Tracking and evaluating the 2015 Greece election polls
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How did the polls and exit polls do?
Total off, by:Average off, by:
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SYRIZA
NDXAPotamiKKEANELPASOKKIDISOOthers
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Actual results (99.8% reporting)
36.327.86.36.15.54.84.72.56.0
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Average of exit polls
37.126.46.66.65.44.24.82.76.4Average of exit polls came closer to result than all but one of the individual exit polls
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Too high/low by:0.8-1.40.30.5-0.1-0.60.10.20.44.40.5
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Exit poll by pollster
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21:30
Singular Logic
36.527.76.35.95.64.74.88.5
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Too high/low by:0.2-0.10.0-0.20.1-0.10.1-2.52.55.80.6
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20:30
Alco / GPO / Marc / Metron / MRB
37.027.06.56.55.54.54.72.75.6
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Too high/low by:0.7-0.80.20.40.0-0.30.00.2-0.43.00.3
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19:00
Palmos Analysis
38.525.86.86.65.34.642.55.9
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Too high/low by:2.2-2.00.50.5-0.2-0.2-0.70.0-0.16.40.7
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19:00PAMAK37.525.577.563.552.55.5
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Too high/low by:1.2-2.30.71.40.5-1.30.30.0-0.58.20.9
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19:00
Alco / GPO / Marc / Metron / MRB
37.5257.27.25.244.72.76
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Too high/low by:1.2-2.80.91.1-0.3-0.80.00.20.07.30.8
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19:00Pulse RC37.527.566.5545.535
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Too high/low by:1.2-0.3-0.30.4-0.5-0.80.80.5-1.05.80.6
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19:00
Kapa Research
35.526.56.565.5452.78.3
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Too high/low by:-0.8-1.30.2-0.10.0-0.80.30.22.36.00.7
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Average of last pre-election poll from each pollster35.729.66.26.75.33.75.12.65.2Average of polls came closer to result than any single individual poll
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Too high/low by:-0.61.8-0.10.6-0.2-1.10.40.1-0.85.70.6
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Last poll by pollster
Polls understimated every anti-bailout party, overestimated every pro-bailout party
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23 Jan1/23/2015GPO37.029.65.65.55.43.95.53.24.3
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Too high/low by:0.71.8-0.7-0.6-0.1-0.90.80.7-1.78.00.9
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23 Jan1/23/2015MRB35.930.06.37.55.23.74.62.84.0
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Too high/low by:-0.42.20.01.4-0.3-1.1-0.10.3-2.07.80.9
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22-23 Jan1/23/2015Interview36.629.96.76.14.72.74.71.96.7
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Too high/low by:0.32.10.40.0-0.8-2.10.0-0.60.77.00.8
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22-23 Jan1/23/2015Kapa Research35.532.36.15.55.02.95.32.84.6
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Too high/low by:-0.84.5-0.2-0.6-0.5-1.90.60.3-1.410.81.2
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21-23 Jan1/22/2015PaMak36.028.56.57.56.04.05.51.54.5
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Too high/low by:-0.30.70.21.40.5-0.80.8-1.0-1.57.20.8
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21-23 Jan1/22/2015Alco37.630.06.26.24.24.15.12.64.0
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Too high/low by:1.32.2-0.10.1-1.3-0.70.40.1-2.08.20.9
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21-23 Jan1/22/2015Palmos Analysis36.525.56.57.56.04.04.59.5
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Too high/low by:0.2-2.30.21.40.5-0.8-0.21.06.60.7
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20-23 Jan1/22/2015Public Issue35.029.06.57.56.03.55.02.55.0
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Too high/low by:-1.31.20.21.40.5-1.30.30.0-1.07.20.8
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21-22 Jan1/22/2015Pulse RC36.030.56.57.05.04.06.03.02.0
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Too high/low by:-0.32.70.20.9-0.5-0.81.30.5-4.011.21.2
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19-23 Jan1/22/2015Metron Analysis36.530.06.07.05.03.54.52.55.0
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Too high/low by:0.22.2-0.30.9-0.5-1.3-0.20.0-1.06.60.7
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20-21 Jan1/21/2015Rass34.529.25.67.05.94.24.72.86.1
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Too high/low by:-1.81.4-0.70.90.4-0.60.00.30.16.20.7
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19-21 Jan1/20/2015Marc36.828.76.97.04.93.44.42.65.3
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Too high/low by:0.50.90.60.9-0.6-1.4-0.30.1-0.76.00.7
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19-21 Jan1/20/2015Metrisi34.732.55.85.74.62.95.32.65.9
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Too high/low by:-1.64.7-0.5-0.4-0.9-1.90.60.1-0.110.81.2
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17-22 Jan1/20/2015
Epaminondas Panas
33.931.06.15.85.04.36.03.04.9
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Too high/low by:-2.43.2-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.51.30.5-1.110.01.1
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19-20 Jan1/20/2015Pro Rata36.027.56.57.56.04.05.52.05.0
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Too high/low by:-0.3-0.30.21.40.5-0.80.8-0.5-1.05.80.6
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18-20 Jan1/19/2015E-Voice33.329.66.16.164.35.12.96.6
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-3.01.8-0.20.00.5-0.50.40.40.67.40.8
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Polling evaluation
Polling overview
Exit polls