Month 100 - The Clubhouse Turn: A-Rated Companies in the Dow Jones Composite Index - October 2019
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Companies Ranked by Finance Value (Col E)TickerReward = 10-Yr Total Return/YrRisk Aversion = 2018 Total Return (worst year for S&P 500 Index in the past 10)Finance Value = Col C + Col D5-Yr Total Return/YrDividend Yield5-Yr Div Growth3-Yr BetaP/EBMW Method: 16-Yr Px CAGRBMW Method: current Px TrendBMW Method: Px loss after regression to mean from +2SDROCEWACCLT Debt: Total AssetsLT-Debt: Total CapitalTotal Debt: EBITDATangible Book Value: PxDiv:FCFS&P Bond RatingS&P Stock Rating (Stars)Px (50d MA)Shares BOTAmount BOTNet Present Value @ 10-Yr Holding Period & 10% Discount RateGraham NumberPx (50d MA): Graham NumberPx: Book7-Yr P/EValue StockOverpriced StockMorningstar RatingSCORE: Basic Quality ScreenMarket Cap ($B)Dividend Achiever
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MicrosoftMSFT20.3%20.2%40.5%27.1%1.5%10.5%0.962815.0%up 2SD44%15.3%6.9%28%42%159%5%36%AAAB+/M (4)$137.7536$4,959.00$3,067.46$39.04353%10.349yesundervalued (4)3.5$1,057yes
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UnitedHealthUNH26.0%14.2%40.2%23.6%1.9%23.6%0.71715.4%up 1SD57%11.4%5.3%22%39%196%-7%24%A+A+/M (4)$230.7722$5,076.94$4,085.49$136.21169%4.131undervalued (4)3$233
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NikeNKE20.2%18.1%38.3%15.2%1.0%12.9%1.113518.6%up 1SD25%19.8%7.9%15%28%64%6%28%AA-A/L (4)$88.7556$4,970.00$5,634.25$18.86471%16.347yesovervalued (3)3.5$151yes
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PfizerPFE11.5%24.1%35.6%7.7%4.0%6.7%0.42177.6%on trendline39%10.2%4.0%21%31%193%-12%58%AA-B+/M (3)$35.93139$4,994.27$237.67$22.81158%3.421yesundervalued (4)3$202
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BoeingBA24.4%10.8%35.2%26.2%2.2%23.0%1.274316.3%up 1SD50%87.4%8.8%9%75%100%-5%25%AA+/M (4)$364.5214$5,103.28$4,983.21neg BVneg BVinfinity39yesundervalued (3)2.5$186
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NextEra EnergyNEE19.8%15.1%34.9%20.8%2.2%11.5%0.123317.2%up 2SD27%4.1%2.9%26%37%473%28%172%A-A/L (3)$226.0322$4,972.66$4,988.77$106.82212%3.230overvalued (2)4$114yes
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Union PacificUNP20.9%4.0%25.9%10.2%2.5%14.2%1.191918.5%down 1SD27%14.6%8.1%35%49%209%18%44%A-A/M (3)$162.8231$5,047.42$6,327.82$70.34231%6.525fairly valued (3)4$114yes
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Cisco SystemsCSCO10.1%14.9%25.0%16.6%3.0%13.0%1.1188.1%up 2SD40%16.6%7.6%15%25%150%-1%40%AA-B+/M (4)$47.87104$4,978.48$301.24$21.54222%629fairly valued (3)3$201
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American Electric PowerAEP15.5%7.1%22.6%13.9%2.9%6.3%0.132311.7%up 1SD27%4.0%2.6%31%49%500%42%no FCFA-B+/L (3)$92.3854$4,988.52$1,636.11$59.25156%2.430overvalued (2)4$47
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Home DepotHD26.9%-6.6%20.3%21.7%2.4%23.7%1.142318.8%on trendline50%38.0%7.8%61%98%163%-2%44%AA+/M (2)$227.5322$5,005.66$7,040.69neg BVneg BVinfinity39yesovervalued (1)2.5$259
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Duke EnergyDUK11.1%8.6%19.7%6.6%3.9%3.5%0.132110.2%on trendline19%3.8%2.9%34%50%608%36%no FCFA-B+/L (4)$94.2353$4,994.19$1,139.23$78.61120%1.626overvalued (2)4$70yes
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AppleAAPL26.3%-7.1%19.2%20.3%1.3%10.4%1.12026.4%on trendline55%20.6%7.3%26%42%142%11%21%AA+B+/M (4)$220.6223$5,074.26$15,234.52$75.12294%11.327yesfairly valued (3)3.5$1,087
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Walt DisneyDIS18.8%-0.4%18.4%12.1%1.4%14.9%0.721713.7%on trendline36%15.7%5.6%17%25%116%5%26%AA+/M (4)$133.3737$4,934.69$2,273.98$94.24142%2.626fairly valued (3)4$235
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IntelINTC14.6%2.7%17.3%14.4%2.5%7.0%0.711210.3%up 1SD37%18.3%5.2%20%25%83%18%38%A+B+/M (3)$52.2396$5,014.08$769.66$40.46129%3.120yesundervalued (4)3$231
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Coca-ColaKO9.7%7.6%17.3%7.6%3.0%5.6%0.3329.8%on trendline18%14.8%3.3%30%42%406%0%111%A+B+/L (4)$54.3192$4,996.52$686.83$13.34407%12.436yesovervalued (3)2.5$232yes
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Expeditors InternationalEXPD10.2%6.1%16.3%13.2%1.4%8.9%1.13218.1%up 1SD32%23.8%8.3%0%0%0%15%30%no debtA/L (3)$72.7269$5,017.68-$492.79$31.30232%6.232yesovervalued (2)1.5$13yes
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Procter & GamblePG10.3%5.1%15.4%9.9%2.5%3.0%0.35858.3%up 2SD18%13.8%3.7%18%26%174%-6%63%AA-A-/L (4)$121.1941$4,968.79-$170.97$24.38497%6.538yesovervalued (2)2.5$300yes
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SouthernSO11.9%-1.8%10.1%10.8%4.0%3.4%0.26149.5%up 2SD15%4.8%3.5%35%57%528%31%no FCFA-B+/L (4)$60.2683$5,001.58$861.04$49.60121%2.428overvalued (2)4$64yes
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WalmartWMT11.3%-3.3%8.0%10.6%1.8%2.0%0.65279.3%up 2SD23%11.0%5.3%23%38%172%13%35%AAB+/L (4)$116.5143$5,009.93$6.02$49.56235%4.928overvalued (2)4$339yes
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Consolidated EdisonED12.2%-5.1%7.1%11.2%3.2%3.3%0.182210.2%up 1SD18%5.0%2.9%32%47%522%50%no FCFA-B+/L (2)$91.2755$5,019.85$883.69$71.00129%1.722yesovervalued (2)4$31yes
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JPMorgan ChaseJPM14.3%-7.5%6.8%19.5%3.2%17.6%1.191211.4%up 2SD36%2.8%7.0%10%32%NA44%17%A-A-/L (4)$115.3043$4,957.90$2,081.90$129.6889%1.719yesfairly valued (3)3$388
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Johnson & JohnsonJNJ11.1%-4.8%6.3%6.9%2.9%6.3%0.73229.1%on trendline24%14.2%5.7%18%31%108%-5%51%AAAA-/M (3)$130.2138$4,947.98$401.95$57.52226%5.629fairly valued (3)4$338yes
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TravelersTRV12.5%-7.1%5.4%8.0%2.3%8.3%0.811412.0%on trendline23%3.2%6.1%6%20%NA48%19%AB+/M (3)$144.6635$5,063.10$1,600.29$148.0998%1.516yesfairly valued (3)4$37yes
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CaterpillarCAT12.2%-17.3%-5.1%10.8%3.5%8.0%1.54129.6%on trendline39%13.0%7.8%32%49%320%7%54%AB+/M (3)$125.0240$5,000.80$828.64$79.86157%526undervalued (4)3$74yes
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3MMMM11.0%-17.0%-6.0%4.2%3.8%11.0%1.28199.1%down 1SD33%22.0%8.5%37%55%159%-3%66%AA-A+/L (3)$162.1631$5,026.96$872.56$57.25283%9.521undervalued (3)2$96yes
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United Parcel ServiceUPS11.1%-18.6%-7.5%6.0%3.3%7.5%1.44216.9%on trendline29%19.7%9.2%40%77%245%-3%47%AB+/L (5)$117.6742$4,942.14-$242.91$25.15468%23.128yesfairly valued (3)0.5$101
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Exxon MobilXOM2.5%-16.5%-14.0%-2.5%5.1%4.8%1.21173.3%down 1SD27%7.4%8.2%6%9%96%56%77%AA+B+/L (3)$69.7072$5,018.40-$834.39$64.99107%1.512yesundervalued (4)2$289yes
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IBMIBM3.5%-22.9%-19.4%0.0%4.6%8.1%1.56155.1%down 1SD32%11.3%8.3%29%57%265%-19%50%AA-/M (4)$138.9036$5,000.40-$254.48$63.49219%7.111fairly valued (3)1$117yes
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Averagen = 2814.7%0.8%15.5%12.6%2.8%10.0%0.836785714323.5357142911.8%up 1SD32%16.0%6.1%24%41%240%14%50%A+A-/M (4)$129.52$5,002.44$2,283.84$63.58228%6.2286/289/28fairly valued (3)3.053571429$20617/28
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BACKGROUND
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Berkshire HathawayBRK-B12.4%3.5%15.9%8.6%0.0%0.0%0.92189.5%on trendline25%4.6%7.1%13%20%252%45%no dividendAAB/L (3)$206.2624$4,950.24-$467.07$203.02102%1.423yesundervalued (4)2$518
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Simon Property GroupSPG12.3%2.2%14.5%1.1%5.7%10.1%0.53209.8%down 2SD38%7.2%4.4%71%82%555%6%83%AA/M (4)$151.3633$4,994.88$1,935.40$39.65382%16.428yesundervalued (4)2.5$48
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DeereDE16.2%-3.8%12.4%17.6%1.8%4.8%1.451713.7%on trendline34%11.5%4.2%39%51%598%12%no FCFAB+/M (3)$163.0831$5,055.48$2,318.79$95.02172%4.522undervalued (3)4$55
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TargetTGT11.1%1.1%12.2%13.6%2.5%4.9%0.54188.3%up 2SD28%10.5%5.9%30%49%169%19%54%AB+/M (3)$108.9146$5,009.86-$207.10$56.09194%4.823overvalued (2)2$56yes
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American ExpressAXP12.9%-2.3%10.6%7.5%1.5%10.6%0.99148.1%up 1SD46%4.6%5.7%25%56%407%18%17%BBB+B+/L (3)$118.1042$4,960.20-$421.03$72.24163%4.324undervalued (3)1$97
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SPDR Dow Jones Indust Avg ETFDIA13.4%-3.6%9.8%11.8%2.2%10.6%0.98186.6%up 1SD28%$266.3119$5,059.89-$676.653.9$21
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SPDR S&P 500 ETFSPY13.6%-4.5%9.1%10.7%1.9%8.3%1206.6%up 1SD31%$295.4317$5,022.31-$857.623.3$274
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PepsiCoPEP11.1%-3.3%7.8%9.6%2.8%7.8%0.47169.5%up 1SD20%14.1%4.6%36%60%253%-8%80%A+A-/L (4)$135.9537$5,030.15$596.13$44.74304%13.528yesovervalued (3)2.5$190yes
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Wells FargoWFC9.4%-22.4%-13.0%3.1%4.2%7.8%1.19106.6%on trendline33%1.6%6.8%10%34%NA69%26%A-A/M (3)$48.20104$5,012.80$31.25$65.0974%1.312yesundervalued (4)3$217yes
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Averagen = 912.5%-3.7%8.8%9.3%2.5%7.2%0.896666666716.777777788.7%on trendline31%7.7%5.5%32%50%372%23%52%AA-/L (3)$165.96$5,010.65$250.23$82.26199%5.93333333322.857142862/72/7undervalued (3)2.428571429$1643/7
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Consumer Price Indexcpi1.8%0.3%2.1%1.5%
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Updated 11/14/2019
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