A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | T | U | V | W | X | Y | Z | AA | AB | AC | AD | AE | AF | |
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1 | https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/2016-election/ | Richard Charnin | DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2 | http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/michigan/exit/ | Adjustments to recorded vote | Probability analysis | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
3 | http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html | Sanders | Clinton | Margin | 26 | exit polls | Prob | 1 in | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
4 | http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results | Recorded | 16,659,527 | 47.14% | 18,677,619 | 52.86% | -2,018,092 | 11 | > MoE | =binomdist(11,26,0.025,false) | 1.26E-11 | 79,364,625,538 | ||||||||||||||||||||
5 | http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls | Adj1: Exit Poll+Caucus | 708,998 | -752,659 | 1,461,658 | 11 | >=MoE | =1-binomdist(10,26,0.025,true) | 1.30E-11 | 76,829,636,415 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
6 | 17,368,525 | 49.21% | 17,924,960 | 50.79% | -556,435 | 24 | decline in vote | =binomdist(24,26,0.5,false) | 4.84E-06 | 206,489 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
7 | Adj2:voter rolls;abs;prov | 5% | 2% | 24 | or more decline in vote | =1-binomdist(23,26,0.5,true) | 5.25E-06 | 190,650 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
8 | Delegates | 3138 | P(24 of 27=36) | 2.03E-20 | 49,235,648,875,423,400,000 | EP Disc*votes | 0.00% | 156448.1405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
9 | TRUE VOTE | 18,236,951 | 49.94% | 18,283,459 | 50.06% | -46,507 | 0.005769230769 | Delegates | 3138 | 2,524,245 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
10 | Super Tuesday Mar.1 | 2,702,352 | 26 | Sanders | 1,567 | 1,571 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
11 | RECORDED VOTE | Average | 50.6% | 49.2% | Average | 48.9% | 51.0% | Assume: Caucus state votes= 50% of 2014 vote | Electoral Vote | 0.5 | %voted primary | |||||||||||||||||||||
12 | Yellow: FRAUD? | 2-party | votes | 2-party | Vote shares | 2pty Exit Poll | 2-party Exit Poll (if EP is na, use recorded vote shares) | Change | 328 | 210 | 538 | 16,153,374 | 19,183,772 | |||||||||||||||||||
13 | C Caucus | Clinton | Sanders | Margin | Total | Clinton | Sanders | Margin | Margin | Clinton | Sanders | Margin | Clinton | Sanders | Margin | 35 | 16 | 2014 | ||||||||||||||
14 | Caucus/MoE | Total | Type | 18,677,619 | 16,659,527 | -2,018,092 | 35,337,146 | 52.86% | 47.14% | -5.7% | 7.14% | 50.79% | 49.21% | -1.6% | 17,924,960 | 17,368,525 | -556,435 | Sanders | Clinton | EV | 92,251 | |||||||||||
15 | Iowa | C | 2/1/2016 | Semi-open | 301,611 | 299,889 | -1,721 | 601,500 | 50.1% | 49.9% | -0.3% | 50.1% | 49.9% | -0.3% | 301,611 | 299,889 | -1,721 | IA | 6 | 6? | 6 | 1,203 | ||||||||||
16 | New Hampshire | 2.64% | 2/9/2016 | Semi-closed | 95,252 | 151,584 | 56,332 | 246,836 | 38.6% | 61.4% | 22.8% | -2.0% | 39.6% | 60.4% | 20.8% | 97,747 | 149,089 | 51,342 | NH | 4 | 4 | 509 | ||||||||||
17 | Nevada | C | 2/20/2016 | Closed | 144,814 | 130,186 | -14,628 | 275,000 | 52.7% | 47.3% | -5.3% | 52.7% | 47.3% | -5.3% | 144,814 | 130,186 | -14,628 | NV | 6 | 6? | 6 | 693 | ||||||||||
18 | South Carolina | 3.09% | 2/27/2016 | Open | 271,514 | 95,977 | -175,537 | 367,491 | 73.9% | 26.1% | -47.8% | 10.4% | 68.7% | 31.3% | -37.3% | 252,356 | 115,135 | -137,222 | SC | 9 | 9 | 1,514 | ||||||||||
19 | Vermont | 2.28% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 18,335 | 115,863 | 97,528 | 134,198 | 13.7% | 86.3% | 72.7% | 1.4% | 13.0% | 87.0% | 74.0% | 17,416 | 116,782 | 99,366 | VT | 3 | 3 | 205 | ||||||||||
20 | Virginia | 3.33% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 503,358 | 275,507 | -227,851 | 778,865 | 64.6% | 35.4% | -29.3% | 4.4% | 62.4% | 37.6% | -24.9% | 486,400 | 292,465 | -193,934 | VA | 13 | 13 | 2,453 | ||||||||||
21 | Georgia | 3.37% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 543,008 | 214,332 | -328,676 | 757,340 | 71.7% | 28.3% | -43.4% | 12.0% | 65.7% | 34.3% | -31.4% | 497,724 | 259,616 | -238,109 | GA | 16 | 16 | 2,919 | ||||||||||
22 | Texas | 3.45% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 935,080 | 475,561 | -459,519 | 1,410,641 | 66.3% | 33.7% | -32.6% | 9.5% | 61.5% | 38.5% | -23.0% | 867,866 | 542,775 | -325,092 | TX | 38 | 38 | 5,836 | ||||||||||
23 | Massachusetts | 3.53% | 3/1/2016 | Semi-closed | 603,784 | 586,716 | -17,068 | 1,190,500 | 50.7% | 49.3% | -1.4% | 8.0% | 46.7% | 53.3% | 6.5% | 556,297 | 634,203 | 77,906 | MA | 11 | 11? | 11 | 2,259 | |||||||||
24 | Alabama | 3.93% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 309,928 | 76,399 | -233,529 | 386,327 | 80.2% | 19.8% | -60.4% | 14.1% | 73.2% | 26.8% | -46.3% | 282,639 | 103,688 | -178,951 | AL | 9 | 9 | 1,497 | ||||||||||
25 | Tennessee | 3.96% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 245,304 | 120,333 | -124,971 | 365,637 | 67.1% | 32.9% | -34.2% | 7.8% | 63.2% | 36.8% | -26.3% | 230,989 | 134,648 | -96,340 | TN | 11 | 11 | 1,763 | ||||||||||
26 | Arkansas | 4.00% | 3/1/2016 | Open | 144,580 | 64,868 | -79,712 | 209,448 | 69.0% | 31.0% | -38.1% | 6.0% | 66.0% | 34.0% | -32.0% | 138,278 | 71,170 | -67,109 | AR | 6 | 6 | 798 | ||||||||||
27 | Oklahoma | 4.47% | 3/1/2016 | Semi-closed | 139,338 | 174,054 | 34,716 | 313,392 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 11.1% | -6.7% | 47.8% | 52.2% | 4.4% | 149,785 | 163,607 | 13,821 | OK | 7 | 7 | 920 | ||||||||||
28 | Colorado * | C | 3/1/2016 | Closed | 448,959 | 656,541 | 207,582 | 1,105,500 | 40.6% | 59.4% | 18.8% | 40.6% | 59.4% | 18.8% | 448,959 | 656,541 | 207,582 | CO | 9 | 9 | 2,211 | |||||||||||
29 | Minnesota * | C | 3/1/2016 | Open | 392,588 | 630,912 | 238,324 | 1,023,500 | 38.4% | 61.6% | 23.3% | 38.4% | 61.6% | 23.3% | 392,588 | 630,912 | 238,324 | MN | 10 | 10 | 2,047 | |||||||||||
30 | Kansas * | C | 3/5/2016 | Closed | 155,143 | 325,857 | 170,715 | 481,000 | 32.3% | 67.7% | 35.5% | 32.3% | 67.7% | 35.5% | 155,143 | 325,857 | 170,715 | KS | 6 | 6 | 962 | |||||||||||
31 | Nebraska * | C | 3/5/2016 | Closed | 124,071 | 165,429 | 41,357 | 289,500 | 42.9% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 42.9% | 57.1% | 14.3% | 124,071 | 165,429 | 41,357 | NE | 5 | 5 | 579 | |||||||||||
32 | Louisiana | 3/5/2016 | Closed | 221,615 | 72,240 | -149,375 | 293,855 | 75.4% | 24.6% | -50.8% | 75.4% | 24.6% | -50.8% | 221,615 | 72,240 | -149,375 | LA | 8 | 8 | 1,677 | ||||||||||||
33 | Maine * | C | 3/6/2016 | Closed | 114,376 | 206,624 | 92,248 | 321,000 | 35.6% | 64.4% | 28.7% | 35.6% | 64.4% | 28.7% | 114,376 | 206,624 | 92,248 | ME | 4 | 4 | 642 | |||||||||||
34 | Michigan | 3.28% | 3/8/2016 | Open | 570,948 | 590,386 | 19,438 | 1,161,334 | 49.2% | 50.8% | 1.7% | 4.7% | 46.8% | 53.2% | 6.3% | 543,931 | 617,403 | 73,472 | MI | 16 | 16 | 3,416 | ||||||||||
35 | Mississippi | 3.36% | 3/8/2016 | Open | 182,282 | 36,284 | -145,998 | 218,566 | 83.4% | 16.6% | -66.8% | 9.8% | 78.5% | 21.5% | -57.0% | 182,282 | 36,284 | -145,998 | MS | 6 | 6 | 907 | ||||||||||
36 | North Carolina | 3.03% | 3/15/2016 | Semi-closed | 616,383 | 460,316 | -156,067 | 1,076,699 | 57.2% | 42.8% | -14.5% | 1.8% | 56.3% | 43.7% | -12.7% | 606,559 | 470,140 | -136,419 | NC | 15 | 15 | 3,170 | ||||||||||
37 | Florida | 3.03% | 3/15/2016 | Closed | 1,097,400 | 566,603 | -530,797 | 1,664,003 | 65.9% | 34.1% | -31.9% | 4.0% | 64.0% | 36.0% | -27.9% | 1,064,227 | 599,776 | -464,451 | FL | 29 | 29 | 6,220 | ||||||||||
38 | Ohio | 3.12% | 3/15/2016 | Semi-open | 679,266 | 513,549 | -165,717 | 1,192,815 | 56.9% | 43.1% | -13.9% | 10.1% | 51.9% | 48.1% | -3.8% | 619,300 | 573,515 | -45,785 | OH | 18 | 18? | 18 | 3,378 | |||||||||
39 | Illinois | 3.48% | 3/15/2016 | Open | 1,007,382 | 971,555 | -35,827 | 1,978,937 | 50.9% | 49.1% | -1.8% | 4.1% | 48.8% | 51.2% | 2.3% | 966,504 | 1,012,433 | 45,929 | IL | 20 | 20? | 20 | 3,734 | |||||||||
40 | Missouri | 4.42% | 3/15/2016 | Open | 310,602 | 309,071 | -1,531 | 619,673 | 50.1% | 49.9% | -0.2% | 4.0% | 48.1% | 51.9% | 3.8% | 298,198 | 321,475 | 23,277 | MO | 10 | 10? | 10 | 1,713 | |||||||||
41 | Arizona EP Yavapai | 3.89% | 3/22/2016 | Closed | 235,697 | 163,400 | -72,297 | 399,097 | 59.1% | 40.9% | -18.1% | 44.1% | 37.0% | 63.0% | 26.0% | 147,666 | 251,431 | 103,765 | AZ | 11 | 11? | 11 | 1,785 | Assume: a precinct of N black voters. | 110 | |||||||
42 | Idaho | C | 3/22/2016 | Open | 50,820 | 180,180 | 129,360 | 231,000 | 22.0% | 78.0% | 56.0% | 22.0% | 78.0% | 56.0% | 50,820 | 180,180 | 129,360 | ID | 4 | 4 | 462 | The margin of error = MoE=1.96*sqrt(.96*.04/N). | MoE | 0.036621 | ||||||||
43 | Utah | C | 3/22/2016 | Semi-open | 72,761 | 278,740 | 205,979 | 351,500 | 20.7% | 79.3% | 58.6% | 20.7% | 79.3% | 58.6% | 72,761 | 278,740 | 205,979 | UT | 6 | 6 | 703 | 1 in | 27.31 | |||||||||
44 | Alaska | C | 3/26/2016 | Closed | 16,531 | 73,469 | 56,939 | 127,500 | 18.4% | 81.6% | 63.3% | 18.4% | 81.6% | 63.3% | 16,531 | 73,469 | 56,939 | AK | 3 | 3 | 255 | |||||||||||
45 | Hawaii | C | 3/26/2016 | Semi-closed | 60,019 | 139,481 | 79,462 | 199,500 | 30.1% | 69.9% | 39.8% | 30.1% | 69.9% | 39.8% | 60,019 | 139,481 | 79,462 | HI | 4 | 4 | 399 | |||||||||||
46 | Washington | C | 3/26/2016 | Open | 324,434 | 870,566 | 546,131 | 1,195,000 | 27.1% | 72.9% | 45.7% | 27.1% | 72.9% | 45.7% | 324,434 | 870,566 | 546,131 | WA | 12 | 12 | 2,390 | a) The probability P that all voted for Obama is | ||||||||||
47 | Wisconsin (EP est) | 2.99% | 4/5/2016 | Open | 429,738 | 563,127 | 133,389 | 992,865 | 43.3% | 56.7% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 37.0% | 63.0% | 26.0% | 367,360 | 625,505 | 258,145 | WI | 10 | 10 | 2,343 | P=normdist (0.96,1.0, MoE /1.96,true). | 1 in | 0.016142 | |||||||
48 | Wyoming | C | 4/9/2016 | Semi-closed | 38,958 | 47,042 | 8,084 | 86,000 | 45.3% | 54.7% | 9.4% | 45.3% | 54.7% | 9.4% | 38,958 | 47,042 | 8,084 | WY | 3 | 3 | 172 | 61.95 | ||||||||||
49 | New York | 3.52% | 4/19/2016 | Closed | 1,037,344 | 752,739 | -284,605 | 1,790,083 | 57.9% | 42.1% | -15.9% | 11.9% | 52.0% | 48.0% | -4.0% | 930,843 | 859,240 | -71,603 | NY | 29 | 29? | 29 | 4,680 | |||||||||
50 | Pennsylvania | 3.50% | 4/26/2016 | Closed | 918,649 | 719,911 | -198,738 | 1,638,560 | 56.1% | 43.9% | -12.1% | 2.7% | 54.7% | 45.3% | -9.4% | 896,602 | 741,958 | -154,643 | PA | 20 | 20 | 3,803 | ||||||||||
51 | Connecticut | 3.64% | 4/26/2016 | Closed | 169,763 | 152,895 | -16,868 | 322,658 | 52.6% | 47.4% | -5.2% | 1.9% | 51.6% | 48.4% | -3.3% | 166,618 | 156,040 | -10,579 | CT | 7 | 7? | 7 | 1,195 | |||||||||
52 | Maryland | 4.13% | 4/26/2016 | Closed | 533,656 | 281,700 | -251,956 | 815,356 | 65.5% | 34.5% | -30.9% | -0.4% | 65.6% | 34.4% | -31.3% | 535,182 | 280,174 | -255,008 | MD | 10 | 10 | 2,028 | ||||||||||
53 | Delaware | 4/26/2016 | Closed | 55,950 | 36,659 | -19,291 | 92,609 | 60.4% | 39.6% | -20.8% | 60.4% | 39.6% | -20.8% | 24,162 | 15,838 | -8,325 | DE | 3 | 3 | 299 | ||||||||||||
54 | Rhode Island | 4/26/2016 | Semi-closed | 52,593 | 66,720 | 14,127 | 119,313 | 44.1% | 55.9% | 11.8% | 44.1% | 55.9% | 11.8% | 52,593 | 66,720 | 14,127 | RI | 4 | 4 | 331 | ||||||||||||
55 | Indiana | 3.48% | 5/3/2016 | Open | 302,676 | 333,348 | 30,672 | 636,024 | 47.6% | 52.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 44.6% | 55.4% | 10.7% | 283,921 | 352,103 | 68,182 | IN | 11 | 11 | 1,646 | ||||||||||
56 | Guam | 5/7/2016 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
57 | West Virginia | 4.61% | 5/10/2016 | Semi-closed | 84,176 | 120,231 | 36,055 | 204,407 | 35.8% | 51.4% | 15.6% | 3.7% | 38.1% | 57.4% | 19.3% | 77,879 | 117,330 | 39,451 | WV | 5 | 5 | 484 | ||||||||||
58 | Kentucky | 93% in | 5/17/2016 | Closed | 212,550 | 210,626 | -1,924 | 423,176 | 50.2% | 49.8% | -0.5% | 50.2% | 49.8% | -0.5% | 212,550 | 210,626 | -1,924 | KY | 8 | 8? | 8 | 1,525 | ||||||||||
59 | Oregon | 5/17/2016 | Closed | 261,145 | 341,472 | 80,327 | 602,617 | 43.3% | 56.7% | 13.3% | 43.3% | 56.7% | 13.3% | 261,145 | 341,472 | 80,327 | OR | 7 | 7 | 1,594 | ||||||||||||
60 | Virgin Islands | 6/4/2016 | Closed | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
61 | Puerto Rico | 6/5/2016 | Open | 36,026 | 22,768 | -13,258 | 58,794 | 61.3% | 38.7% | -22.5% | 61.3% | 38.7% | -22.5% | 36,026 | 22,768 | -13,258 | ||||||||||||||||
62 | California | July 7 | 6/7/2016 | Semi-closed | 2,745,293 | 2,381,714 | -363,579 | 5,127,007 | 53.5% | 46.5% | -7.1% | 53.5% | 46.5% | -7.1% | 2,745,293 | 2,381,714 | -363,579 | CA | 55 | 55? | 55 | 8,949 | ||||||||||
63 | Montana | 95% in | 6/7/2016 | Open | 55,194 | 63,160 | 7,966 | 136,500 | 40.4% | 59.6% | 19.1% | 40.4% | 59.6% | 19.1% | 55,194 | 81,306 | 26,112 | MT | 3 | 3 | 391 | |||||||||||
64 | New Jersey | 98% in | 6/7/2016 | Closed | 554,237 | 323,259 | -230,978 | 877,496 | 63.2% | 36.8% | -26.3% | 63.2% | 36.8% | -26.3% | 554,237 | 323,259 | -230,978 | NJ | 14 | 14 | 2,151 | |||||||||||
65 | New Mexico | 98% in | 6/7/2016 | Closed | 110,451 | 103,856 | -6,595 | 214,307 | 51.5% | 48.5% | -3.1% | 51.5% | 48.5% | -3.1% | 110,451 | 103,856 | -6,595 | NM | 5 | 5? | 5 | 646 | ||||||||||
66 | North Dakota | C | 6/7/2016 | Open | 39,768 | 99,732 | 59,963 | 139,500 | 28.5% | 71.5% | 43.0% | 28.5% | 71.5% | 43.0% | 39,768 | 99,732 | 59,963 | ND | 3 | 3 | 279 | |||||||||||
67 | South Dakota | 6/7/2016 | Semi-open | 27,047 | 25,959 | -1,088 | 53,006 | 51.0% | 49.0% | -2.1% | 51.0% | 49.0% | -2.1% | 27,047 | 25,959 | -1,088 | SD | 3 | 3? | 3 | 273 | |||||||||||
68 | District of Columbia | 6/14/2016 | Closed | 75,223 | 20,137 | -55,086 | 95,360 | 78.9% | 21.1% | -57.8% | 78.9% | 21.1% | -57.8% | 75,223 | 20,137 | -55,086 | DC | 3 | 3 | 247 | ||||||||||||
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76 | Exceed MoE | Exit Polls | 26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
77 | AVG | 65.4% | exact | Probability | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
78 | Caucus | Sanders | Semi-open | 722,679 | 601,537 | -121,142 | 1,324,216 | 54.6% | 45.4% | -9.1% | Probability | N | Prob | Prob | 1 in | Sanders | EV | |||||||||||||||
79 | 1 | IA | 49.9% | at least | 1 in | 0 | 51.77% | 5.18E-01 | 2 | 47.57% | 538 | |||||||||||||||||||||
80 | 2 | CO | 59.4% | w | 1 | 2 | 1 | 34.52% | 3.45E-01 | 3 | 49.9% | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
81 | 3 | MN | 61.6% | w | 5.62E-24 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 11.06% | 1.11E-01 | 9 | 61.4% | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||
82 | 4 | NE | 57.1% | w | 3 | 38 | 3 | 2.27% | 2.27E-02 | 44 | 47.3% | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||
83 | 5 | KS | 67.7% | w | 4 | 266 | 4 | 0.33% | 3.35E-03 | 299 | 26.1% | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
84 | 6 | ME | 64.4% | w | Average | 5 | 2,415 | 5 | 0.04% | 3.77E-04 | 2,649 | 86.3% | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||
85 | 7 | ID | 78.0% | w | Sanders has won | share | Stdev | 6 | 27,384 | 6 | 0.003% | 3.39E-05 | 29,519 | 35.4% | 13 | |||||||||||||||||
86 | 8 | AK | 81.6% | w | 9 | 36 | Primaries | 43.9% | 13.5% | StdDiff | 0.107 | 7 | 378,644 | 7 | 0.0002% | 2.48E-06 | 402,938 | 28.3% | 16 | |||||||||||||
87 | 9 | HI | 69.9% | w | 13 | 14 | Caucuses | 65.4% | 10.9% | Z-score | 2.00 | 8 | 6,280,036 | 8 | 0.00002% | 1.51E-07 | 6,616,668 | 33.7% | 38 | |||||||||||||
88 | 10 | WA | 72.9% | w | 9 | 123,437,142 | 9 | 0.000001% | 7.75E-09 | 129,025,032 | 49.3% | 11 | ||||||||||||||||||||
89 | 11 | NV | 47.3% | w | 10 | 2,850,178,375 | 10 | 0.0000000% | 3.38E-10 | 2,959,986,034 | 19.8% | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||
90 | 12 | UT | 79.7% | w | There is a 96.9% probability that the 21% difference was not due to chance. | 11 | 76,829,636,415 | 11 | 0.0000000% | 1.26E-11 | 79,364,625,538 | 32.9% | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||
91 | 13 | WY | 54.7% | w | 97.73% | = normsdist (ZS) | 31.0% | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
92 | 14 | ND | 71.5% | w | Prob | 2.27% | 55.5% | 7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
93 | 59.4% | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
94 | 61.6% | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
95 | 67.7% | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
96 | Primaries | 9 | 57.1% | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
97 | 1 | SC | 26.1% | 24.6% | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
98 | 2 | NH | 61.4% | 64.4% | 4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
99 | 3 | AL | 19.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
100 | 4 | AR | 31.0% | 50.8% | 16 |