The EU Referendum – population
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2011 Census: Usual resident population by five-year age group, local authorities in the United Kingdom
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Source:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/census/2011-census/population-and-household-estimates-for-the-united-kingdom/rft-table-3-census-2011.xls
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All ages10 ‒ 1415 ‒ 1920 ‒ 2425 ‒ 2930 ‒ 3435 ‒ 3940 ‒ 4445 ‒ 4950 ‒ 5455 ‒ 5960 ‒ 6465 ‒ 6970 ‒ 7475 ‒ 7980 ‒ 8485 ‒ 8990 and over
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63,182,0003,670,0003,997,0004,297,0004,307,0004,126,0004,194,0004,626,0004,643,0004,095,0003,614,0003,807,0003,017,0002,463,0002,006,0001,496,000918,000476,000
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Assume the populations aged 10 - 14 and 15 - 19 are evenly distributed across their respective spans:
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14 ‒ 1516 ‒ 1718 ‒ 19
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1,533,4001,598,8001,598,800
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2016 How Britain Voted
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Source:
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/
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18 ‒ 2425 ‒ 4950 ‒ 6465 ‒ Total
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Remain71%54%40%36%
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Leave29%46%60%64%
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Popn5,895,80021,896,00011,516,00010,376,00049,683,800
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Remain4,186,01811,823,8404,606,4003,735,36024,351,618
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Leave1,709,78210,072,1606,909,6006,640,64025,332,182
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Voted remain2,774,6637,837,3213,053,3092,475,94816,141,24148.1%
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Voted leave1,175,1296,922,5694,748,9504,564,09417,410,74251.9%
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Turnout67.53%
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2018 Looking Forward Two Years
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18 ‒ 2627 ‒ 5152 ‒ 6667 ‒ Total
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Remain71%54%40%36%
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Leave29%46%60%64%
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Popn7,494,60021,896,00011,516,0008,539,54049,446,140
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Remain5,321,16611,823,8404,606,4003,074,23424,825,640
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Leave2,173,43410,072,1606,909,6005,465,30624,620,500
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Voting remain3,593,4387,984,7613,110,7492,076,06216,765,01150.2%
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Voting leave1,467,7426,801,8344,666,1243,690,77716,626,47849.8%
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Assumes everyone casts the same vote in 2018 as 2016
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Assumes today's 16 and 17 year olds will vote in identical proportion to today's 18-24 year olds
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Assumes identical turnout
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Modal age at death for those born in 1945
76.3
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Selected the highest modal age at death reported for those years up to 1961, which is then biased towards the leave campaign
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Proportion of those 65 or over today who will die in the next two years
17.7%
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Source:
http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/mortalityinenglandandwales/2012-12-17
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2020 Looking Forward Four Years
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18 ‒ 2829 ‒ 5354 ‒ 6869 ‒ Total
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Remain71%54%40%36%
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Leave29%46%60%64%
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Popn9,028,00021,896,00011,516,0006,703,08049,143,080
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Remain6,409,88011,823,8404,606,4002,413,10925,253,229
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Leave2,618,12010,072,1606,909,6004,289,97123,889,851
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Voting remain4,328,6587,984,7613,110,7491,629,59717,053,76651.4%
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Voting leave1,768,0436,801,8344,666,1242,897,06216,133,06348.6%
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Assumes everyone casts the same vote in 2020 as 2016
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Assumes today's 14 to 17 year olds will vote in identical proportion to today's 18-24 year olds
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Assumes identical turnout
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Modal age at death for those born in 1945
76.3
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Selected the highest modal age at death reported for those years up to 1961, which is then biased towards the leave campaign
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Proportion of those 65 or over today who will die in the next four years
35.4%
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Source as above
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