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Alexander Kruel's interviews about AI timelines
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PersonExpertiseP(human-level AI by (year) | no wars ∧ no disasters ∧ beneficially political and economic development)
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10.00%50.00%90.00%
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Dr. Brandon Rohrer(1) Adjunct Assistant Professor, Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque (2) Principal Member of the Technical Staff, Sandia National Laboratories.203220522072
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Dr. Tim FininProfessor, Computer Science and Electrical Engineering, University of Maryland, Baltimore County.203221122212
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Dr. Pat Hayes(1) Was Professor in Computer Science, University of Essex, Professor in Philosophy, University of Illinois, and Luce Professor of Cognitive Science, University of Rochester (2) Directed applied AI research at Xerox-PARC, SRI and Schlumberger, Inc. (3) Has been Secretary of AISB, chairman and trustee of IJCAI, associate editor of Artificial Intelligence, governor of the Cognitive Science Society and president of AAAI “human-level intelligence” isn't meaningful
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Dr. Nils John NilssonKumagai Professor of Engineering, Emeritus in Computer Science, Stanford University203020502100
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Dr. Peter J. BentleyAuthor and Computer Scientist, University College London
depends what you mean and how it's measured
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Dr. David Alan PlaistedProfessor, Computer Science, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hillalways later than people think, I have no idea
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Dr. Hector Levesque(1) Worked at the Fairchild Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence Research in Palo Alto (2) Professor in Computer Science at the University of Torontono idea, it's hard to make these predictions
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Dr. Paul CohenProfessor, Head of Computer Science and Director of the School of Information: Science, Technology, and Arts, University of ArizonaI wish the answer were simple, etc.
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Dr. Pei WangAssociate Professor in Computer and Information Sciences, Temple University202020302050
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Dr. J. Storrs Hall(1) Author of "Beyond AI: Creating the Conscience of the Machine", (2) President, Foresight Institute, Menlo Park, CA
(3) Worked at the Laboratory for Computer Science Research, Rutgers University
202020302040
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Dr. William UtherDid AI/robotics research at UNSW Australia, now at Google Australiaintelligence isn't one-dimensional
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Dr. Michael G. Dyer(1) Editorial Board Member of the journals: Applied Intelligence, Connection Science, Knowledge-Based Systems, International Journal of Expert Systems, and Cognitive Systems Research (2) Author of In-Depth Understandingnot before 2100
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Dr. John TrompResearcher, Board Games and Artificial Intelligence, Algorithms, Complexity, Algorithmic Information Theory, Distributed Computing, Computational biologyit won't happen before 2052
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Dr. Kevin KorbLecturer, Computer Science, Clayton School of Info Tech, Monash University205022002500
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Dr. Leo PapePostdoc, Jürgen Schmidhuber's group, IDSIA (Dalle Molle Institute for Artificial Intelligence) at least several hundred years
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Dr. Peter GacsProfessor, Computer Science, Boston Universitynot givennot givennot before 2092
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Dr. Donald LovelandProfessor Emeritus, Computer Science, Duke Universitynot givenest=2112est=2212
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Eray OzkuralPh.D. candidate, Computer Science, Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey202520302045
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Laurent OrseauAssociate Professor in Computer Science, Maître de Conférences en Informatique, AgroParisTech / INRA201720322100
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Richard LoosemoreLecturer, Mathematical and Physical Sciences, Wells College, Aurora NY, USA201520202025
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Monica AndersonFounder of Syntience Inc. , Researcher in Computer Based Cognition202020262034
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Dr. John E. Laird(1) Professor and Member of the Artificial Intelligence Laboratory in the Computer Science and Engineering Division Department, University of Michigan (2) Founder of Soar Technology203220622092
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Dr. Kristinn R. Thorisson(1) Associate Professor, Computer Science, Reykjavik University (2) Coordinator / Principal Investigator of the HUMANOBS FP7 project and co-author of the AERA architecture202520452080
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Dr. Larry WassermanStatistician and Professor, Statistics and Machine Learning, Carnegie Mellon University202520402070
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Dr. Michael LittmanProfessor, Computer Science and Department Chair, Rutgers University.205020622112
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Dr. Shane LeggComputer Scientist and AI Researcher, author of "Machine Superintelligence"201820282050
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Dr. Jürgen SchmidhuberProfessor, AI Lab IDSIA & USI & SUPSI not asked
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Dr. Stan FranklinProfessor, Computer Science, W. Harry Feinstone Interdisciplinary Research Professor, Institute for Intelligent Systems, FedEx Institute of Technology, University of Memphisnot asked
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Abram DemskiPh.D student, Computer Science, University of Southern California201720272062
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Dr. Alan BundyProfessor, Automated Reasoning, University of Edinburgh"human-level machine intelligence" not well-formed
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Dr. Mark ChangiziDirector of Human Cognition, 2ai Labs211230127012
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Dr. Randal A. Koene(1) Former Professor at the Center for Memory and Brain of Boston University (2) Co-founder of the Neural Engineering Corporation of Massachusetts (3) CEO and Founder of carboncopies.org (4) CEO of NeuraLink Co (5) Director of Science for the 2045 Foundation.202020352050
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Alexey Potapov(1) Principal Investigator of the AIDEUS project, (2) Head of Lab of Learnable Image Analysis Systems, Vavilov State Optical Institute, Russia (3) Professor of Computer Photonics and Videomatics at NRU ITMO, Russia202520352050
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Dr. Richard Carrier(1) Author of "Sense and Goodness without God", "Not the Impossible Faith", "Why I Am Not a Christian", (2) Visiting Lecturer, CFI Institute Online, Specialises in Greco-Roman Philosophy202020402080
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Median estimates:202520352070
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(not including those who didn't give a numerical estimate on all three options, and not including Richard Carrier, who is a historian)
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