2016 Primary Election Model
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAF
1
https://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/category/2016-election/
Richard Charnin
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
2
http://www.cbsnews.com/elections/2016/primaries/democrat/michigan/exit/
Adjustments to recorded vote
Probability analysis
3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html
SandersClintonMargin26exit pollsProb1 in
4
http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results
Recorded16,659,52747.14%18,677,61952.86%-2,018,09211> MoE
=binomdist(11,26,0.025,false)
1.26E-1179,364,625,538
5
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls
Adj1: Exit Poll+Caucus
708,998-752,6591,461,65811
or more > MoE
=1-binomdist(10,26,0.025,true)
1.30E-1176,829,636,415
6
17,368,52549.21%17,924,96050.79%-556,43524
decline in vote
=binomdist(24,26,0.5,false)
4.84E-06206,489
7
Adj2:voter rolls;abs;prov
5%2%24
or more decline in vote
=1-binomdist(23,26,0.5,true)
5.25E-06190,650
8
Delegates3138
EP Disc*votes
0.00%156448.1405
9
TRUE VOTE
18,236,95149.94%18,283,45950.06%-46,5070.005769230769Delegates31382,524,245
10
Super Tuesday Mar.12,702,35226Sanders1,5671,571
11
RECORDED VOTE
Average50.6%49.2%Average48.9%51.0%
Assume: Caucus state votes= 50% of 2014 vote
Electoral Vote
0.5
%voted primary
12
Yellow: FRAUD?2-partyvotes2-party
Vote shares
2pty Exit Poll
2-party Exit Poll (if EP is na, use recorded vote shares)
Change32821053816,153,37419,183,772
13
C CaucusClinton SandersMarginTotalClinton SandersMarginMarginClinton SandersMarginClintonSandersMargin35162014
14
Caucus/MoE
TotalType18,677,61916,659,527-2,018,09235,337,14652.86%47.14%-5.7%7.14%50.79%49.21%-1.6%17,924,96017,368,525-556,435SandersClinton EV92,251
15
Iowa C2/1/2016Semi-open301,611299,889-1,721601,50050.1%49.9%-0.3%50.1%49.9%-0.3%301,611299,889-1,721IA66?61,203
16
New Hampshire2.64%2/9/2016Semi-closed95,252151,58456,332246,83638.6%61.4%22.8%-2.0%39.6%60.4%20.8%97,747149,08951,342NH44509
17
NevadaC2/20/2016Closed144,814130,186-14,628275,00052.7%47.3%-5.3%52.7%47.3%-5.3%144,814130,186-14,628NV66?6693
18
South Carolina 3.09%2/27/2016Open271,51495,977-175,537367,49173.9%26.1%-47.8%10.4%68.7%31.3%-37.3%252,356115,135-137,222SC991,514
19
Vermont2.28%3/1/2016Open18,335115,86397,528134,19813.7%86.3%72.7%1.4%13.0%87.0%74.0%17,416116,78299,366VT33205
20
Virginia3.33%3/1/2016Open503,358275,507-227,851778,86564.6%35.4%-29.3%4.4%62.4%37.6%-24.9%486,400292,465-193,934VA13132,453
21
Georgia3.37%3/1/2016Open543,008214,332-328,676757,34071.7%28.3%-43.4%12.0%65.7%34.3%-31.4%497,724259,616-238,109GA16162,919
22
Texas3.45%3/1/2016Open935,080475,561-459,5191,410,64166.3%33.7%-32.6%9.5%61.5%38.5%-23.0%867,866542,775-325,092TX38385,836
23
Massachusetts3.53%3/1/2016Semi-closed603,784586,716-17,0681,190,50050.7%49.3%-1.4%8.0%46.7%53.3%6.5%556,297634,20377,906MA1111?112,259
24
Alabama3.93%3/1/2016Open309,92876,399-233,529386,32780.2%19.8%-60.4%14.1%73.2%26.8%-46.3%282,639103,688-178,951AL991,497
25
Tennessee3.96%3/1/2016Open245,304120,333-124,971365,63767.1%32.9%-34.2%7.8%63.2%36.8%-26.3%230,989134,648-96,340TN11111,763
26
Arkansas4.00%3/1/2016Open144,58064,868-79,712209,44869.0%31.0%-38.1%6.0%66.0%34.0%-32.0%138,27871,170-67,109AR66798
27
Oklahoma4.47%3/1/2016Semi-closed139,338174,05434,716313,39244.5%55.5%11.1%-6.7%47.8%52.2%4.4%149,785163,60713,821OK77920
28
Colorado * C3/1/2016Closed448,959656,541207,5821,105,50040.6%59.4%18.8%40.6%59.4%18.8%448,959656,541207,582CO992,211
29
Minnesota * C3/1/2016Open392,588630,912238,3241,023,50038.4%61.6%23.3%38.4%61.6%23.3%392,588630,912238,324MN10102,047
30
Kansas *C3/5/2016Closed155,143325,857170,715481,00032.3%67.7%35.5%32.3%67.7%35.5%155,143325,857170,715KS66962
31
Nebraska *C3/5/2016Closed124,071165,42941,357289,50042.9%57.1%14.3%42.9%57.1%14.3%124,071165,42941,357NE55579
32
Louisiana3/5/2016Closed221,61572,240-149,375293,85575.4%24.6%-50.8%75.4%24.6%-50.8%221,61572,240-149,375LA881,677
33
Maine * C3/6/2016Closed114,376206,62492,248321,00035.6%64.4%28.7%35.6%64.4%28.7%114,376206,62492,248ME44642
34
Michigan3.28%3/8/2016Open570,948590,38619,4381,161,33449.2%50.8%1.7%4.7%46.8%53.2%6.3%543,931617,40373,472MI16163,416
35
Mississippi3.36%3/8/2016Open182,28236,284-145,998218,56683.4%16.6%-66.8%9.8%78.5%21.5%-57.0%182,28236,284-145,998MS66907
36
North Carolina3.03%3/15/2016Semi-closed616,383460,316-156,0671,076,69957.2%42.8%-14.5%1.8%56.3%43.7%-12.7%606,559470,140-136,419NC15153,170
37
Florida3.03%3/15/2016Closed1,097,400566,603-530,7971,664,00365.9%34.1%-31.9%4.0%64.0%36.0%-27.9%1,064,227599,776-464,451FL29296,220
38
Ohio3.12%3/15/2016Semi-open679,266513,549-165,7171,192,81556.9%43.1%-13.9%10.1%51.9%48.1%-3.8%619,300573,515-45,785OH1818?183,378
39
Illinois3.48%3/15/2016Open1,007,382971,555-35,8271,978,93750.9%49.1%-1.8%4.1%48.8%51.2%2.3%966,5041,012,43345,929IL2020?203,734
40
Missouri4.42%3/15/2016Open310,602309,071-1,531619,67350.1%49.9%-0.2%4.0%48.1%51.9%3.8%298,198321,47523,277MO1010?101,713
41
Arizona EP Yavapai
3.89%3/22/2016Closed235,697163,400-72,297399,09759.1%40.9%-18.1%44.1%37.0%63.0%26.0%147,666251,431103,765AZ1111?111,785
Assume: a precinct of N black voters.
110
42
IdahoC3/22/2016Open50,820180,180129,360231,00022.0%78.0%56.0%22.0%78.0%56.0%50,820180,180129,360ID44462
The margin of error = MoE=1.96*sqrt(.96*.04/N).
MoE0.036621
43
UtahC3/22/2016Semi-open72,761278,740205,979351,50020.7%79.3%58.6%20.7%79.3%58.6%72,761278,740205,979UT667031 in27.31
44
AlaskaC3/26/2016Closed16,53173,46956,939127,50018.4%81.6%63.3%18.4%81.6%63.3%16,53173,46956,939AK33255
45
HawaiiC3/26/2016Semi-closed60,019139,48179,462199,50030.1%69.9%39.8%30.1%69.9%39.8%60,019139,48179,462HI44399
46
WashingtonC3/26/2016Open324,434870,566546,1311,195,00027.1%72.9%45.7%27.1%72.9%45.7%324,434870,566546,131WA12122,390
a) The probability P that all voted for Obama is
47
Wisconsin (EP est)
2.99%4/5/2016Open429,738563,127133,389992,86543.3%56.7%13.4%12.6%37.0%63.0%26.0%367,360625,505258,145WI10102,343
P=normdist (0.96,1.0, MoE /1.96,true).
1 in0.016142
48
WyomingC4/9/2016Semi-closed38,95847,0428,08486,00045.3%54.7%9.4%45.3%54.7%9.4%38,95847,0428,084WY3317261.95
49
New York3.52%4/19/2016Closed1,037,344752,739-284,6051,790,08357.9%42.1%-15.9%11.9%52.0%48.0%-4.0%930,843859,240-71,603NY2929?294,680
50
Pennsylvania3.50%4/26/2016Closed918,649719,911-198,7381,638,56056.1%43.9%-12.1%2.7%54.7%45.3%-9.4%896,602741,958-154,643PA20203,803
51
Connecticut3.64%4/26/2016Closed169,763152,895-16,868322,65852.6%47.4%-5.2%1.9%51.6%48.4%-3.3%166,618156,040-10,579CT77?71,195
52
Maryland4.13%4/26/2016Closed533,656281,700-251,956815,35665.5%34.5%-30.9%-0.4%65.6%34.4%-31.3%535,182280,174-255,008MD10102,028
53
Delaware4/26/2016Closed55,95036,659-19,29192,60960.4%39.6%-20.8%60.4%39.6%-20.8%24,16215,838-8,325DE33299
54
Rhode Island4/26/2016Semi-closed52,59366,72014,127119,31344.1%55.9%11.8%44.1%55.9%11.8%52,59366,72014,127RI44331
55
Indiana3.48%5/3/2016Open302,676333,34830,672636,02447.6%52.4%4.8%5.9%44.6%55.4%10.7%283,921352,10368,182IN11111,646
56
Guam5/7/2016
57
West Virginia4.61%5/10/2016Semi-closed84,176120,23136,055204,40735.8%51.4%15.6%3.7%38.1%57.4%19.3%77,879117,33039,451WV55484
58
Kentucky 93% in5/17/2016Closed212,550210,626-1,924423,17650.2%49.8%-0.5%50.2%49.8%-0.5%212,550210,626-1,924KY88?81,525
59
Oregon5/17/2016Closed261,145341,47280,327602,61743.3%56.7%13.3%43.3%56.7%13.3%261,145341,47280,327OR771,594
60
Virgin Islands6/4/2016Closed
61
Puerto Rico6/5/2016Open36,02622,768-13,25858,79461.3%38.7%-22.5%61.3%38.7%-22.5%36,02622,768-13,258
62
CaliforniaJuly 76/7/2016Semi-closed2,745,2932,381,714-363,5795,127,00753.5%46.5%-7.1%53.5%46.5%-7.1%2,745,2932,381,714-363,579CA5555?558,949
63
Montana95% in6/7/2016Open55,19463,1607,966136,50040.4%59.6%19.1%40.4%59.6%19.1%55,19481,30626,112MT33391
64
New Jersey98% in6/7/2016Closed554,237323,259-230,978877,49663.2%36.8%-26.3%63.2%36.8%-26.3%554,237323,259-230,978NJ14142,151
65
New Mexico98% in6/7/2016Closed110,451103,856-6,595214,30751.5%48.5%-3.1%51.5%48.5%-3.1%110,451103,856-6,595NM55?5646
66
North DakotaC6/7/2016Open39,76899,73259,963139,50028.5%71.5%43.0%28.5%71.5%43.0%39,76899,73259,963ND33279
67
South Dakota6/7/2016Semi-open27,04725,959-1,08853,00651.0%49.0%-2.1%51.0%49.0%-2.1%27,04725,959-1,088SD33?3273
68
District of Columbia
6/14/2016Closed75,22320,137-55,08695,36078.9%21.1%-57.8%78.9%21.1%-57.8%75,22320,137-55,086DC33247
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
Exceed MoE
Exit Polls26
77
AVG65.4%exactProbability
78
CaucusSandersSemi-open722,679601,537-121,1421,324,21654.6%45.4%-9.1%cumNProbProb1 inSandersEV
79
1IA49.9%at least
Probability
051.77%5.18E-01247.57%538
80
2CO59.4%w12134.52%3.45E-01349.9%6
81
3MN61.6%w5.62E-2427211.06%1.11E-01961.4%4
82
4NE57.1%w33832.27%2.27E-024447.3%6
83
5KS67.7%w426640.33%3.35E-0329926.1%9
84
6ME64.4%wAverage52,41550.04%3.77E-042,64986.3%3
85
7ID78.0%w
Sanders has won
shareStdev627,38460.003%3.39E-0529,51935.4%13
86
8AK81.6%w936Primaries43.9%13.5%StdDiff0.1077378,64470.0002%2.48E-06402,93828.3%16
87
9HI69.9%w1314Caucuses65.4%10.9%Z-score2.0086,280,03680.00002%1.51E-076,616,66833.7%38
88
10WA72.9%w9123,437,14290.000001%7.75E-09129,025,03249.3%11
89
11NV47.3%w102,850,178,375100.0000000%3.38E-102,959,986,03419.8%9
90
12UT79.7%w
There is a 96.9% probability that the 21% difference was not due to chance.
1176,829,636,415110.0000000%1.26E-1179,364,625,53832.9%11
91
13WY54.7%w97.73%
= normsdist (ZS)
31.0%6
92
14ND71.5%wProb 2.27%55.5%7
93
59.4%9
94
61.6%10
95
67.7%6
96
Primaries957.1%5
97
1SC26.1%24.6%8
98
2NH61.4%64.4%4
99
3AL19.8%
100
4AR31.0%50.8%16
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