Carrie_Pillar5_Financial_Model.xlsx

	A	B	C	F
1	CARRIE COFFEE ROASTERS — FINANCIAL MODEL
2	Key assumptions (blue = editable inputs)
3	All figures in RM (Malaysian Ringgit) unless stated
4
5	PRICING ASSUMPTIONS
6	Parameter	Value	Unit	Source
7	Blend 01 wholesale (5-39kg)	80	RM/kg
8	Blend 01 wholesale (40kg+)	75	RM/kg
9	Blend 02 wholesale (5-39kg)	80	RM/kg
10	Blend 02 wholesale (40kg+)	75	RM/kg
11	Blend 03 wholesale (5-39kg)	75	RM/kg
12	Blend 03 wholesale (40kg+)	70	RM/kg
13	Blended avg wholesale price	78	RM/kg
14	Retail price (250g bag)	35	RM/bag
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16	COST ASSUMPTIONS
17	Parameter	Value	Unit	Source
18	Green coffee — Brazil base	35	RM/kg	Importer A quote
19	Green coffee — Indonesia	40	RM/kg	Importer B quote
20	Green coffee — Uganda	38	RM/kg	Importer B quote
21	Green coffee — Peru/ES	42	RM/kg	Importer C quote
22	Blended avg green cost	39	RM/kg
23	Roast loss adjustment (+18%)	7.0	RM/kg
24	Packaging cost per kg	3	RM/kg	Supplier quote
25	Utilities per kg	2	RM/kg	Estimate
26	Consumables per kg	1	RM/kg	Estimate
27	Total production cost per kg	51	RM/kg
28	Gross margin per kg	27	RM/kg
29	Gross margin %	34.6%	%
30
31	VOLUME ASSUMPTIONS
32	Parameter	Value	Unit	Notes
33	Avg kg per cafe per month	15	kg	Range: 8-40kg depending on cafe size
34	New cafes per month (Phase 1, M1-4)	3	cafes	Conservative: 2-3 per month
35	New cafes per month (Phase 2, M5-8)	2	cafes	Steady acquisition
36	New cafes per month (Phase 3, M9-12)	3	cafes	Accelerated with referrals
37	Monthly churn rate	3.0%	%	~1 cafe lost per 30 every month
38	Blend mix: Blend 01	50.0%	%	Flagship — most cafes
39	Blend mix: Blend 02	30.0%	%	Balanced
40	Blend mix: Blend 03	20.0%	%	Kopitiam segment
41	Batch size (green)	5	kg	5kg roaster
42	Batches per roast day	6	batches	~16min cycle time
43	Roast days per week	3	days	Mon/Wed/Fri
44	Max monthly capacity (current)	390	kg
45
46	FIXED COSTS (MONTHLY)
47	Expense	Amount (RM)	Frequency	Notes
48	Rent / workspace	0	Monthly	Home-based initially
49	Equipment maintenance	100	Monthly	Roaster service fund
50	Insurance	150	Monthly	Product liability
51	Transport / fuel	400	Monthly	2 delivery corridors/week
52	Phone / internet	150	Monthly	WhatsApp Business, data
53	Marketing / samples	300	Monthly	20 sample kits + socials
54	Accounting / bookkeeping	200	Monthly	Part-time bookkeeper
55	Miscellaneous	200	Monthly	Buffer for unexpected
56	Total monthly fixed costs	1,500
57
58	STARTUP COSTS (ONE-TIME)
59	Item	Amount (RM)		Notes
60	5kg coffee roaster	15,000		Already purchased
61	Grinder (sample/QC)	2,500
62	Packaging supplies (initial)	1,500		3 months of bags
63	Green coffee (initial inventory)	3,500		~100kg across origins
64	Sample kits (20x)	300		RM15 per kit
65	Branding / design	1,000		Logo, cards, labels
66	Scale + espresso tools	500		Dial-in kit
67	Miscellaneous	700
68	Total startup investment	25,000
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