| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | |
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1 | Evaluating 2023-2032 Senate Map on Commission Competitiveness Metric | |||||||||
2 | In June of 2022, the Commission adopted a competitiveness measure to identify what legislative districts will be considered competitive. The Commission will evaluate state legislative plans using ten races from 2016 through 2020, which are all publicly available. State legislative districts won by both major parties at least 30% of the time are considered competitive. State legislative districts won by the same party 80% or more of the time in these 10 races are not considered competitive. | |||||||||
3 | *The 2-party statewide average for these ten races is 57% Republican and 43% Democrat. | |||||||||
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5 | Commission Competitiveness Evaluation | |||||||||
6 | Republican Districts | 29 | *Won by Republicans at least 80% of the time. | |||||||
7 | Democratic Districts | 18 | *Won by Democrats at least 80% of the time. | |||||||
8 | Competitive Districts | 3 | *Competitive Districts: Won by both major parties at least 30% of the time (or 3 of the 10 races). | |||||||
9 | Total Senate Districts | 50 | ||||||||
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11 | Breakdown of Competitive Districts Only | |||||||||
12 | Republican-Leaning Competitive Seats | 2 | *Competitive districts won a majority of the time by Republicans. | |||||||
13 | Democratic-Leaning Competitive Seats | 0 | *Competitive districts won a majority of the time by Democrats. | |||||||
14 | Competitive Seats (won equally by both parties) | 1 | *Competitive districts won 50% of the time by both major parties. | |||||||
15 | Total Competitive Senate Districts | 3 | ||||||||
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17 | Breakdown of Party Advantage | |||||||||
18 | Majority Republican Won Districts | 31 | *Won by Republicans more than 60% or more of the time. | |||||||
19 | Majority Democratic Won Districts | 18 | *Won by Democrats more than 60% or more of the time. | |||||||
20 | Districts Won 50% of the Time by Both Parties | 1 | *Won by both major parties 50% of the time. | |||||||
21 | Total Senate Districts | 50 | ||||||||
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23 | *The 2-party statewide average for the Commission's ten races used for measuring competitiveness is 57% Republican and 43% Democrat. | |||||||||
24 | **With 57% of the statewide vote, Republicans are favored to win | 31 | of 50 senate districts. | |||||||
25 | ***If Republicans are earning 57% of the statewide vote, they would be favored to win | 2.5 | seats more than their statewide vote share. | |||||||