Country Scoring - Industrial Animal Agriculture

	A	B	C	D
1	In which countries do we expect interventions to prevent the further emergence of industrial animal agriculture to be most promising / cost-effective?
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3	Approach	We tried different approaches, for instance building a "real" ITN framework (following 80K's model, as this seemed like the gold standard for cause prioritisation), as well as building a weighted factor model based on different variables. We also checked approaches used by ACE and MFA for inspiration and reference. However, as we found each of these methodologies to be inadequate, we decided to build a different calculation logic, that should answer the questions: "In which countries do we expect interventions to prevent the further emergence of industrial animal agriculture to be most promising / cost-effective?" We found that for this first step of finding promising countries, there are really only three factors that are highly relevant and which should inform our decision: 1. Future Farmed Land Animal Population (how many animal lives could be impacted) 2. Farming Intensification (how strongly those lives could be impacted) 3. Incumbency of Industrial Animal Agriculture (Inverted) (how likely it is that those lives could be impacted) Combining these three factors gives us a rough expected value calculation on the impact we expect to be possible in each of the countries (number of lives * amount of impact on these lives * chance to impact these lives). We decided not to include any measure for neglectedness in this calculation, since our impression was that noone is really working on our specific issue at all, so it is neglected across the board.
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5	Variable	Future Farmed Land Animal Population	Farming Intensification	Incumbency of Industrial Animal Agriculture (Inverted)
6	Description	Number of land animals projected to be farmed in the country in 2050	Ratio of the production amount per animal per year comparing 2050 to 2012	Normalised production amount per animal per year, averaged across five categories: cattle, poultry, pigs, dairy, eggs
7	Rationale	The more animals would be farmed in a given country, the more lives we can positively impact. Unfortunately, estimates for future fish farming are not broadly available, so we have to rely on the number for land animals.	The more we expect a country to industrialise its farming operations, the more we can positively impact future animal lives.	The higher the production amount per animal, the more industrialised we can expect the country's animal agriculture to be already. And the more industrialised it is already, the harder it will be to prevent this development.
8	Unit	Number of animals	Ratio/index	Index
9	Time frame	2050	2012-2050	2021
10	Source	FAO	FAO	FAO
11	Weight	33.3%	33.3%	33.3%
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