 93 | 87 | ||||||||||||
94 | 72 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 91 | 94 | 88 | ||||||||||||
95 | 73 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 92 | 95 | 89 | ||||||||||||
96 | 74 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 93 | 96 | 90 | ||||||||||||
97 | 75 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 94 | 97 | 91 | ||||||||||||
98 | 76 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 95 | 98 | 92 | ||||||||||||
99 | 77 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 96 | 99 | 93 | ||||||||||||
100 | 78 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 97 | 100 | 94 |