21.xlsx

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W	X	Z	AA	AB	AC	AF	AH	AI	AJ	AK
1	Day	Actual Dates	Vaccinated population	Vaccines supplied (Nos)	Daily Growth %	Forecast Dates	Forecast Vaccinated population	Eponential Smoothed Average (A)	Exponential Smoothed Trend (T)	Exponential Vaccine Supply Forecast (A+T)	Actual Demand Vaccines	MFE	MAD	MSE	MAPE	Tracking Signal	Exponential Forecast		EOD Forecast Possible outcomes	Real vaccinated-Possible outcome	SD	Poisson Distribution (Between 0-S values)	Normal Distribution- % above values of S2-S7							Rough Work		Probability that there is vaccination NO growth P(X=0)	Probability of growth P(X=1)
2	Saturday	16/01/21	191181	191181	0%	06/12/21	1281512447	2914769	-41297	2873471	2670128	-203343	203343	41348510811.75	7.615490057	-1	Exponential Constant(A)	0.9	1277586791	-10023799	9153500	100%	30%							D!/x!*(D-x)!		1.00	12.00
3	Sunday	17/01/21	224301	33120	-83%	07/12/21	1284344621	2873471	-41297	2832174	2670128	-162046	162046	26258919668.51	6.068849202	-1	Exponential Constant(T)	0.01	1285438104	-2172486	11617689	100%	20%							(N-D)!/(n-x)!*((N-D)-(n-x)!		17550.00	2925.00
4	Monday	18/01/21	454049	229748	594%	08/12/21	1287135498	2832174	-41297	2790877	2670128	-120749	120749	14580260936.25	4.522208347	-1	Average Vaccines Growth	7044487	1283498325	-4112265	10944254	100%	21%							N!/(n!*(N-n)!		27405.00	27405.00
5	Tuesday	19/01/21	674835	220786	-4%	09/12/21	1289885078	2790877	-41297	2749579	2670128	-79451	79451	6312534614.97	2.975567491	-1	Average Daily Growth	-10%	1279526570	-8084020	9689380	100%	27%									64%	11%
6	Wednesday	20/01/21	806484	131649	-40%	10/12/21	1292593360	2749579	-41297	2708282	2670128	-38154	38154	1455740704.67	1.428926636	-1		%	1281225252	-6385338	10202944	100%	24%									64%	32%
7	Thursday	21/01/21	1043534	237050	80%	11/12/21	1295260345	2708282	-41297	2666985	2670128	3143	3143	9879205.35	0.117714219	1	MFE	-100100	1281799643	-5810947	10384826	100%	23%						N Population size		30.00	265252859812191000000000000000000	<- Last 4 observations/ 30 days/ 4 Weeks
8	Friday	22/01/21	1390592	347058	46%	12/12/21	1297886032	2666985	-41297	2625688	2670128	44440	44440	1974950117.02	1.664355074	1	MAD	101148	1281512447	-6098143	10293396	100%	24%						n Sample size		4.00	24	<- No. of the week day in 30 days
9	Saturday	23/01/21	1582201	191609	-45%	13/12/21	1300470423	2625688	-41297	2584390	2670128	85738	85738	7350953439.67	3.210995929	1	MSE	14994307657	1282738290	-4872300	600288446	100%	8%						D No of times vaccination grows in Population		3.00	6	<- No. of days there in high growth in vaccination in Main population
10	Sunday	24/01/21	1615504	33303	-83%	14/12/21	1303013516	2584390	-41297	2543093	2670128	127035	127035	16137889173.30	4.757636785	1	MAPE	4	8024971	-946643	1582502	0%	43%						x Probability that vaccines will grow today		1.00	1	<- Probability that today will see exponential growth in vaccinations
11	Monday	25/01/21	2023809	408305	1126%	15/12/21	1305515311	2543093	-41297	2501796	2670128	168332	168332	28335757317.91	6.30427764	1	TS	-1	4099314	-4872300	2948179	0%	88%								0.00	1
12	Tuesday	26/01/21	2029480	5671	-99%	16/12/21	1307975810	2501796	-41297	2460498	2670128	209630	209630	43944557873.51	7.850918495	1	Exponential Growth & Decay	4099314	173658	-8797956	4610624	0%	91%							N-D	27.00	10888869450418400000000000000
13	Wednesday	27/01/21	2355979	326499	5657%	17/12/21	1310395011	2460498	-41297	2419201	2670128	250927	250927	62964290840.09	9.39755935	1	time in hrs:mns	1	2113437	-6858177	3767301	0%	90%							(N-D)-(n-x)	23.00	25852016738885000000000
14	Thursday	28/01/21	2928053	572074	75%	18/12/21	1312772915	2419201	-41297	2377904	2670128	292224	292224	85394956217.65	10.94420021	1	Hypergeometric Dist. growth	11%	6085192	-2886422	2223450	0%	84%							(N-D)-(n-x)	24.00	620448401733239000000000
15	Friday	29/01/21	3500027	571974	0%	19/12/21	1315109521	2377904	-41297	2336607	2670128	333521	333521	111236554006.19	12.49084106	1	Particular day % Average	67%	3812119	-5159495	3062494	0%	89%							n-x	3.00	6
16	Saturday	30/01/21	3744334	244307	-57%	20/12/21	1317404830	2336607	-41297	2295309	2670128	374819	374819	140489084205.71	14.03748192	1			4386510	-4585104	2835721	0%	88%							N-n	26.00	403291461126606000000000000
17	Sunday	31/01/21	3758843	14509	-94%	21/12/21	1319658842	2295309	-41297	2254012	2670128	416116	416116	173152546816.22	15.58412277	1														D-x	2.00	2
18	Monday	01/02/21	3950156	191313	1219%	22/12/21	1321871557	2254012	-41297	2212715	2670128	457413	457413	209226941837.71	17.13076363	1
19	Tuesday	02/02/21	4138918	188762	-1%	23/12/21	1324042975	2212715	-41297	2171417	2670128	498711	498711	248712269270.18	18.67740448	1	1287610590	MSN Data for Nov				SA	SMA 3Days	Exponential Average	SA	Per minute	Min Err			Foor the given inputs, the results are same all time.
20	Wednesday	03/02/21	4449552	310634	65%	24/12/21	1326173095	2171417	-41297	2130120	2670128	540008	540008	291608529113.63	20.22404534	1	6098143	Difference (P16-F2)			15/11/21	-192051			4092054.00	197025	26.00	0:26:00		This is like a distribution table if you can understand what I mean
21	Thursday	04/02/21	4959445	509893	64%	25/12/21	1328261917	2130120	-41297	2088823	2670128	581305	581305	337915721368.07	21.77068619	1					16/11/21	2113178			6706723.00	322916	180.00	3:00:00
22	Friday	05/02/21	5416849	457404	-10%	26/12/21	1330309443	2088823	-41297	2047526	2670128	622602	622602	387633846033.48	23.31732705	1	Row Labels	Sum of Daily Growth %			17/11/21	612296	844474	0	7318494.00	352372	45.00	0:45:00
23	Saturday	06/02/21	5775322	358473	-22%	27/12/21	1332315671	2047526	-41297	2006228	2670128	663900	663900	440762903109.88	24.8639679	1	Monday	122			18/11/21	579670	1101715	0	7780179.00	374601	78.00	1:18:00
24	Sunday	07/02/21	5812362	37040	-90%	28/12/21	1334280602	2006228	-41297	1964931	2670128	705197	705197	497302892597.27	26.41060876	1	Tuesday	8			19/11/21	1608838	933601	84447	9182388.00	442115	95.00	1:35:00
25	Monday	08/02/21	6259008	446646	1106%	29/12/21	1336204236	1964931	-41297	1923634	2670128	746494	746494	557253814495.63	27.95724961	1	Wednesday	63			20/11/21	-1620599	189303	186174	7085936.00	341175	124.00	2:04:00
26	Tuesday	09/02/21	6611561	352553	-21%	30/12/21	1338086572	1923634	-41297	1882336	2670128	787792	787792	620615668804.98	29.50389047	1	Thursday	11			21/11/21	-3339427	-1117063	260917	3673175.00	176857	480.00	8:00:00
27	Wednesday	10/02/21	7017114	405553	15%	31/12/21	1339927611	1882336	-41297	1841039	2670128	829089	829089	687388455525.30	31.05053132	1	Friday	5			22/11/21	3488036	-490663	253755	7645114.00	368098	245.00	4:05:00
28	Thursday	11/02/21	7505010	487896	20%	01/01/22	1341727353	1841039	-41297	1799742	2670128	870386	870386	757572174656.62	32.59717218	1	Saturday	9			23/11/21	683699	277436	116674	8050074.00	387596	45.00	0:45:00
29	Friday	12/02/21	7967647	462637	-5%	02/01/22	1343485797	1799742	-41297	1758444	2670128	911684	911684	831166826198.91	34.14381303	1	Sunday	-85			24/11/21	1450247	1873994	55940	9421168.00	453612	107.00	1:47:00
30	Saturday	13/02/21	8052454	84807	-82%	03/01/22	1345202945	1758444	-41297	1717147	2670128	952981	952981	908172410152.18	35.69045389	1	Grand Total	134			25/11/21	-391818	580709	78090	8858918.00	426540	24.00	0:24:00
31	Sunday	14/02/21	0	0	0%	04/01/22	1346878795	1717147	-41297	1675850	2670128	994278	994278	988588926516.44	37.23709474	1					26/11/21	-489624	189602	257680	7954603.00	382999	33.00	0:33:00
32	Monday	15/02/21	8516771	464317	0%	05/01/22	1348513347	1675850	-41297	1634553	2670128	1035575	1035575	1072416375291.68	38.7837356	1					27/11/21	1188166	102241	289983	8812872.00	424323	73.00	1:13:00
33	Tuesday	16/02/21	8857341	340570	-27%	06/01/22	1350106603	1634553	-41297	1593255	2670128	1076873	1076873	1159654756477.90	40.33037645	1					28/11/21	-4090440	-1130633	279945	4697795.00	4097521	471.00	7:51:00
34	Wednesday	17/02/21	9186757	329416	-3%	07/01/22	1351658561	1593255	-41297	1551958	2670128	1118170	1118170	1250304070075.10	41.87701731	1					29/11/21	-2327557	-1743277	262174	8333838.00	2314955	150.00	2:30:00
35	Thursday	18/02/21	9846523	659766	100%	08/01/22	1353169221	1551958	-41297	1510661	2670128	1159467	1159467	1344364316083.29	43.42365816	1					30/11/21	346007	-2023997	122894	8584083.00	333825	21.00	0:21:00
36	Friday	19/02/21	10449942	603419	-9%	09/01/22	1354638585	1510661	-41297	1469363	2670128	1200765	1200765	1441835494502.46	44.97029902	1					01/12/21	74057	-635831	-63723	8532665.00	79006	5.00	0:05:00
37	Saturday	20/02/21	10838323	388381	-36%	10/01/22	1356066651	1469363	-41297	1428066	2670128	1242062	1242062	1542717605332.61	46.51693988	1					02/12/21	-642195	-74044	-259751	7885999.00	642563	44.00	0:44:00
38	Sunday	21/02/21	11085173	246850	-36%	11/01/22	1357453420	1428066	-41297	1386769	2670128	1283359	1283359	1647010648573.74	48.06358073	1					03/12/21	-682150	-416763	-297359	7367230.00	682151	44.00	0:44:00
39	Monday	22/02/21	11424094	338921	37%	12/01/22	1358798891	1386769	-41297	1345472	2670128	1324656	1324656	1754714624225.86	49.61022159	1					04/12/21	-3521297	-1615214	-275027	11310321.00	3539712	169.00	2:49:00
40	Tuesday	23/02/21	11907392	483298	43%	13/01/22	1360103066	1345472	-41297	1304174	2670128	1365954	1365954	1865829532288.95	51.15686244	1					05/12/21	-7573523	-3925657	-289201	2455911.00
41	Wednesday	24/02/21	12366633	459241	-5%	14/01/22	1361365943	1304174	-41297	1262877	2670128	1407251	1407251	1980355372763.03	52.7035033	1					06/12/21	5046373.00	-2016149	-421802
42	Thursday	25/02/21	13067047	700414	53%	15/01/22	1362587522	1262877	-41297	1221580	2670128	1448548	1448548	2098292145648.09	54.25014415	1
43	Friday	26/02/21	13756940	689893	-2%	16/01/22	1363767805	1221580	-41297	1180282	2670128	1489846	1489846	2219639850944.14	55.79678501	1
44	Saturday	27/02/21	14242547	485607	-30%	17/01/22	1364906790	1180282	-41297	1138985	2670128	1531143	1531143	2344398488651.16	57.34342586	1					Total	-3925657	-1985878	-287196	7044487
45	Sunday	28/02/21	14301266	58719	-88%	18/01/22	1366004478	1138985	-41297	1097688	2670128	1572440	1572440	2472568058769.17	58.89006672	1
46	Monday	01/03/21	14854136	552870	842%	19/01/22	1367060868	1097688	-41297	1056391	2670128	1613737	1613737	2604148561298.16	60.43670757	1
47	Tuesday	02/03/21	15620749	766613	39%	20/01/22	1368075962	1056391	-41297	1015093	2670128	1655035	1655035	2739139996238.13	61.98334843	1
48	Wednesday	03/03/21	16616048	995299	30%	21/01/22	1369049758	1015093	-41297	973796	2670128	1696332	1696332	2877542363589.09	63.52998928	1
49	Thursday	04/03/21	18005503	1389455	40%	22/01/22
50	Friday	05/03/21	19497704	1492201	7%	23/01/22
51	Saturday	06/03/21	20922344	1424640	-5%	24/01/22
52	Sunday	07/03/21	20989010	66666	-95%	25/01/22
53	Monday	08/03/21	23008733	2019723	2930%	26/01/22
54	Tuesday	09/03/21	24367906	1359173	-33%	27/01/22
55	Wednesday	10/03/21	25685011	1317105	-3%	28/01/22
56	Thursday	11/03/21	26164920	479909	-64%	29/01/22
57	Friday	12/03/21	28218457	2053537	328%	30/01/22
58	Saturday	13/03/21	29738409	1519952	-26%	31/01/22
59	Sunday	14/03/21	29908038	169629	-89%	01/02/22
60	Monday	15/03/21	32947432	3039394	1692%	02/02/22
61	Tuesday	16/03/21	35064536	2117104	-30%	03/02/22
62	Wednesday	17/03/21	37143255	2078719	-2%	04/02/22
63	Thursday	18/03/21	39339817	2196562	6%	05/02/22
64	Friday	19/03/21	42063392	2723575	24%	06/02/22
65	Saturday	20/03/21	44603841	2540449	-7%	07/02/22
66	Sunday	21/03/21	45065998	462157	-82%	08/02/22
67	Monday	22/03/21	48494594	3428596	642%	09/02/22
68	Tuesday	23/03/21	50841286	2346692	-32%	10/02/22
69	Wednesday	24/03/21	53145709	2304423	-2%	11/02/22
70	Thursday	25/03/21	55504440	2358731	2%	12/02/22
71	Friday	26/03/21	58109773	2605333	10%	13/02/22
72	Saturday	27/03/21	60269782	2160009	-17%	14/02/22
73	Sunday	28/03/21	60530435	260653	-88%	15/02/22
74	Monday	29/03/21	61113354	582919	124%	16/02/22
75	Tuesday	30/03/21	63054353	1940999	233%	17/02/22
76	Wednesday	31/03/21	65117896	2063543	6%	18/02/22
77	Thursday	01/04/21	68789138	3671242	78%	19/02/22
78	Friday	02/04/21	73054295	4265157	16%	20/02/22
79	Saturday	03/04/21	75979651	2925356	-31%	21/02/22
80	Sunday	04/04/21	79105163	3125512	7%	22/02/22
81	Monday	05/04/21	83110926	4005763	28%	23/02/22
82	Tuesday	06/04/21	87077474	3966548	-1%	24/02/22
83	Wednesday	07/04/21	90198673	3121199	-21%	25/02/22
84	Thursday	08/04/21	94334262	4135589	33%	26/02/22
85	Friday	09/04/21	98075160	3740898	-10%	27/02/22
86	Saturday	10/04/21	101595147	3519987	-6%	28/02/22
87	Sunday	11/04/21	104528565	2933418	-17%	01/03/22
88	Monday	12/04/21	108533085	4004520	37%	02/03/22
89	Tuesday	13/04/21	111179578	2646493	-34%	03/03/22
90	Wednesday	14/04/21	114493238	3313660	25%	04/03/22
91	Thursday	15/04/21	117223509	2730271	-18%	05/03/22
92	Friday	16/04/21	119937641	2714132	-1%	06/03/22
93	Saturday	17/04/21	122622590	2684949	-1%	07/03/22
94	Sunday	18/04/21	123852566	1229976	-54%	08/03/22
95	Monday	19/04/21	127129113	3276547	166%	09/03/22
96	Tuesday	20/04/21	0	0	0%	10/03/22
97	Wednesday	21/04/21	129646105	2516992	0%	11/03/22
98	Thursday	22/04/21	132754608	3108503	24%	12/03/22
99	Friday	23/04/21	0	0	0%	13/03/22
100	Saturday	24/04/21	0	0	0%	14/03/22