UKIP Targets, GE2020 — swing req. <15%

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I
1		Constituency	Winning Party 2015	Maj/lead over UKIP	Swing Required %	Maj/lead over UKIP %	Total Votes 2015	UKIP position if not 2nd	Additional swing required to overcome intervening parties?

2
3	1	Thurrock	Con: 1	974	0.98	1.97	49,564	3rd
4	2	Thanet South	Con: 2	2,812	2.85	5.69	49,401
5	3	Hartlepool	Lab: 1	3,024	3.83	7.66	39,490
6	4	Boston & Skegness	Con: 3	4,336	5.00	10.00	43,339
7	5	Heywood & Middleton	Lab: 2	5,299	5.46	10.92	48,538
8	6	Dagenham & Rainham	Lab: 3	4,980	5.78	11.57	43,050
9	7	Rochester & Strood	Con: 4	7,133	6.79	13.58	52,516
10	8	Mansfield	Lab: 4	6,753	7.15	14.31	47,193	3rd
11	9	Great Grimsby	Lab: 5	4,997	7.41	14.81	33,731	3rd
12	10	Stoke-on-Trent North	Lab: 6	5,887	7.61	15.23	38,654	3rd
13	11	Rother Valley	Lab: 7	7,297	7.76	15.52	47,019
14	12	Stoke-on-Trent Central	Lab: 8	5,179	8.33	16.66	31,084
15	13	Basildon South & Thurrock East	Con: 5	7,691	8.43	16.87	45,593
16	14	Dudley North	Lab: 9	6,772	8.91	17.82	37,992	3rd
17	15	Penistone & Stocksbridge	Lab: 10	8,953	9.55	19.11	46,854
18	16	Bradford South	Lab: 11	7,271	9.67	19.34	37,600	3rd
19	17	Isle of Wight	Con: 6	13,703	9.75	19.49	70,300
20	18	Ashfield	Lab: 12	9,298	9.81	19.61	47,409	3rd
21	19	Castle Point	Con: 7	8,934	9.83	19.66	45,450
22	20	Great Yarmouth	Con: 8	8,819	9.92	19.83	44,469	3rd
23	21	Hyndburn	Lab: 13	9,044	10.54	21.09	42,887	3rd	YES
24	22	Portsmouth South	Con: 9	8,990	10.73	21.45	41,903	4th
25	23	Bristol South	Lab: 14	11,124	10.94	21.88	50,842	3rd
26	24	West Bromwich West	Lab: 15	7,742	11.05	22.10	35,026
27	25	Southport	LD: 1	9,802	11.11	22.23	44,101	4th	YES
28	26	Newport East	Lab: 16	7,824	11.14	22.29	35,108	3rd
29	27	Rotherham	Lab: 17	8,446	11.17	22.33	37,823
30	28	Don Valley	Lab: 18	9,658	11.37	22.73	42,486	3rd
31	29	Workington	Lab: 19	8,744	11.37	22.73	38,463	3rd
32	30	Stoke-on-Trent South	Lab: 20	8,964	11.46	22.92	39,107	3rd	YES
33	31	Dover	Con: 10	11,560	11.51	23.02	50,224	3rd
34	32	Thanet North	Con: 11	10,948	11.63	23.27	47,053
35	33	St Austell & Newquay	Con: 12	11,747	11.66	23.33	50,361	3rd
36	34	Walsall North	Lab: 21	8,666	11.75	23.50	36,883	3rd	YES
37	35	Hornchurch & Upminster	Con: 13	13,074	11.83	23.67	55,236
38	36	Blyth Valley	Lab: 22	9,229	12.00	24.00	38,461
39	37	Burnley	Lab: 23	9,686	12.18	24.37	39,746	3rd	YES
40	38	Sittingbourne & Sheppey	Con: 14	12,168	12.32	24.64	49,378
41	39	Doncaster Central	Lab: 24	10,093	12.49	24.97	40,420
42	40	Caerphilly	Lab: 25	10,073	12.50	25.01	40,283
43	41	Folkestone & Hythe	Con: 15	13,797	12.54	25.08	55,010
44	42	Llanelli	Lab: 26	9,679	12.55	25.09	38,574	3rd
45	43	Bosworth	Con: 16	13,601	12.69	25.38	53,582	4th
46	44	Camborne & Redruth	Con: 17	11,676	12.73	25.46	45,868	3rd
47	45	Redcar	Lab: 27	10,430	12.74	25.49	40,919	3rd
48	46	Birmingham Yardley	Lab: 28	10,492	12.75	25.50	41,151	3rd
49	47	Torfaen	Lab: 29	9,735	12.83	25.66	37,937	3rd
50	48	Rochford & Southend East	Con: 18	11,293	12.95	25.90	43,608	3rd
51	49	Worsley & Eccles South	Lab: 30	10,912	12.98	25.95	42,048	3rd
52	50	Stalybridge & Hyde	Lab: 31	10,727	13.07	26.14	41,034	3rd
53	51	Scarborough & Whitby	Con: 19	12,502	13.09	26.19	47,739	3rd	YES
54	52	Bexleyheath & Crayford	Con: 20	11,461	13.12	26.24	43,685	3rd
55	53	Eastleigh	Con: 21	14,681	13.22	26.45	55,505	3rd
56	54	Batley & Spen	Lab: 32	13,378	13.25	26.50	50,479	3rd	YES
57	55	Bridgwater & Somerset West	Con: 22	14,583	13.39	26.78	54,447
58	56	Bolton South East	Lab: 33	10,928	13.41	26.82	40,743
59	57	Wolverhampton North East	Lab: 34	9,145	13.45	26.89	34,003	3rd
60	58	Northampton South	Con: 23	10,512	13.52	27.03	38,884	3rd	YES
61	59	Dudley South	Con: 24	10,434	13.65	27.31	38,210	3rd	YES
62	60	Carmarthen East & Dinefwr	PC: 1	10,777	13.68	27.35	39,399	4th
63	61	Rochdale	Lab: 35	12,442	13.69	27.39	45,430
64	62	Neath	Lab: 36	10,176	13.70	27.40	37,135	3rd
65	63	Plymouth Moor View	Con: 25	11,684	13.71	27.42	42,606	3rd	YES
66	64	Pontypridd	Lab: 37	10,469	13.82	27.64	37,882	3rd
67	65	Norfolk South West	Con: 26	13,861	13.83	27.66	50,110
68	66	Portsmouth North	Con: 27	12,683	13.97	27.94	45,390	3rd
69	67	Ashton-under-Lyne	Lab: 38	10,898	14.00	28.00	38,918	3rd
70	68	Bolton North East	Lab: 39	12,094	14.01	28.02	43,161	3rd	YES
71	69	Norfolk North	LD: 2	13,856	14.02	28.04	49,414	3rd	YES
72	70	Cleethorpes	Con: 28	12,670	14.05	28.10	45,089	3rd
73	71	Romford	Con: 29	13,859	14.09	28.18	49,178
74	72	Birmingham Erdington	Lab: 40	9,784	14.10	28.21	34,684	3rd
75	73	Gravesham	Con: 30	14,178	14.14	28.28	50,139	3rd
76	74	Gillingham & Rainham	Con: 31	13,391	14.22	28.44	47,078	3rd
77	75	Alyn & Deeside	Lab: 41	11,874	14.37	28.74	41,314	3rd	YES
78	76	Spelthorne	Con: 32	14,152	14.42	28.84	49,079
79	77	West Bromwich East	Lab: 42	10,868	14.49	28.99	37,492	3rd
80	78	Cardiff South & Penarth	Lab: 43	13,543	14.51	29.02	46,667	3rd
81	79	Dartford	Con: 33	15,236	14.53	29.07	52,418	3rd
82	80	Forest of Dean	Con: 34	14,399	14.54	29.08	49,520	3rd
83	81	Swansea West	Lab: 44	10,223	14.54	29.08	35,156	3rd
84	82	Hazel Grove	Con: 35	12,599	14.58	29.15	43,219	4th
85	83	Wyre Forest	Con: 36	14,427	14.59	29.18	49,440	3rd
86	84	Stourbridge	Con: 37	13,454	14.61	29.23	46,029	3rd	YES
87	85	Canterbury	Con: 38	15,629	14.62	29.23	53,465	3rd
88	86	Leicester West	Lab: 45	10,101	14.63	29.26	34,522	3rd
89	87	South Shields	Lab: 46	10,614	14.63	29.27	36,265
90	88	Hull West & Hessle	Lab: 47	9,333	14.67	29.35	31,803
91	89	Hull East	Lab: 48	10,319	14.68	29.36	35,144
92	90	Bishop Auckland	Lab: 49	11,568	14.68	29.37	39,389	3rd	YES
93	91	Makerfield	Lab: 50	13,155	14.69	29.37	44,788
94	92	Devon North	Con: 39	15,372	14.69	29.38	52,320	3rd	YES
95	93	Islwyn	Lab: 51	10,404	14.69	29.39	35,401
96	94	Cardiff West	Lab: 52	12,880	14.71	29.41	43,792	4th
97	95	Clwyd South	Lab: 53	10,338	14.74	29.48	35,064	3rd	YES
98	96	Newcastle upon Tyne North	Lab: 54	13,242	14.75	29.50	44,891	3rd
99	97	Sheffield South East	Lab: 55	12,311	14.77	29.53	41,685
100	98	Leeds West	Lab: 56	11,352	14.77	29.54	38,423	3rd