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eCommerce Meta Ads Profit Calculator
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Venture Results · ventureresults.com · Blue = your inputs | Black = calculated
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BUSINESS ECONOMICS — YOUR VARIABLE COSTS
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Average order value (AOV)$85.00e.g. 85.00
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COGS per order$5.00product cost only
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Fulfillment cost per order$5.00shipping + pick/pack
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Payment processing per order$5.00Stripe, Shopify, etc.
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Other variable costs per order$5.00
returns, inserts — optional
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GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS — REPEAT & LTV
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Repeat purchase rate (%)50.0
% of customers who buy again
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Avg. lifetime orders125.0
including first purchase, e.g. 2.4
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FORECAST INPUTS
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Monthly Meta ad spend ($)$10,000
your current or planned monthly spend
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Target profit margin (%)30.0%
what you want to keep after all costs
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RESULTS — BREAKEVEN CPA
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BREAKEVEN CPA
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$65.00
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Max you can spend per customer before the order loses money
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Contribution margin per order$65.00
revenue minus all variable costs
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Contribution margin %76.5%before ad spend
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LTV contribution margin$4,095.00
repeat-adjusted per customer
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RESULTS — TARGET CAC WINDOWS
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TargetCAC CeilingDescription
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Conservative$24.20
Healthy margin cushion — good starting point
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Ideal$39.50
Your target margin hit — optimize toward this
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Scaling$61.10
Near breakeven — acceptable when LTV justifies it
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RESULTS — MONTHLY FORECAST AT EACH TARGET
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ScenarioEst. CustomersRevenueGross ProfitAfter Ad Spend
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Conservative413$35,124$26,860$16,860
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Ideal253$21,519$16,456$6,456
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Scaling164$13,912$10,638$638
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Note: These numbers reflect reported Meta conversions only. Attribution gaps, view-through overlap, and post-iOS 14 signal loss mean actual performance may differ. The only reliable way to measure true incrementality is a holdout test.
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