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1
Number of players4
Team name:
Bayesianwitchesand their clones
2
Player 10
random →
credits: Mikhail Samin, Android Ruberoid
3
Player 20
Instructions:
Write your names in the table to the left.
4
Player 30
Everyone gets a possible answer. Write how likely you think it is the true one.
5
Player 40
Your goal is to score as many points as possible in total. A well-calibrated probability gets you more points.
6
Player 50
Write the probabilities in turn so that the history of the upfdates is visible.
7
Player 60
If you don't intend to change the probability this turn (until someone else changes theirs), put !, -, x, or another non-numeric character.
Pin the top
8
Total0
On the right you can see how many points you'll get if your answer is correct, and how many if not.
9
Points if yesPoints if noTeam pointsAnswersPlayers
10
100 log₂ (4p)
100 log₂ ((4/3) (1-p))
11
12
13
Questions
14
15
Question 1q1
16
17
Player 1000Player 1
18
Player 2000Player 2
19
Player 3000Player 3
20
Player 4000Player 4
23
24
25
Question 2q2
26
27
Player 1000Player 1
28
Player 2000Player 2
29
Player 3000Player 3
30
Player 4000Player 4
33
34
35
Question 3q3
36
37
Player 1000Player 1
38
Player 2000Player 2
39
Player 3000Player 3
40
Player 4000Player 4
43
44
45
Question 4q4
46
47
Player 1000Player 1
48
Player 2000Player 2
49
Player 3000Player 3
50
Player 4000Player 4
53
54
55
Question 5q5
56
57
Player 1000Player 1
58
Player 2000Player 2
59
Player 3000Player 3
60
Player 4000Player 4
63
64
65
Question 6q6
66
67
Player 1000Player 1
68
Player 2000Player 2
69
Player 3000Player 3
70
Player 4000Player 4
73
74
75
Question 7q7
76
77
Player 1000Player 1
78
Player 2000Player 2
79
Player 3000Player 3
80
Player 4000Player 4
83
84
85
Question 8q8
86
87
Player 1000Player 1
88
Player 2000Player 2
89
Player 3000Player 3
90
Player 4000Player 4
93
94
95
Question 9q9
96
97
Player 1000Player 1
98
Player 2000Player 2
99
Player 3000Player 3
100
Player 4000Player 4
103
104
105
Question 10q10
106
107
Player 1000Player 1
108
Player 2000Player 2
109
Player 3000Player 3
110
Player 4000Player 4
113
114
115
Question 11q11
116
117
Player 1000Player 1
118
Player 2000Player 2
119
Player 3000Player 3
120
Player 4000Player 4