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Predicting Market with Random Number Generator
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ABCDEFGHIJK
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Total InvestedEnding Account Value% Return
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DayRandom Number Generated by ExcelDecision on Direction From Number (-1=down/so sell, 0 = same/hold, 1 = up/so buy)Correct? (1=YES, 0=NO)Actual Performance (%)End of Day Value of $1000 starting amount through buying/sellingAmounts to invest Based on Random Number Generator Prediction (Buy 5% of portfolio @ each buy trigger)Amounts to Sell Based on Random Number Generator Prediction (Sell 5% of portfolio @ each sell trigger)$1,801.62$1,136.640.57%
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February 28, 20110Stay same, hold00.50%$1,005.00$1,000.00Formula to use
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March 1, 20110Stay same, hold0-1.57%$989.22Randbetween(-1,1)
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March 2, 2011n/an/an/a0.00%$989.22% of each
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March 3, 20111Up, buy11.72%$1,056.55$49.46# of incorrect predictions2155.26%
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March 4, 20111Up, buy0-0.72%$1,101.39$52.83# of correct predictions1744.74%
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March 5, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,101.39Total38
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March 6, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,101.39
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March 7, 2011-1down, so sell1-0.83%$1,037.63$55.07
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March 8, 20111Up, buy10.90%$1,099.32$51.88
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March 9, 20111Up, buy00.00%$1,154.29$54.97
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March 10, 20111Up, buy0-2.00%$1,187.76$57.71
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March 11, 2011-1down, so sell00.71%$1,136.39$59.39
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March 12, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,136.39
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March 13, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,136.39
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March 14, 2011-1down, so sell1-0.60%$1,073.09$56.82
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March 15, 20110Stay same, hold0-1.00%$1,062.36classify staying the same as less than 0.5% change
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March 16, 2011-1down, so sell1-2.00%$989.05$53.12
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March 17, 2011-1down, so sell01.34%$952.19$49.45
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March 18, 20111Up, buy00.43%$1,004.10$47.61
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March 19, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,004.10
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March 20, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,004.10
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March 21, 20111Up, buy11.50%$1,070.12$50.21
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March 22, 20110Stay same, hold1-0.36%$1,066.27Source
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March 23, 2011-1down, so sell00.30%$1,015.99$53.31http://www.google.com/finance
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March 24, 20111Up, buy10.93%$1,076.72$50.80
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March 25, 20111Up, buy00.32%$1,134.17$53.84
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March 26, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,134.17
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March 27, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,134.17
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March 28, 20111Up, buy0-0.30%$1,187.30$56.71one month
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March 29, 2011-1down, so sell00.70%$1,135.83$59.37
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March 30, 2011-1down, so sell00.67%$1,086.27$56.79
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March 31, 20110Stay same, hold1-0.20%$1,084.10
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April 1, 20111Up, buy10.50%$1,144.00$54.21
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April 2, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,144.00
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April 3, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,144.00
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April 4, 20110Stay same, hold10.03%$1,144.34
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April 5, 2011-1down, so sell0-0.02%$1,086.91$57.22
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April 6, 20111Up, buy00.22%$1,143.76$54.35
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April 7, 20110Stay same, hold1-0.15%$1,142.05
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April 8, 20111Up, buy0-0.40%$1,194.35$57.10
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April 9, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,194.35
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April 10, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,194.35
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April 11, 20110Stay same, hold1-0.28%$1,191.01
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April 12, 2011-1down, so sell1-0.80%$1,122.41$59.55
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April 13, 20111Up, buy00.02%$1,178.76$56.12
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April 14, 2011-1down, so sell00.02%$1,120.05$58.94
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April 15, 20110Stay same, hold10.39%$1,124.42
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April 16, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,124.42
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April 17, 2011weekendn/an/a0.00%$1,124.42
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April 18, 2011-1down, so sell1-1.10%$1,056.44$56.22
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April 19, 20110Stay same, hold00.57%$1,062.47
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April 20, 20110Stay same, hold01.35%$1,076.81
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April 21, 20111Up, buy10.53%$1,136.64$53.84
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April 22, 2011holidayn/an/a0.00%$1,136.64
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