Week 321 - Managing Risk in a Stock Portfolio
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Companies Ranked by Finance Value (Col E)TickerReward = Total Return/Yr since S&P 500 Peak on 7/19/2007Risk Aversion = Total Return/Yr during Commodities Bear Market (4/14-4/16)Finance Value = Col C + Col D5-Yr Total Return/YrDiv Yield4-Yr Div Growth5-Yr BetaP/E20-Yr CAGR (Px only)Recent Px TrendEst Loss @ -2SD2017 Barron's 500 rank2016 Barron's 500 rank2017 Best Global Brands Rank2017 Best Global Brands RankLT-Debt: Total AssetsOperating Cash Flow RatioTBV:PxDiv:FCFS&P Bond RatingS&P Stock RatingPx (50d avg)Shares BOTAmountPV of Expected Cash FlowsNPV @ 9% Discount Rate & 10-Yr Holding PeriodWACCROICDiv Achiever
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Hormel FoodsHRL16.2%35.2%51.4%21.5%2.0%18.9%0.342114.3%on trendline31%14674%94%11%90%AA+/M$33.93147$4,987.71$9,014.22$3,898.624.3%20.7%yes
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Chubb LtdCB15.6%21.0%36.6%19.0%2.0%0.5%0.881414.2%up 1SD31%187268284N.R.8%6%40%80%ANR/M$144.8035$5,068.00$8,483.94$3,285.995.1%8.8%yes
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Consolidated EdisonED11.1%25.2%36.3%10.7%3.4%2.9%-0.01199.6%up 1SD22%43941331%90%59%21%A-B+/L$82.2561$5,017.25$6,284.13$1,138.232.4%6.0%yes
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CloroxCLX11.4%23.2%34.6%17.3%4.5%4.3%0.25269.9%up 1SD28%1485830%50%-9%98%A-A/M$134.9337$4,992.41$6,152.39$1,031.973.7%31.7%yes
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WEC EnergyWEC14.7%17.8%32.5%14.8%3.3%11.2%0.022114.2%on trendline26%44146531%87%30%93%A-A/L$62.4380$4,994.40$9,249.52$4,127.062.4%5.7%yes
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UGIUGI13.4%18.4%31.8%22.4%2.0%7.4%0.661916.9%on trendline32%43841735%67%-4%87%NAB+/M$49.76100$4,976.00$10,543.81$5,440.222.8%5.9%yes
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JM SmuckerSJM11.2%18.4%29.6%9.9%2.6%9.6%0.412412.3%down 1SD27%4128728%58%-39%30%BBBA-/L$122.7041$5,030.70$7,687.22$2,527.534.0%5.7%yes
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NextEra EnergyNEE13.4%15.1%28.5%20.9%2.8%10.5%0.331714.2%up 1SD27%46830431%58%39%68%A-A/L$141.3535$4,947.25$8,886.25$3,812.153.7%7.1%yes
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Becton DickinsonBDX12.4%15.8%28.2%23.7%2.7%10.2%0.331813.1%up 2SD29%11817838%58%-13%41%BBB+A-/M$194.6026$5,059.60$7,792.15$2,602.827.1%10.0%yes
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Kimberly-ClarkKMB10.5%16.7%27.2%12.3%3.1%5.7%0.83208.7%up 1SD30%18931145%55%-3%77%AA-/L$128.0939$4,995.51$5,846.68$723.086.6%31.9%yes
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3MMMM11.3%13.3%24.6%20.1%2.4%16.6%0.952411.2%up 1SD30%20118627610433%107%0%55%AA-A+/L$207.1124$4,970.64$7,158.70$2,060.617.6%26.7%yes
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General MillsGIS10.2%14.1%24.3%11.8%3.5%6.6%0.54209.4%on trendline19%23021835%43%-28%64%BBB+A/L$55.8690$5,027.40$6,420.14$1,263.834.9%13.8%yes
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PepsiCoPEP9.2%14.4%23.6%13.3%2.7%9.1%0.7258.7%up 1SD21%257324675541%49%-10%57%A+A/L$116.1543$4,994.45$5,884.77$762.265.9%23.0%yes
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Air Products & ChemicalsAPD7.8%12.1%19.9%14.5%2.6%9.7%1.011010.7%on trendline27%29130019%82%26%44%AA-/M$144.3535$5,052.25$6,878.29$1,696.507.3%11.4%yes
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Canadian National RailwayCNI12.7%7.0%19.7%13.7%1.7%10.2%1.192118.7%down 1SD30%29919224%173%19%14%AA+/M$80.0362$4,961.86$11,955.06$6,865.977.4%16.5%yes
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Johnson & JohnsonJNJ11.3%8.1%19.4%18.1%2.5%6.2%0.68229.2%up 2SD24%207314767619%71%4%55%AAAA/L$131.8438$5,009.92$5,928.96$790.586.2%29.7%yes
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Genuine PartsGPC8.9%9.9%18.8%8.3%3.2%5.9%1.141810.1%down 1SD31%2621986%22%13%94%NAA/L$89.3656$5,004.16$6,510.04$1,377.578.8%17.3%yes
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Colgate-PalmoliveCL10.2%7.2%17.4%8.7%2.2%4.2%0.75269.5%on trendline25%6313336641652%95%-6%67%AA-A/L$74.5767$4,996.19$5,843.59$719.296.3%48.9%yes
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Abbott LaboratoriesABT9.7%6.6%16.3%12.0%2.1%17.3%1.54529.1%up 1SD26%25214034%48%-11%73%BBBB+/M$47.71105$5,009.55$6,184.61$1,046.6110.7%9.9%yes
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EcolabECL12.9%2.5%15.4%15.7%1.1%12.6%1.073113.5%on trendline24%26313130%64%-11%44%A-A/M$132.2438$5,025.12$7,870.70$2,716.737.9%10.9%yes
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Averagen = 2011.7%15.1%26.8%15.4%2.6%9.0%0.632211.9%on trendline27%25126021423029%69%5%63%AA-/L$108.70$5,006.02$7,528.76$2,394.385.8%17.1%
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BENCHMARKS
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Berkshire HathawayBRK-B9.4%6.6%16.0%16.1%0.0%0.0%0.85198.5%up 1SD24%27418728523516%93%43%no dividendAAB+/M$168.9630$5,068.80$4,719.81-$478.966.8%7.4%
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SPDR S&P 500 SPY6.9%6.6%13.5%13.9%1.9%8.5%1254.9%up 1SD32%$243.3621$5,110.56$4,187.75-$1,053.85
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iShares 7-10 Year T-BondIEF5.7%6.3%12.0%1.8%1.8%3.4%0NA5.1%down 1SD31%
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Procter & GamblePG7.2%4.5%11.7%10.2%3.0%3.5%0.56177.2%on trendline22%31227911418515%50%-5%79%AA-A/L$88.1157$5,022.27$5,211.22$60.175.2%14.8%yes
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SPDR S&P MidCap 400 MDY7.7%3.2%10.9%13.3%1.1%10.2%1.03218.5%on trendline 26%$318.4016$5,094.40$5,245.72$20.69
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UBS ETRACS Bloomberg Commodity Total ReturnDJCI-6.4%-24.2%-30.6%-11.2%0.0%0.0%0.8NA-1.3%down 2SD41%
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Averagen = 65.1%0.5%5.6%7.4%1.6%4.3%0.71215.5%on trendline29%29323320021016%72%19%79%AAA-/L$204.71$5,074.01$4,841.13-$362.996.0%11.1%
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Consumer Price Indexcpi1.7%1.2%
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Updated 8/22/2017
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