| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | |
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1 | Actuals | Actuals | Actuals | Actuals | Actuals | Actuals | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | Forecast | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | Nintendo Income Statement (¥ Millions) | FY 2017 | FY 2018 | FY 2019 | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 | FY 2027 | ||||||||||||||||||
3 | Mar 2017 | Mar 2018 | Mar 2019 | Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | Mar 2022 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | Mar 2027 | Notes: | ||||||||||||||||||
4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
5 | Currency Rates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | USD/YEN (Average) | 112 | 111 | 111 | 109 | 106 | 112 | 130 | 139 | 139 | 139 | 139 | ||||||||||||||||||
7 | USD/YEN (EoY) | 111 | 106 | 111 | 108 | 111 | 122 | 139 | 139 | 139 | 139 | 139 | Do not have plug-in for live link to fx rate, so input current rate manually. Last updated on 11/27/22 | |||||||||||||||||
8 | USD/EUR (Average) | 120 | 130 | 128 | 121 | 124 | 131 | 141 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | ||||||||||||||||||
9 | USD/EUR (EoY) | 120 | 131 | 124 | 119 | 129 | 136 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | 145 | Do not have plug-in for live link to fx rate, so input current rate manually. Last updated on 11/27/22 | |||||||||||||||||
10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | Video Game Platform Revenue | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
13 | Nintendo Switch Hardware Sales Volume | 2.7 | 15.1 | 17.0 | 21.0 | 28.8 | 23.1 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | Management is guiding 19 million Switch hardware units for FY 2023, downgraded from guidance for 21M units at start of FY 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
14 | YoY Growth % | 449.3% | 12.8% | 24.0% | 37.0% | -20.0% | -17.00% | -20.00% | -25.00% | -35.00% | -40.00% | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | Other Legacy Hardware Sales Volume | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | - | - | - | - | - | - | ||||||||||||||||||
16 | Total Existing Hardware Sales Volume (million units) | 10.8 | 21.4 | 19.5 | 21.7 | 29.0 | 23.1 | 19.1 | 15.3 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
17 | Nintendo Switch Total Installed Base (million units) | 2.7 | 17.8 | 34.8 | 55.8 | 84.6 | 107.7 | 126.8 | 142.1 | 153.6 | 161.1 | 165.5 | ||||||||||||||||||
18 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
19 | Implied ARPU (Yen) | 34,482 | 30,130 | 30,894 | 34,420 | 38,413 | 39,770 | 39,900 | 39,900 | 39,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||
20 | YoY Growth % | -12.6% | 2.5% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
21 | Implied ARPU (USD) | 311 | 277 | 291 | 306 | 317 | 318 | 319 | 319 | 319 | ||||||||||||||||||||
22 | YoY Growth % | -10.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
23 | Theoretical Volume Weighted ARPU (USD) | 300 | 271 | 270 | 297 | 306 | 307 | 308 | 308 | 308 | ||||||||||||||||||||
24 | Delta % | 3.6% | 2.4% | 7.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||
25 | Volume Weighted Yen Depreciation/(Appreciation) | -0.2% | -2.2% | -0.4% | 3.7% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
26 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 | % Volume Split by Switch Model | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
28 | Switch - Standard | 100% | 71% | 70% | 59% | 37% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 30% | Forecast FY2023 based on disclosed Switch model splits for Q1 FY 2023. | |||||||||||||||||||
29 | Switch - OLED | 0% | 0% | 0% | 25% | 46% | 50% | 52% | 52% | 52% | Thereafter assume OLED rises to 52%, taking from standard model. Assume Lite stays flattish around 18% | |||||||||||||||||||
30 | Switch - Lite | 0% | 29% | 30% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | Assume Lite targets a different segment/purpose to Standard and OLED, so OLED should take from Standard not Lite | |||||||||||||||||||
31 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
32 | Listed Retail Prices (USD) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
33 | Switch - Standard | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | 300 | ||||||||||||||||||||
34 | Switch - OLED | 350 | 350 | 350 | 350 | 350 | 350 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
35 | Switch - Lite | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | 200 | |||||||||||||||||||||
36 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
37 | Switch Hardware Sales Volume Split by Region % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
38 | Japan | 23% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 23% | ||||||||||||||||||||
39 | Americas | 41% | 39% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | 38% | ||||||||||||||||||||
40 | Europe | 27% | 25% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | ||||||||||||||||||||
41 | Other | 10% | 11% | 14% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 13% | ||||||||||||||||||||
42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
43 | Total Existing Hardware Revenue (¥ Millions) | 673,118 | 654,670 | 895,925 | 793,385 | 734,905 | 608,695 | 458,008 | 297,705 | 178,623 | ||||||||||||||||||||
44 | YoY Growth % | -2.7% | 36.9% | -11.4% | -7.4% | -17.2% | -24.8% | -35.0% | -40.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
46 | Nintendo Switch Software Sales Volume | 5.5 | 63.5 | 118.6 | 168.7 | 230.9 | 235.1 | 211.6 | 179.8 | 152.9 | 122.3 | 91.7 | Management is guiding 210 million Switch software units for FY 2023 | |||||||||||||||||
47 | YoY Growth % | 1063.2% | 86.7% | 42.3% | 36.8% | 1.8% | -10.00% | -15.00% | -15.00% | -20.00% | -25.00% | |||||||||||||||||||
48 | Other Legacy Software Sales Volume | 73.8 | 40.8 | 15.1 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | - | - | ||||||||||||||||||
49 | Total Existing Software Sales Volume (million units) | 79.2 | 104.3 | 133.7 | 174.9 | 234.7 | 237.3 | 213.1 | 180.8 | 153.4 | 122.3 | 91.7 | ||||||||||||||||||
50 | Nintendo Switch Cumulative Attach Rate | 2.0x | 3.9x | 5.4x | 6.4x | 6.9x | 7.6x | 8.2x | 8.5x | 8.9x | 9.2x | 9.5x | The Game Cube achieved a 9.6x attach rate and highest ever attach rate achieved was PS4 at 12.1x - I think Switch will end up somewhere in between | |||||||||||||||||
51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
52 | Implied ARPU (Yen) | 3,299 | 3,078 | 2,829 | 2,901 | 3,119 | 3,180 | 3,132 | 3,101 | 3,070 | ||||||||||||||||||||
53 | YoY Growth % | -6.7% | -8.1% | 2.5% | 7.5% | 1.9% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -1.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
54 | Implied ARPU (USD) | 30 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 25 | 25 | 24 | 24 | 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||
55 | YoY Growth % | -4.8% | -5.7% | -3.2% | -2.0% | -2.0% | -1.5% | -1.0% | -1.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
56 | Volume Weighted Yen Depreciation/(Appreciation) | -0.3% | -2.6% | -0.4% | 4.3% | 9.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||
57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
58 | Switch Software Sales Volume Split by Region % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
59 | Japan | 18% | 19% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | 18% | ||||||||||||||||||||
60 | Americas | 45% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | ||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Europe | 30% | 30% | 29% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | 28% | ||||||||||||||||||||
62 | Other | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 8% | ||||||||||||||||||||
63 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
64 | Existing Software Revenue from Packaged Software sold physically and digitally (¥ Millions) | 440,990 | 538,258 | 664,074 | 688,336 | 664,617 | 574,966 | 480,294 | 379,153 | 281,521 | ||||||||||||||||||||
65 | YoY Growth % | 22.1% | 23.4% | 3.7% | -3.4% | -13.5% | -16.5% | -21.1% | -25.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||
66 | % of Total Software Revenue | 92.0% | 89.8% | 82.6% | 81.4% | 79.0% | 75.1% | 70.7% | 64.5% | 56.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||
67 | Attach rate was 36% as of Sept 2021 (32m members / 90 m switch installed base) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
68 | Nintendo Switch Online Attach Rate (as % of Switch Installed Base) | 31% | 31% | 32% | 32% | 34% | Management hasn't disclosed new member numbers but said membership has grown with hardware but that there has also been churn | |||||||||||||||||||||||
69 | Implied NSO Total Members | 39 | 44 | 49 | 52 | 56 | To reflect churn and higher installed base, assume 31% attach rate for FY 2023, rising to 34% by FY 2027. For comparison Sony Playstation ecosystem has roughly 43% attach rate today. 34% seems reasonable given I expect v large installed base for Switch | |||||||||||||||||||||||
70 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
71 | NSO Blended Annual Membership Fee (Yen) | 2,667 | 2,921 | 3,036 | 3,036 | 3,036 | 3,036 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
72 | YoY Growth % | 10% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
73 | NSO Blended Annual Membership Fee (USD) | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | 24 | Assume a rough split between NSO Individual, NSO Individual + Extension Pack, and NSO Family | ||||||||||||||||||||||
74 | YoY Growth % | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
75 | Volume Weighted Yen Depreciation/(Appreciation) | 9.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
76 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | Nintendo Switch Online Subscription Revenue | 114,842 | 133,763 | 149,231 | 156,480 | 170,881 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
79 | Software Revenue from DLC (incl. Add-Ons) and Nintendo Switch Online Subscriptions | 38,491 | 61,230 | 140,049 | 157,505 | 176,679 | 191,090 | 198,974 | 208,640 | 219,078 | ||||||||||||||||||||
80 | % of which is NSO subscriptions | 65.0% | 70.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% | 78.0% | Assume NSO subscriptions are majority of this revenue because Nintendo has begun bundling DLC and Add-On content with NSO subs. I also assume they will build out NSO library. So assume this % grows over time | |||||||||||||||||||||||
81 | YoY Growth % | 59.1% | 128.7% | 12.5% | 12.2% | 8.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||
82 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
83 | Total Existing Digital Revenue | 118,800 | 204,100 | 344,100 | 359,600 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
84 | % Total Software Revenue | 24.8% | 34.0% | 42.8% | 42.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
85 | % Total Video Game Platform Revenue | 10.3% | 16.3% | 20.2% | 21.9% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
86 | Implied Revenue from Physically Packaged Software | 360,681 | 395,388 | 460,023 | 486,241 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
87 | % Total Software Revenue | 75.2% | 66.0% | 57.2% | 57.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
88 | Implied Revenue from Downloadable Versions of Physically Packaged Software | 80,309 | 142,870 | 204,051 | 202,095 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
89 | % of Total Digital Revenue | 67.6% | 70.0% | 59.3% | 56.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
90 | % of Total Software Revenue | 17% | 24% | 25% | 24% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
91 | Implied Revenue from DLC and Nintendo Switch Online | 38,491 | 61,230 | 140,049 | 157,505 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | % of Total Digital Revenue | 32.4% | 30.0% | 40.7% | 43.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | % of Total Software Revenue | 8% | 10% | 17% | 19% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | Total Existing Software Revenue (¥ Millions) | 479,481 | 599,488 | 804,123 | 845,841 | 841,296 | 766,056 | 679,268 | 587,792 | 500,599 | ||||||||||||||||||||
96 | YoY Growth % | 25.0% | 34.1% | 5.2% | -0.5% | -8.9% | -11.3% | -13.5% | -14.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||
97 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | Next Gen Console Hardware Volume (million units) - Switch Pro? Switch 2? Something New? | 1.6 | 9.0 | 10.2 | Various media reports believe 2024 is possible for a launch or even late 2023. I assume mid 2024 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | YoY Growth % | 449.27% | 12.76% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | Volume as % of Switch launch volume | 60% | 60% | 60% |