NH Probability Analysis
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NH Primary Probability analysis
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-3351.html#polls
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Richard Charnin
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It was a Sanders landslide: 60.0-38.4%
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Polling DataLV 56.95%43.05%2-party
% precincts
SandersClinton
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PollDateSampleMoESandersClintonMargin %Prob (Sanders)
Sanders 2-party
26%57%31%
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RCP Average2/2 - 2/8478.54.7754.541.213.399.8%56.9%
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ARG2/7 - 2/84095.05344996.6%54.6%Req to win47.5%
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UMass Lowell/7News2/5 - 2/74075.556401699.9%58.3%
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CNN/WMUR2/4 - 2/83635.1613526100.0%63.5%
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Emerson2/4 - 2/77833.7544212100.0%56.3%
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Monmouth2/4 - 2/65024.452421099.1%55.3%
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Boston Herald/FPU2/2 - 2/64074.95144793.0%53.7%
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Total28710.92%
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MoE=sqrt (p* (1-p) /n) =0.92%
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p= .5695
; n= 2871 repondents
Probability of a Sanders win=
100.00%
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/dem_results.html
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2008 New Hampshire Democratic Primary
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PollDateSampleObamaClintonEdwardsRichardsonSpread
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Final Results----36.43916.94.6Clinton +2.6
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RCP Average
01/05 - 01/07
--38.33018.35.7Obama +8.3
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American Res. Group
01/06 - 01/07
600 LV4031204Obama +9.0
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Suffolk/WHDH
01/06 - 01/07
500 LV3934154Obama +5.0
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Rasmussen
01/05 - 01/07
1774 LV3730198Obama +7.0
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ReutersC-Span/Zogby
01/05 - 01/07
862 LV4229175Obama +13.0
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CBS News
01/05 - 01/06
323 LV3528195Obama +7.0
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Marist
01/05 - 01/06
636 LV3628227Obama +8.0
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CNN/WMUR/UNH
01/05 - 01/06
599 LV3930167Obama +9.0
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