Romer and Romer (2008)
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_______________________________________FOMC FORECASTS REPORTED IN MONETARY REPORT_______________________________________
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NGDPRGDPINFLATIONUNEMPLOYMENTMIDPOINTS OF______________________________________________OUTCOMES______________________________________________
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Impt.RangeCentral Tend.RangeCentral Tend.RangeCentral Tend.RangeCentral Tend.CENTRAL TENDENCIES_____STAFF FORECASTS________________DATES_______________________NIPA (from Survey of Current Business)_____________CPI___UNEMP. RATE_____VALUES USED____________________CONCEPTS_______________Addl.
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YearReportForecast for:notesBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopBottomTopREALINFL.UNEM.SourceNOM.REALINFL.UNEM.GBFOMCMPRSourceNOMINALREALPRICE LEVELSrceCPISrceUNEM.NOM.REALINFL.UNEM.Nom.RealInflationUnemp.notesNOTES
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Prev. Q4Q4Prev. Q4Q4Prev. Q4Q4
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19792Current year(1) (2)810810-2-0.5-2-0.59.5119.5116.2576.257-1.2510.256.625GB8.154235145-1.2794231999.5559189896.97/3/19897/11/19797/17/19793/80 (HC)2235.22456.91426.61440.3156.68170.58GB5.99.9185755190.96032524888.8715853975.9GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(a)1. No separate ranges and central tendencies in MPR.
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19792Next year(1) (2)8.511.58.511.5-0.52-0.528.510.58.510.56.758.56.758.50.759.57.625GB9.7937713950.76614635548.9589860947.97/3/19897/11/19797/17/19793/81 (HC)2496.32730.61490.61485.6167.47183.81GB7.59.385891119-0.33543539519.7569713987.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(a)2. MPR says forecast represents "Board members."
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19801Current year(1) (3)7.5117.511-2.50.5-2.50.59119116.7586.758-1107.375GB6.954963759-2.1760289219.3341055167.71/30/19802/4-5/19802/19/19803/81 (HC)2496.32730.61490.61485.6167.47183.81GB7.59.385891119-0.33543539519.7569713987.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(b) (c) 3. MPR implies represents Board members only.
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19802Current year(1)57.557.5-5-2.5-5-2.59109108.59.258.59.25-3.759.58.875GB5.1-49.4442181918.97/2/19807/9/19807/22/19803/81 (HC)2496.32730.61490.61485.6167.47183.81GB7.59.385891119-0.33543539519.7569713987.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (e)4. Lower end of CT in MPR for CPI reported as 2, but looks like typo: CS gives 3, and text of MPR says CT is 3-3 1/2 (p. 69).
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19802Next year(1)8.511.58.511.50.530.537.759.57.759.589.2589.251.758.6258.625GB11.42.58.7496906368.77/2/19807/9/19807/22/19803/82 (HC)2730.62998.31485.61498.4183.81200.1GB8.49.8037061450.86160473888.8624122748.4GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (e)
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19811Current year(1)912912-1.51.5-1.51.5910.5910.588.588.509.758.25GB9.60.19.5454891268.51/28/19812/2-3/19812/25/19813/82 (HC)2730.62998.31485.61498.4183.81200.1GB8.49.8037061450.86160473888.8624122748.4GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (f)A. Use CPI from CS; checked against GB
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19812Current year(1)1011.51011.513.513.57.597.597.58.257.58.252.258.257.875GB10.82.58.0964683647.87/1/19817/6-7/19817/20/19813/82 (HC)2730.62998.31485.61498.4183.81200.1GB8.49.8037061450.86160473888.8624122748.4GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (g)B. Use PCE from CS; checked against GB
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19812Next year(1)9.512.259.512.2514146.58.56.58.578.578.52.57.57.75GB8.41.27.0464726568.37/1/19817/6-7/19817/20/19813/83 (HC)3003.23108.21490.11477.2201.55210.42GB10.73.496270645-0.86571371054.40089307910.7GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (g)
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19821Current year(1)810.5810.50.530.536.57.256.57.258.259.58.259.51.756.8758.875GB7.91.36.4436693339.31/27/19822/1-2/19822/10/19823/83 (HC)3003.23108.21490.11477.2201.55210.42GB10.73.496270645-0.86571371054.40089307910.7GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (f)a. MPR says forecast reflects "consensus" of participants.
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19822Current year(1) 5.57.55.57.50.51.50.51.54.7564.75699.7599.7515.3759.375GB5.80.65.2499469199.56/23/19826/30,7/1/19827/20/19823/83 (HC)3003.23108.21490.11477.2201.55210.42GB10.73.496270645-0.86571371054.40089307910.7GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (f)b. MPR also gives forecasts of level of employment and CPI inflation.
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19822Next year(1) 79.579.52.542.5445.7545.758.59.58.59.53.254.8759GB7.533.873456519.16/23/19826/30,7/1/19827/20/19823/84 (HC)3109.63436.21480.71572.5210218.53GB8.510.502958586.1997703794.0619047628.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (f)c. MPR says numbers are "ranges that encompass" views of participants.
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19831Current year7.2511.258935.53.54.53.55.5459.510.59.910.444.510.15GB7.53.54.34211751610.62/2/19832/8-9/19832/16/19833/84 (HC)3109.63436.21480.71572.5210218.53GB8.510.502958586.1997703794.0619047628.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.d. Not clear if non-voting bank presidents included in MPR forecast.
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19832Current year9.2510.759.75104.75655.7545.254.254.7599.759.59.55.3754.59.5GB9.65.53.8727663579.47/6/19837/12-13/19837/20/19833/84 (HC)3109.63436.21480.71572.5210218.53GB8.510.502958586.1997703794.0619047628.5GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) (h)e. MPR says numbers "generally encompass" views of participants.
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19832Next year710.259103544.53.256.54.2558.259.258.258.754.254.6258.5GB8.34.24.0059887578.67/6/19837/12-13/19837/20/19833/85 (HC)3431.73758.71572.71662.4218.21226.1GB7.29.5288049655.7035671143.6157829617.2GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(d) f. MPR says views of participants "generally fall within" or "fall generally within" numbers given.
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19841Current year810.59103.5544.75464.557.2587.57.754.3754.757.625GB9.14.34.5710581777.51/25/19841/30-31/19842/7/19843/85 (HC)3431.73758.71572.71662.4218.21226.1GB7.29.5288049655.7035671143.6157829617.2GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.g. MPR says views of participants "fall within" numbers given.
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19842Current year9.511.510.511676.256.753.254.544.56.57.256.7576.54.256.875GB10.46.33.8362609856.77/11/19847/16-17/19847/25/19843/85 (HC)3431.73758.71572.71662.4218.21226.1GB7.29.5288049655.7035671143.6157829617.2GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.h. CT for u in MPR is "About 9 1/2."
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19842Next year6.759.5892433.253.56.55.255.56.257.256.573.1255.3756.75GB8.12.85.1481379826.47/11/19847/16-17/19847/25/19843/86 (HC)3852.54059.33515.63590.8109.6113GB75.3679428942.1390374333.1021897817GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.i. CT for u in MPR is "About 6 1/2."
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19851Current year78.57.583.254.253.5434.753.546.57.256.7573.753.756.875GB7.23.63.5544009756.72/6/19852/12-13/19852/20/19853/86 (HC)3852.54059.33515.63590.8109.6113GB75.3679428942.1390374333.1021897817GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.j. CT for u in MPR is "Around 6 3/4."
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19852Current year6.257.756.572.253.252.7533.54.253.7546.757.2577.252.8753.8757.125GB5.82.23.5388900327.17/3/19857/9-10/19857/16/19853/86 (HC)3852.54059.33515.63590.8109.6113GB75.3679428942.1390374333.1021897817GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.k. CT for u in MPR is "Around 5 1/2."
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19852Next year5.58.577.5242.53.2535.53.754.756.757.56.757.252.8754.257GB6.32.53.7660459627.17/3/19857/9-10/19857/16/19853/87 (HC)4087.74258.73622.33696.1112.8115.2GB6.94.1832815522.0373795652.1276595746.9GNPReal GNP (1972$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.l. Forecast of real is for 1982$, but actual is 1987$.
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19861Current year58.56.57.252.754.2533.52.54.5346.256.756.56.53.253.56.5GB6.433.46.62/5/19862/11-12/19862/19/19863/87 (HC)4087.74258.73622.33696.1112.8115.2GB6.94.1832815522.0373795652.1276595746.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(i)m. CT for inflation in MPR is "About 3."
28
19862Current year3.756.54.755.752.253.52.531.53.252.252.756.97.2772.752.57GB5.12.72.46.97/2/19867/8-9/19867/18/19863/87 (HC)4087.74258.73622.33696.1112.8115.2GB6.94.1832815522.0373795652.1276595746.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.n. Forecast of real is for 1987$, but actual is chained $.
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19862Next year58.2567.524.2533.51.54.25346.576.756.753.253.56.75GB6.43.23.16.67/2/19867/8-9/19867/18/19863/88 (HC)4288.14607.43731.53880.8114.9118.7GB5.97.4461882894.0010719553.3072236735.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.(j)o. CT for u in MPR is "About 5 1/2."
30
19871Current year4.57.55.756.5242.532.5433.56.56.756.56.752.753.256.625GB5.82.82.96.62/4/19872/10-11/19872/19/19873/88 (HC)4288.14607.43731.53880.8114.9118.7GB5.97.4461882894.0010719553.3072236735.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.p. CS gives staff nom. as 4.5, but GB has 4.6 and is internally consistent. Couldn't find anything relevant in staff presentation or transcript.
31
19872Current year5.757.256.25723.752.5334.253.546.16.56.26.42.753.756.3GB6.633.56.37/1/19877/7/19877/21/19873/88 (HC)4288.14607.43731.53880.8114.9118.7GB5.97.4461882894.0010719553.3072236735.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.q. CT for u in MPR is "About 5 1/2."
32
19872Next year585.757132.532.553.754.255.96.866.52.7546.25GB6.32.33.86.37/1/19877/7/19877/21/19873/89 (HC)4662.84999.739234033.4118.9124GB5.37.2252723692.8141728274.2893187555.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.r. CT for u in MPR is "about 4 3/4."
33
19881Current year46.55.2560.5322.52.543.253.755.56.755.7562.253.55.875GB5.72.13.562/3/19882/9-10/19882/23/19883/89 (HC)4662.84999.739234033.4118.9124GB5.37.2252723692.8141728274.2893187555.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.s. CT for u in MPR is "About 4."
34
19882Current year475.756.7513.252.7532.75433.755.256.55.255.752.8753.3755.5GB6.72.93.75.76/22/19886/29-30/19887/13/19883/89 (HC)4662.84999.739234033.4118.9124GB5.37.2252723692.8141728274.2893187555.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.t. CT for u in MPR is "About 4 1/2."
35
19882Next year47.5571322.52534.5575.562.253.755.75GB62.13.85.96/22/19886/29-30/19887/13/19883/90 (HC)5017.35340.24069.44174.1123.3127.9GB5.36.4357323662.5728608643.7307380375.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)Impl. GNP Defl.Civil.
36
19891Current year5.58.56.57.51.53.252.533.55.54.55565.255.52.754.755.375GB(A)7.134.95.52/1/19892/7-8/19892/21/19893/90 (HC)5017.35340.24069.44174.1GB4.5GB5.36.4357323662.5728608644.55.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.ABBREVIATIONS:
37
19892Current year57.75671.52.7522.54.55.7555.5565.55.52.255.255.5GB(A)6.42.24.95.66/28/19897/5-6/19897/20/19893/90 (HC)5017.35340.24069.44174.1GB4.5GB5.36.4357323662.5728608644.55.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.(k)CS = Chart Show
38
19892Next year4.257.55.56.7512.51.5235.754.5556.55.561.754.755.75GB(A)61.64.66.16/28/19897/5-6/19897/20/19893/91 (HC)5289.35527.34133.24153.4GB6.3GB5.94.4996502370.48872544286.35.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.GB = Greenbook
39
19901Current year475.56.512.251.7523.5544.55.56.55.55.751.8754.255.625GB5.71.64.45.91/31/19902/6-7/902/20/19903/91 (HC)5289.35527.34133.24153.4GB6.3GB5.94.4996502370.48872544286.35.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.MPR = Monetary Policy Report
40
19902Current year56.55.56.5121.52454.555.56.55.55.751.754.755.625GB61.64.85.86/27/19907/2-3/907/18/19903/91 (HC)5289.35527.34133.24153.4GB6.3GB5.94.4996502370.48872544286.35.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.CT = Central tendency
41
19902Next year3.575.256.5031.752.53.553.754.55.2575.562.1254.1255.75GB6.42.24.56.16/27/19907/2-3/907/18/19903/92 (HC)5583.25750.74877.74877.3GB2.9GB6.93.000071644-0.0082005863422.96.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.(l)HC = Hard copy
42
19911Current year3.55.53.754.25-0.51.50.751.534.53.2546.257.56.571.1253.6256.75GB5.91.93.96.11/30/19912/5-6/19912/20/19913/92 (HC)5583.25750.74877.74877.3GB2.9GB6.93.000071644-0.0082005863422.96.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.(l)OL = On-line
43
19912Current year3.755.754.55.250.51.50.75134.53.253.756.576.7570.8753.56.875GB5.31.53.46.66/26/19917/2-3/19917/16/19913/92 (HC)5583.25750.74877.74877.3GB2.9GB6.93.000071644-0.0082005863422.96.9GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.(l)MLR = Monthly Labor Review
44
19912Next year46.755.56.523.52.2532.54.253466.756.256.52.6253.56.375GB6.12.83.76.36/26/19917/2-3/19917/16/19913/93 (HC)5764.16086.84848.24995.9GB3GB7.35.5984455513.04649148137.3GNPReal GNP (1982$)CPI (U)Civil.(l)
45
19921Current year464.55.751.52.751.752.52.53.533.56.757.256.7572.1253.256.875GB5.12.13.57.21/30/19922/4-5/19922/19/19923/93 (HC)5753.36081.84838.54990.8GB3GB7.35.7097665693.14766973237.3GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
46
19922Current year56.255.25623.252.252.7533.533.577.57.257.52.53.257.375GB5.32.53.57.26/26/19926/30,7/1/19927/20/19923/93 (HC)5753.36081.84838.54990.8GB3GB7.35.7097665693.14766973237.3GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
47
19922Next year4.575.56.252.53.52.7532.542.753.256.57.256.572.87536.75GB5.833.16.76/26/19926/30,7/1/19927/20/19923/94 (HC)6194.46526.55068.35225.6GB2.7GB6.55.3612940723.1036047592.76.5GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
48
19931Current year5.256.255.562.5433.252.532.52.756.576.7573.1252.6256.875GB5.42.82.671/29/19932/2-3/19932/19/19933/94 (HC)6194.46526.55068.35225.6GB2.7GB6.55.3612940723.1036047592.76.5GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
49
19932Current year4.756.2555.7523.52.252.7533.533.256.576.756.752.53.1256.75GB4.823.36.96/30/19937/6-7/19937/20/19933/94 (HC)6194.46526.55068.35225.6GB2.7GB6.55.3612940723.1036047592.76.5GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
50
19932Next year(4)4.56.7556.523.252.53.2524.2533.56.2576.56.752.8753.256.625GB52.63.16.86/30/19937/6-7/19937/20/19933/95 (OL)6478.16897.252185433.8GB2.7GB5.66.4694895114.135684172.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
51
19941Current year4.757.55.562.53.7533.252.254336.56.756.56.753.12536.625GB5.433.36.81/31/19942/3-4/19942/22/19943/95 (OL)6478.16897.252185433.8GB2.7GB5.66.4694895114.135684172.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.(m)
52
19942Current year5.256.55.5633.533.252.53.52.75366.2566.253.1252.8756.125GB5.5336.36/30/19947/5-6/19947/20/19943/95 (OL)6478.16897.252185433.8GB2.7GB5.66.4694895114.135684172.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.
53
19942Next year4.56.2555.52.252.752.52.7524.52.753.55.756.566.252.6253.1256.125GB4.62.23.16.46/30/19947/5-6/19947/20/19944/96 (OL)70807340.46691.36776.5GB2.7GB5.63.6779661021.2732951742.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.(n)
54
19951Current year4.756.55623.25232.753.7533.55.2565.55.52.53.255.5GB4.82.22.95.41/25/19951/31,2/1/19952/21/19954/96 (OL)70807340.46691.36776.5GB2.7GB5.63.6779661021.2732951742.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.(n) (o)
55
19952Current year3.755.254.254.751.37531.5233.53.1253.3755.56.255.756.1251.753.255.9375GB4.11.7366/28/19957/5-6/19957/19/19954/96 (OL)70807340.46691.36776.5GB2.7GB5.63.6779661021.2732951742.75.6GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.(n)
56
19952Next year4.6255.54.755.3752.12532.252.752.53.52.8753.255.56.255.756.1252.53.06255.9375GB4.52.22.96.16/28/19957/5-6/19957/19/19954/97 (OL)7350.67716.16780.76993.6GB3.1GB5.34.9723832073.1397938273.15.3GDPReal GDP (1987$)CPI (U)Civil.(n)
57
19961Current year454.254.751.52.522.252.532.7535.565.55.752.1252.8755.625GB4.61.835.61/26/19961/30-31/19962/20/19964/97 (OL)7350.67716.16780.76993.6GB3.1GB5.34.9723832073.1397938273.15.3GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.(p)
58
19962Current year4.755.7555.52.532.52.7533.2533.255.255.755.55.52.6253.1255.5GB4.72.53.15.56/26/19967/2-3/19967/18/19964/97 (OL)7350.67716.16780.76993.6GB3.1GB5.34.9723832073.1397938273.15.3GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.(q)
59
19962Next year45.54.2551.52.51.752.252.53.252.7535.565.55.7522.8755.625GB4.52.23.25.56/26/19967/2-3/19967/18/19964/98 (OL)7792.98227.47017.47280GB1.9GB4.75.5755880353.7421267141.94.7GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
60
19971Current year4.255.254.54.7522.522.252.753.52.7535.255.55.255.52.1252.8755.375GB4.62.32.65.11/29/19977/4-5/19972/26/19974/98 (OL)7792.98227.47017.47280GB1.9GB4.75.5755880353.7421267141.94.7GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
61
19972Current year5655.533.533.2522.752.252.54.755.254.7553.1252.3754.875GB5.43.42.24.76/25/19977/1-2/19977/22/19974/98 (OL)7792.98227.47017.47280GB1.9GB4.75.5755880353.7421267141.94.7GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
62
19972Next year4.255.754.552322.52.532.534.55.254.7552.252.754.875GB4.32.12.84.66/25/19977/1-2/19977/22/19974/99 (OL)8254.58681.27364.67677.7GB1.5GB4.45.1693015934.251418951.54.4GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
63
19981Current year3.553.754.51.75322.751.52.51.752.254.554.754.752.37524.75GB3.41.71.64.81/28/19982/3-4/19982/24/19984/99 (OL)8254.58681.27364.67677.7GB1.5GB4.45.1693015934.251418951.54.4GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.(r)
64
19982Current year4.2554.552.753.2533.251.252.251.7524.254.54.254.53.1251.8754.375GB4.32.71.74.46/24/19986/30,7/1/19987/21/19984/99 (OL)8254.58681.27364.67677.7GB1.5GB4.45.1693015934.251418951.54.4GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
65
19982Next year45.54.2552322.51.5322.54.254.754.54.752.252.254.625GB3.722.24.96/24/19986/30,7/1/19987/21/19984/00 (OL)8947.69507.98639.59037.2GB2.6GB4.16.2620143954.6032756532.64.1GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
66
19991Current year3.75544.523.52.531.52.522.54.254.754.254.52.752.254.375GB4.12.62.34.31/28/19992/2-3/19992/23/19994/00 (OL)8947.69507.98639.59037.2GB2.6GB4.16.2620143954.6032756532.64.1GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
67
19992Current year4.755.555.53.2543.53.751.752.52.252.544.544.253.6252.3754.125GB5.23.72.34.16/23/19996/29-30/19997/22/19994/00 (OL)8947.69507.98639.59037.2GB2.6GB4.16.2620143954.6032756532.64.1GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
68
19992Next year45.254523.52.531.52.7522.544.54.254.52.752.254.375GB4.42.62.34.26/23/19996/29-30/19997/22/19994/01 (OL)9559.710114.49084.19393.7GB3.4GB45.8024833423.4081527063.44GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)CPI (U)Civil.
69
20001Current year565.255.53.254.253.53.751.52.51.75244.2544.253.6251.8754.125GB(B)64.1241/27/20002/1-2/20002/17/20004/01 (OL)9559.710114.49084.19393.7105.67108.12GB45.8024833423.4081527062.3185388474GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
70
20002Current year67.256.256.753.75544.522.752.52.7544.25444.252.6254GB(B)6.74.32.63.96/21/20006/27-28/20007/20/20004/01 (OL)9559.710114.49084.19393.7105.67108.12GB45.8024833423.4081527062.3185388474GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.(s)
71
20002Next year56.255.562.543.253.751.75322.544.544.253.52.254.125GB(B)5.53.524.16/21/20006/27-28/20007/20/20004/02 (OL)10027.910263.39303.99348.6108.37109.76MLR5.62.3474506130.48044368491.2826427985.6GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
72
20011Current year3.755.254522.7522.51.752.51.752.254.554.54.52.2524.5GB(B)3.81.81.85.21/25/20011/30-31/20002/13/20014/02 (OL)10027.910263.39303.99348.6108.37109.76MLR5.62.3474506130.48044368491.2826427985.6GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.(t)
73
20012Current year3.2553.54.25121.25222.7522.54.7554.7551.6252.254.875GB(B)3.71.525.26/20/20016/26-27/20017/18/20014/02 (OL)10027.910263.39303.99348.6108.37109.76MLR5.62.3474506130.48044368491.2826427985.6GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
74
20012Next year4.75655.533.533.251.531.752.54.755.54.755.253.1252.1255GB(B)5.33.51.75.66/20/20016/26-27/20017/18/20014/03 (OL)10152.910588.89248.89518.2109.84111.87MLR5.94.2933546082.9128103111.8481427535.9GDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
75
76
20021Current year3.55.544.523.52.53121.51.55.756.566.252.751.56.125GB4.32.71.36whoops1/29-30/20022/27/2002OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
77
20022Current year4.55.54.755.25343.53.751.2521.51.755.56.255.7563.6251.6255.875GB4.73.51.55.9whoops6/25-26/20027/16/2002OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
78
20022Next year4.5655.753.254.253.5412.251.51.75565.255.53.751.6255.375GB5.64.11.45whoops6/25-26/20027/16/2002OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
79
20031Current year4.55.54.75533.753.253.51.251.751.251.55.7565.7563.3751.3755.875GB4.83.61.36.11/22/20031/28-29/20032/11/2003OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
80
20032Current year3.54.753.754.52.2532.52.7511.751.251.566.2566.252.6251.3756.125GB4.12.91.36.16/18/20036/24-25/20037/15/2003OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
81
20032Next year4.756.55.256.253.55.253.754.750.75211.55.56.255.564.251.255.75GB6.55.30.85.46/18/20036/24-25/20037/15/2003OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
82
20041Current year5.56.55.56.2545.54.5511.511.255.255.55.255.54.751.1255.375GB6.25.315.31/21/20041/27-28/20042/11/2004OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE chain-typeCivil.
83
20042Current year676.256.7544.754.54.751.521.7525.255.55.2554.6251.8755.125GB6.74.81.75.36/23/20046/29-30/20047/20/2004OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
84
20042Next year4.756.55.2563.543.541.52.51.5255.555.253.751.755.125GB53.61.55.26/23/20046/29-30/20047/20/2004OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
85
20051Current year565.55.753.543.7541.521.51.7555.55.255.253.8751.6255.25GB5.43.91.65.31/26/20052/1-2/20052/16/2005OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
86
20051Next year55.7555.53.253.753.53.51.521.51.7555.2555.253.51.6255.125GB5.33.61.45.11/26/20052/1-2/20052/16/2005OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
87
20052Current year56.255.55.7533.753.53.51.52.251.75255.25553.51.8755GB5.93.62.15.16/22/20056/29-30/20057/20/2005OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
88
20052Next year565.255.53.253.753.253.51.52.51.75255553.3751.8755GB5.43.41.95.36/22/20056/29-30/20057/20/2005OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
89
20061Current year5.256.55.563.2543.53.51.752.5224.554.7553.524.875GB63.72.251/25/20061/31/20062/15/2006OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
90
20061Next year5655.753433.51.7521.7524.554.7553.251.8754.875GB531.85.11/25/20061/31/20062/15/2006OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
91
20062Current year5.56.566.2533.753.253.52.2532.252.54.554.7553.3752.3754.875GB6.13.32.44.96/21/20066/28-29/20067/19/2006OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
92
20062Next year4.75655.52.53.2533.2522.2522.254.255.254.7553.1252.1254.875GB52.72.25.26/21/20066/28-29/20067/19/2006OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
93
20071Current year4.755.555.52.253.252.5322.2522.254.54.754.54.752.752.1254.625GB52.32.24.81/24/20071/30-31/20072/14/2007OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
94
20071Next year4.755.555.252.53.252.7531.52.251.7524.554.54.752.8751.8754.625GB4.82.524.91/24/20071/30-31/20072/14/2007OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
95
20072Current year4.55.54.5522.752.252.522.2522.254.54.754.54.752.3752.1254.625GB4.82.224.76/20/20076/27-28/20077/18/2007OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
96
20072Next year4.55.54.7552.532.52.751.7521.7524.554.754.752.6251.8754.75GB4.82.524.86/20/20076/27-28/20077/18/2007OLGDPReal GDP (ch-wtd)PCE ex. food and energyCivil.
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Base Data and Notes (original)
Transformed Data (original)
Base - updated - VLOOKUP
GB+MLR - UNR
FRED - CPI
FRED - PCECore
FRED - PCE
FRED - GNP deflator
FRED - RGDP
FRED - RGNP
FRED - NGDP
FRED - NGNP
Base - updated - values
Transformed data - updated
new OLS-Inflation
new OLS-UNR
new OLS-RGDP
Table 1
Monetary shocks series
Transformed - updated - current
Inflation difference (new)
UNR difference (new)
RGDP difference (new)
All difference (new)
Table 2