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CitationCountry or RegionYear of ChangePolicyChangePresent Value Change in Household Income Per Impacted Child (5% discount rate, 2019 dollars)Impact on FertilityElasticityAny long-run fertility impact?Link
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HighMidLow
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"Fertility and child benefits," Mathilde Almlund, 2018Denmark2010Universal Child BenefitFamily benefit cap which reduced generosity for families with 3+ kids-$41,977-3% to -41%0.650.1580.048
http://conference.iza.org/conference_files/WoLabConf_2018/almlund_m6654.pdf
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"Baby Boom or Bust? Cash Transfers and Fertility: Evidence from Poland’s “Family 500+” Policy" Anna Bokun, 2021Poland2016Universal Child BenefitFamily benefit for 2nd and higher kids$17,0563% to 5%0.035714285710.028571428570.02142857143100000.15151515150.03636363636
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"Fertility effects of child benefits,"Riphahn, Regina T.; Wiynck, Frederik, 2017Germany1996Universal Child BenefitReduction of the extent of means-testing and income-contingency and change in parity differentiation$18,556-3.3% to 5%0.1230.025-0.081
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/161380/1/dp10757.pdf
275000
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"Do Financial Incentives Affect Fertility?" Alma Cohen, Rajeev Dehejia, Dmitri Romanov, 2009Israel2003Universal Child BenefitSeveral changes in generosity$6,7581.9% to 9%0.3360.1310.071
https://www.nber.org/papers/w13700
0.03636363636
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"Economic Incentives Surrounding Fertility: Evidence from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend," Nishant Yonzan, Laxman Timilsina, Inas Rashad Kelly, 2020Alaska1982Universal Basic IncomeImplementing a UBI (which included benefits paid out for children$20,1574% to 20%0.3310.1990.066Yes
https://www.nber.org/papers/w26712
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"Do pro-natalist policies reverse depopulation in Russia?" Serafima Chirkova, 2013Russia2007Universal Child BenefitGreat expansion of child benefit amount$18,4111% to 6%0.0360.0170.006
https://www.sole-jole.org/14223.pdf
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"Does Fertility Respond to Financial Incentives?" Guy Laroque and Bernard Salanie, 2008France2000Tax BenefitsStructural Model, not a discrete reform$23,0651% to 35%0.4760.2310.014
https://d-nb.info/989572366/34
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"Can countries reverse fertility decline? Evidence from France's marriage and baby bonuses, 1929-1981," Daniel L. Chen, 2010France1945Tax BenefitsIntroduction of child-specific tax deductions$11,1457 to 14%0.080.0570.04
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10797-010-9156-6?LI=true
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"Can countries reverse fertility decline? Evidence from France's marriage and baby bonuses, 1929-1981," Daniel L. Chen, 2010France1950Tax BenefitsRemoval of a childlessness tax penalty$26,7211% to 6%0.0170.0080.003
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10797-010-9156-6?LI=true
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"Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women" Wookun Kim (2021)South Korea2000-2015Baby BonusLocal child allowances$1,5002% to 4%0.66666666670.50.3333333333$1,500
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"Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," Kevin Milligan, 2005Quebec1988, 1997Baby BonusIntroducing and then repealing a baby bonus$5,1644% to 23%1.5851.1020.276
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40042947?seq=1
0.061.051.10251.1576251.215506251.2762815631.3400956411.4071004231.477455444
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"Tax incentives and fertility in Canada: quantum vs. tempo effects." Parent, D, Wang, L, 2007Quebec1988, 1997Baby BonusIntroducing and then repealing a baby bonus$5,1642% to 14%0.9650.6890.138No
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40042947?seq=1
$25,000
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"Lifetime impact of cash transfger on fertility." Kim, Young-Il Albert, 2014Quebec1988, 1997Baby BonusIntroducing and then repealing a baby bonus (all estimates for cohort)$5,164-11% to 14%0.9650.069-0.758No/Mixed
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40042947?seq=1
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"Baby Bonus, Anyone? Examing Heterogenous Responses to a Pro-Natalist Policy," Natalie Malak, MD Mahbubur Rahman, Terry Yip, 2018Quebec1988, 1997Baby BonusIntroducing and then repealing a baby bonus$5,1644% to 13%0.8960.5930.276Yes
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40042947?seq=1
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"The contribution of increases in family benefits to Australia's early 21st century fertility increase: An emperical analysis," Nick Parr, 2011Australia2004-2007Baby BonusIncrease in value$7,560No effect000
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol25/6/25-6.pdf
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"The impact of monetary incentives on general fertility rates in Western Australia," Amanda Langridge, Natasha Nassar, Jianghong Li, Peter Jacoby, Fiona Stanley, 2012Australia2004-2007Baby BonusIncrease in value$7,5603% to 13%0.7180.3870.166
https://jech.bmj.com/content/66/4/296.short
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"An economic analysis of the Australian Baby Bonus," S Sinclair, 2013Australia2004-2007Baby BonusIncrease in value$7,5602% to 10%0.5520.3310.11
http://researchbank.rmit.edu.au/view/rmit:160698
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"Did Australia's Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?" Robert Drago, Katina Sawyer, Karina M. Shreffler, Diana Warrn, Mark Wooden, 2011Australia2004-2007Baby BonusIncrease in value$7,5600.2% to 1.3%0.0720.040.011
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-010-9193-y
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"How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Libertad González and Sofia Trommlerová, 2020Spain2007, 2010Maternity PayIntroduction of a large maternity pay benefit, and then its abrupt cancellation$3,8001% to 5%0.480.290.1
https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/1153.pdf
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"Can Financial Incentives Reduce the Baby Gap? Evidence from a Reform in Maternity Leave Benefits," Anna Raute, 2017Germany2007Maternity PayIncrease in the extent of means-testing and income-contingency$1,2962.10%1.0840.8130.542Yes
https://www.nber.org/papers/w23793
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"Effects of Financial Incentives on Fertility and Early Investments in Child Health," Simona Bejenariu Tudor, 2016Romania2004Maternity PayFlattening and increase of benefits$1,5601% to 3%0.0890.0590.03
https://ermas2016.uvt.ro/en/Presenters/34_Simona_Bejenariu.pdf
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"Child-Care Availability and Fertility in Norway," Ronald Rindfuss, David Guilkey, S. Philip Morgan, Oystein Kravdal, 2010Norway1973ChildcareExpansion of childcare availability and subsidies$39,16833% to 46%0.3080.2680.221Yes
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"Can Education Subsidy Reverse Falling Fertility? The Case of Taiwan," Shao-Hsun Keng, Sheng-Jang Sheu, 2011Taiwan1996Education SubsidyEliminated inflation indexing-$750
-0.4% to -2.8%
0.7590.4070.108
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"Does welfare reform affect fertility? Evidence from the UK," Mike Brewer, Anita Ratcliffe, Sarah Smith, 2012United Kingdom1999NumerousIncreasing generosity of child allowance portion$19,3192% to 19%0.4010.190.042
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-010-0332-x
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"Monetary policy and birth rates: the effect of mortgage rate pass-through on fertility," Fergus Cumming and Lisa Dettling, 2019United Kingdom2009Housing CostsMonetary easing combined with a high rate of mortgages tied to the policy rate reduced housing costs during the Great Recession$62,9164% to 17%0.120.0640.028Yes
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2019/monetary-policy-and-birth-rates-the-effect-of-mortgage-rate-pass-through-on-fertility.pdf?la=en&hash=DC65BDCBC3E36B323DBAFEDA347133B4947A2305
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"The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O, 201318 OECD Countries1982-2007Universal Child BenefitPanel assessment of numerous countries and benefits$33,2300.7% to 3%0.0340.0180.008Yes
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4
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"The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O, 201318 OECD Countries1982-2007Maternity PayPanel assessment of numerous countries and benefits$53,4760% to 0.3%0.0020.0010Yes0.09861546142
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4
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"The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O, 201318 OECD Countries1982-2007Maternity LeavePanel assessment of numerous countries and benefits$1,145No effect000Yes0.4002819348
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4
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"The Impact of Family Policies on Fertility Trends in Developed Countries," Luci-Greulich A, Thevenon O, 201318 OECD Countries1982-2007ChildcarePanel assessment of numerous countries and benefits$48,368-0.1% to 0.5%0.0040.002-0.001Yes0.246816463
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-013-9295-4
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"Socialized Healthcare and Women's Fertility Decisions," Resul Cesur, Pinar Mine Gunes, Erdal Tekin, Aydogan Ulker, 2019Turkey2005HealthcareExpanded free access to primary and family medicinena
-1.9% to -13.2%
na
https://www.nber.org/papers/w25605
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"Is Medicaid pronatalist? The effect of eligibility expansions on abortions and births." Joyce T, Kaestner R, Kwan F, 1998United States1987 to 1991HealthcareExpansions in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant womenna1% to 6%na
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9635258
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"Pregnancy Medicaid Expansions and Fertility: Differentiating Between the Intensive and Extensive Margins," Lincoln Groves, Sarah Hamersma, Leonard Lopoo, 2018.United States1985 to 1996HealthcareExpansions in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant womenna0.5% to 5%na
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11113-018-9465-5
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"Medicaid expansions and fertility in the United States." DeLeire T, LM Lopoo, KI Simon, 2011United States1985 to 1996HealthcareExpansions in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant womennaNo effectna
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21499849
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"The effect of Medicaid eligibility expansions on fertility," Madeline Zavodny, Marianne P. Bitler, 2010United States1985 to 1996HealthcareExpansions in Medicaid eligibility for pregnant womennaNo effectna
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21499849
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"Can Health Insurance Boost Fertility? The Fertility Effect of National Health Insurance in Taiwan," Elyse Mark, Yu-hsuan Su, 2018Taiwan1995HealthcareImplementation of national health insurancenaLower fertilityna
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"Impact Evaluation of Korea's Pro-natal Policies," Lee Sanghyub, 2017South Korea2000sNumerousIncreasing benefits for childbearingnaLarger benefits and greater support for childbearing increased fertility among targeted, married women; but declining married population more than offset this impact
https://www.kihasa.re.kr/english/publications/eng_research/view.do?pageIndex=6&keyField=&key=&menuId=68&tid=34&bid=30&division=&ano=1077
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"Estimating the effects of pronatal policies on residential choice and fertility," Ryo Nakajima and Ryuichi Tanaka, 2014Japan
1990s and 2000s
NumerousStructural Model, not a discrete reformnaSome positive effects for child allowances, community supports, health checkups. Some negative effects of medical subsidies and daycare.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088915831400046X
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"Childcare availability, fertility and female labor force participation in Japan," Grace H.Y. Lee and Sing Ping Lee, 2014Japan
1990s and 2000s
ChildcareStructural Model, not a discrete reformnaIncreased childcare availability has no effect on fertility, and very little on women's labor force participation.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S088915831400015X
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"The earned income tax credit and fertility," Reagan Baughman, Stacy Dickert-Conlin, 2009United States1990s
Earned Income Tax Credit
Changing generosity of child portionnaHigher EITC benefits for families with children reduced fertility
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00148-007-0177-0
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"Stimulating fertility with monetary pro-natal policies: how effective is it? Evaluating recent Russian experiences," Oxana Sinyavskaya, 2017Russia2007-2014NumerousWide variety of pro-natal incentivesnaNo effect, possibly some effect in some subgroups
https://www.sis-aisp.it/ocs-2.3.4/index.php/popdays2017/popdays2017/paper/view/798/0
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" '… And one for the country' The effect of the baby bonus on Australian women's childbearing intentions," Leonora Risse, 2010Australia2004-2007Baby BonusIncrease in value$7,560Increase in childbearing intentions.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12546-011-9055-4
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"The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries," Claudia Olivetti and Barbara Petrongolo, 201715 OECD Countries1970-2010ChildcarePanel assessment of numerous countries and benefitsna13-19%0.18823529410.15882352940.1294117647
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.1.205
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"The Economic Consequences of Family Policies: Lessons from a Century of Legislation in High-Income Countries," Claudia Olivetti and Barbara Petrongolo, 201715 OECD Countries1970-2010Maternity PayPanel assessment of numerous countries and benefitsnaNo effect of average pay rate, small positive effect of share of leave which is paid
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.1.205
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"Children of a (Policy) Revolution: The Introduction of Universal Child Care and Its Effect on Fertility," Stefan Bauernschuster, Timo Herner, Helmut Rainer, 2015Germany2006-2010ChildcareExpansions in public childcare slots$8,9301-4%0.18823529410.15882352940.1294117647
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jeea.12158
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"Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation" Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller
Austria1988-2016ChildcareExpansions in public childcare slotsna-1% to 2.3%000
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28082
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"Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation" Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller
Austria1990Maternity PayExpansion in maternity pay on SECOND BIRTHSna0% - 0.7%00.0070.014
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28082
50
"Do Family Policies Reduce Gender Inequality? Evidence from 60 Years of Policy Experimentation" Henrik Kleven, Camille Landais, Johanna Posch, Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller
Austria1990Maternity PayExpansion in maternity pay on COMPLETED FERTILITYna0%000
https://www.nber.org/papers/w28082
51
"The impact of the bonus at birth on reproductive behaviour in a lowest-low fertility context: Friuli-Venezia Giulia (Italy), 1989-2005," Giovanna Boccuzzo, Marcantonio Caltabiano, Gianpiero Dalla Zuanna, and Marzia Loghi 2008Italy2000Baby BonusBaby bonus rising by parity, only for marrieds$3,9142-3%0.250.17857142860.1071428571
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/d90f/66e2d5a91fd02d371595cd749ae0b6525758.pdf
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The Effect of Tax-Transfer Policies on Fertility in Canada, 1921-88"" Junsen Zhang, Jason Quan and Peter van Meerbergen 1994Canada1920-1990Child AllowanceNumerous changes in benefit generosity$4,663na0.530.300.08
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Landais 2003Francetax rebate
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"The effects of child-related benefits and pensions on fertility by birth order: A test on Hungarian data" Gabos, Gal, and Kezdi (2009)Hungary1950-2006Child BenefitNumerous changes in bvenefit generositunana0.30.20.1
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/38031432_The_effects_of_child-related_benefits_and_pensions_on_fertility_by_birth_order_A_test_on_Hungarian_data
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"Childcare Cash Benefits and Fertility Timing," Aassve, A., & Lappegård, T. (2008).Norway1998Home Care BenefitImplementing a new benefit to subsidize care at home$27,619na0.72580645160.54838709680.3387096774
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-008-9158-6
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"The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe," Kalwij 2010
16 Western European countries
1965-2003Universal Child BenefitPanel study of individual exposures; utilizing 10% increase in program per Kalwij specification as the program increase, and effect on 36-40 as fertility change$2,1040.29%0.07030.04150.0127
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3000017/
57
"The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe," Kalwij 2010
16 Western European countries
1965-2003Maternity PayPanel study of individual exposures; utilizing 10% increase in program per Kalwij specification as the program increase, and effect on 36-40 as fertility change$1,2460.29%0.10170.07010.0385
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3000017/
58
"The Impact of Family Policy Expenditure on Fertility in Western Europe," Kalwij 2010
16 Western European countries
1965-2003ChildcarePanel study of individual exposures; utilizing 10% increase in program per Kalwij specification as the program increase, and effect on 36-40 as fertility change$3,2580.35%0.04650.03210.0177
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3000017/
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Hank and Kreyenfeld (2002)Germany1990sChildcareAccess to formal and informal childcarenaAccess to informal childcare is pronatal but public childcare is not
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=380783
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"Regional child care availability and fertility decisions in Spain" Baizan 2009Spain1994-2001ChildcarePanel study of individual exposuresnaHaving more kids enrolled in formal childcare is pronatal
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol21/27/default.htm
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"Evaluating how child allowances and daycaresubsidies affect fertility" Goldstein, Joshua R.; Koulovatianos, Christos; Li, Jian; Schröder, Carsten 2017US, GermanynaMultipleTheoretical model and closed-context hypothetical survey. THIS STUDY IS INSANE: suggests that a $1,200 USD childcare subsidy would increase TFR by 0.2nanananana
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/155334/1/880726970.pdf
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"Welfare state policy determinants of fertility level: A comparative analysis." Rovny, A. E. (2011). 17 OECD countries1990-1999MultiplePooled time series of policiesChildcare and leave good, strict labor rules bad
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0958928711412221?journalCode=espa
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"The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context" Pau Baizan Bruno Arpino & Carlos Eric Delclòs (2016)16 European countries1992-2009Universal Child BenefitIndividual policy exposures in hindsight, measuring impact of specific policies; assuming 10% increase as treatment$1,300-2 to 8%0.7518440770.251844-0.248155923
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-015-9356-y
64
"The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context" Pau Baizan Bruno Arpino & Carlos Eric Delclòs (2016)16 European countries1992-2009Maternity PayIndividual policy exposures in hindsight, measuring impact of specific policies; assuming 10% increase as treatmentna-1 to 2%0.1877875540.037788-0.112212446
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-015-9356-y
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"The Effect of Gender Policies on Fertility: The Moderating Role of Education and Normative Context" Pau Baizan Bruno Arpino & Carlos Eric Delclòs (2016)16 European countries1992-2009ChildcareIndividual policy exposures in hindsight, measuring impact of specific policies; assuming 10% increase as treatmentna0.2 to 0.9%0.0849356220.0549360.024935622
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10680-015-9356-y
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"Targeting fertility and female participation through the income tax." Azmat, G., & González, L. (2010). Spain2003Tax BenefitsTax benefits boosted fertility 10-20%$4,37310-20%0.98183603340.7363770250.4909180167
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0927537109001055
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"The Effects of Cash Transfer Fertility Incentives and Parental Leave Benefits on Fertility and Labor Supply: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" Ang, X.L. (2015)Quebec1986Baby BonusModest increase in fertility$5,1640.8% to 3%0.20689655170.12068965520.05517241379
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"The Effects of Cash Transfer Fertility Incentives and Parental Leave Benefits on Fertility and Labor Supply: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" Ang, X.L. (2015)Quebec2006Maternity Pay$4,68019% to 28%2.4137931032.0258620691.637931034
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