ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTWXYZAAABACADAEAFAG
1
Key simulation outputsNotesAssumptions ->
Research intensity 2020
R&D production function params
L, K form a system that develops over time give params and H
2
Utility gain from R&D1,688,633.702.30%lambda0.75
M, N result from that system but don't feed back in
Fraction world GDP invested in R&D for intervention
3
Utility gain from giving to ppl on global average income
79,000.40Population 2020
Annual absolute increase in research intensity
phi-1.41.00E-05
4
Impact ratio21.38Impact ratio = (utility gain from R&D / utility gain from giving cash to world average income)7.90E+090.05%delta0.0001
Extra researchers in 1st year due to intervention
5
Impact ratio from code20.93861181
Population growth rate 2020-2100
Maximum research intensity
Annual discount
Recent growth rate in # researchers
3%
Total discounted utility, world 2
7.90E+04
Total discounted utility, world 1
6
% difference from code2.08%0.41%30.00%0.20%Initial A57.463717222.45E+132.45E+13
7
Quantities common to world 1 and world 2World 2: no interventionWorld 1: extra spend on R&D in year 1 due to intervention
8
Adjustments to simulation outputSimulation ->YearPopulation
Research intensity
# researchersDiscount
A (level of tech)
dA (tech progress)
Utility per person
Discounted population utility
A (level of tech)
dA (tech progress)
Utility per person
Discounted population utility
9
Convert to OP units5The "Impact ratio" calculated in simulation compares R&D to giving $ to someone on the average GWP/capita, which is ~$10k. OP units compare R&D to giving $ to someone on $50k. So the impact is 5X higher when measured in OP units.20207.90E+092.30%1.82E+08157.463717220.5387223494.0511537443.20E+1057.463717220.53889800984.0511537443.20E+10
10
Will benefits be realised all over the world?
0.720217.93E+092.35%1.86E+080.99800199870.9%58.002439570.54136398754.0604850713.21465E+1058.002615230.54136169224.06048813.21465E+10
11
Capital share0.3520227.97E+092.39%1.91E+080.996007989358.543803560.54389303334.0697752533.23E+1058.543976930.54389077844.0697782143.23E+10
12
Boost from capital accumulation1.53820238.00E+092.44%1.95E+080.994017964159.087696590.54631499054.0790227233.24E+1059.08786770.54631277564.0790256193.24E+10
13
R&D share of TFP growth0.420248.03E+092.48%2.00E+080.992031914859.634011580.54863509674.0882260753.26E+1059.634180480.54863292134.0882289083.26E+10
14
20258.07E+092.53%2.04E+080.990049833760.182646680.55085833534.097384053.27E+1060.18281340.55085619894.097386823.27E+10
15
Outputs quoted in table in R&D post.
20268.10E+092.58%2.09E+080.988071712960.733505020.55298944684.1064955233.29E+1060.73366960.55298734884.1064982333.29E+10
16
Cost-Effectiveness in OP units46.03846841The outputs in the table use a value of exactly 21, so are very slightly different.20278.13E+092.62%2.13E+080.986097544361.286494460.55503293964.11555953.30E+1061.286656950.55503087954.1155621513.30E+10
17
$20b to R&D gives same welfare as raising X ppl's income by 10%1.84E+0820288.17E+092.67%2.18E+080.984127320161.84152740.55699310164.1245751033.31E+1061.841687830.55699107874.1245776973.31E+10
18
R&D $ needed to get the same welfare benefit as raising 1 person's income by 10%108.604829220298.20E+092.71%2.23E+080.982161032462.39852050.55887400994.1335415653.33E+1062.398678910.55887202364.1335441043.33E+10
19
20308.23E+092.76%2.27E+080.980198673362.957394510.56067954134.142458223.34E+1062.957550930.56067759114.1424607053.34E+10
20
Average growth 2020-210020318.27E+092.81%2.32E+080.978240235163.518074050.56241338184.1513244963.36E+1063.518228520.56241146714.1513269283.36E+10
21
A0.7%20328.30E+092.85%2.37E+080.976285709864.080487440.56407903594.1601399093.37E+1064.080639990.56407715594.160142293.37E+10
22
GDP/capita1.15%20338.34E+092.90%2.42E+080.974335089664.644566470.56567983544.1689040563.39E+1064.644717140.56567798964.1689063873.39E+10
23
20348.37E+092.94%2.46E+080.972388366865.210246310.5672189484.1776166093.40E+1065.210395130.56721713574.1776188913.40E+10
24
20358.41E+092.99%2.51E+080.970445533565.777465260.56869938544.1862773063.41E+1065.777612270.5686976064.1862795413.41E+10
25
20368.44E+093.04%2.56E+080.968506582166.346164640.57012401124.1948859543.43E+1066.346309880.5701222644.1948881433.43E+10
26
20378.48E+093.08%2.61E+080.966571504666.916288650.5714955484.2034424153.44E+1066.916432140.57149383244.2034445593.44E+10
27
20388.51E+093.13%2.66E+080.964640293567.48778420.57281658484.2119466073.46E+1067.487925970.57281490014.2119487073.46E+10
28
20398.55E+093.17%2.71E+080.962712940968.060600790.57408958354.2203984963.47E+1068.060740870.57408792924.2204005553.47E+10
29
20408.58E+093.22%2.76E+080.960789439268.634690370.57531688564.2287980973.49E+1068.63482880.57531526114.2288001143.49E+10
30
20418.62E+093.27%2.81E+080.958869780669.210007250.57650071784.2371454663.50E+1069.210144060.57649912244.2371474423.50E+10
31
20428.65E+093.31%2.87E+080.956953957569.786507970.57764319844.2454406963.52E+1069.786643180.57764163164.2454426333.52E+10
32
20438.69E+093.36%2.92E+080.955041962270.364151170.57874634244.2536839173.53E+1070.364284820.57874480344.2536858163.53E+10
33
20448.72E+093.40%2.97E+080.953133787170.942897510.57981206674.2618752933.54E+1070.943029620.57981055514.2618771553.54E+10
34
20458.76E+093.45%3.02E+080.951229424571.522709580.58084219544.2700150163.56E+1071.522840170.58084071064.2700168423.56E+10
35
20468.80E+093.50%3.08E+080.949328866872.103551770.58183846434.2781033053.57E+1072.103680890.58183700574.2781050953.57E+10
36
20478.83E+093.54%3.13E+080.947432106572.685390240.58280252544.2861404053.59E+1072.685517890.58280109254.2861421613.59E+10
37
20488.87E+093.59%3.18E+080.945539135973.268192760.58373595124.2941265823.60E+1073.268318980.58373454344.2941283053.60E+10
38
20498.91E+093.63%3.24E+080.943649947473.851928720.58464023874.3020621253.62E+1073.852053530.58463885544.3020638153.62E+10
39
20508.94E+093.68%3.29E+080.941764533674.436568950.5855168134.3099473393.63E+1074.436692380.58551545384.3099489973.63E+10
40
20518.98E+093.73%3.35E+080.939882886875.022085770.58636703164.3177825473.64E+1075.022207840.58636569594.3177841743.64E+10
41
20529.02E+093.77%3.40E+080.938004999575.60845280.58719218684.3255680863.66E+1075.608573530.58719087414.3255696833.66E+10
42
20539.06E+093.82%3.46E+080.936130864376.195644990.58799351014.3333043093.67E+1076.195764410.58799221994.3333058763.67E+10
43
20549.09E+093.86%3.51E+080.934260473676.78363850.58877217424.3409915773.69E+1076.783756630.58877090614.3409931163.69E+10
44
20559.13E+093.91%3.57E+080.932393819977.372410670.58952929694.3486302663.70E+1077.372527530.58952805044.3486317763.70E+10
45
20569.17E+093.96%3.63E+080.930530895877.961939970.59026594324.3562207583.72E+1077.962055580.59026471774.3562222413.72E+10
46
20579.21E+094.00%3.68E+080.928671693878.552205910.59098312814.3637634473.73E+1078.55232030.59098192334.3637649033.73E+10
47
20589.25E+094.05%3.74E+080.926816206679.143189040.59168181924.3712587313.75E+1079.143302220.59168063464.3712601613.75E+10
48
20599.28E+094.09%3.80E+080.924964426579.734870860.59236293914.3787070173.76E+1079.734982860.59236177424.3787084213.76E+10
49
20609.32E+094.14%3.86E+080.923116346480.32723380.59302736734.3861087143.77E+1080.327344630.59302622174.3861100943.77E+10
50
20619.36E+094.19%3.92E+080.921271958780.920261160.59367594274.393464243.79E+1080.920370850.59367481614.3934655953.79E+10
51
20629.40E+094.23%3.98E+080.919431256181.513937110.59430946564.4007740133.80E+1081.514045670.59430835754.4007753453.80E+10
52
20639.44E+094.28%4.04E+080.917594231282.108246570.59492869924.4080384573.82E+1082.108354030.59492760924.4080397663.82E+10
53
20649.48E+094.32%4.10E+080.915760876782.703175270.59553437194.4152579963.83E+1082.703281640.59553329964.4152592823.83E+10
54
20659.52E+094.37%4.16E+080.913931185383.298709640.59612717864.4224330593.85E+1083.298814940.59612612374.4224343233.85E+10
55
20669.56E+094.42%4.22E+080.912105149583.894836820.59670778264.4295640723.86E+1083.894941060.59670674474.4295653143.86E+10
56
20679.60E+094.46%4.28E+080.910282762284.49154460.59727681724.4366514663.88E+1084.49164780.59727579594.4366526873.88E+10
57
20689.64E+094.51%4.34E+080.908464016185.088821420.59783488674.4436956693.89E+1085.08892360.59783388164.443696873.89E+10
58
20699.68E+094.55%4.41E+080.906648903885.686656310.59838256834.4506971113.90E+1085.686757480.59838157924.4506982923.90E+10
59
20709.72E+094.60%4.47E+080.90483741886.285038880.59892041334.4576562213.92E+1086.285139060.59891943974.4576573823.92E+10
60
20719.76E+094.65%4.53E+080.903029551786.883959290.59944894794.4645734273.93E+1086.88405850.59944798964.4645745693.93E+10
61
20729.80E+094.69%4.60E+080.901225297487.483408240.59996867524.4714491553.95E+1087.483506490.59996773184.4714502783.95E+10
62
20739.84E+094.74%4.66E+080.899424648188.083376910.60048007544.4782838313.96E+1088.083474220.60047914674.4782849363.96E+10
63
20749.88E+094.78%4.73E+080.897627596488.683856990.60098360774.4850778773.98E+1088.683953370.60098269344.4850789643.98E+10
64
20759.92E+094.83%4.79E+080.895834135389.28484060.60147971084.4918317153.99E+1089.284936060.60147881044.4918327853.99E+10
65
20769.96E+094.88%4.86E+080.894044257589.886320310.60196880384.4985457644.01E+1089.886414870.60196791724.4985468164.01E+10
66
20771.00E+104.92%4.92E+080.892257955990.488289110.60245128774.505220444.02E+1090.488382790.60245041454.5052214764.02E+10
67
20781.00E+104.97%4.99E+080.890475223391.09074040.60292754554.5118561574.03E+1091.09083320.60292668554.5118571764.03E+10
68
20791.01E+105.01%5.06E+080.888696052691.693667940.60339794354.5184533254.05E+1091.693759890.60339709644.5184543284.05E+10
69
20801.01E+105.06%5.12E+080.886920436792.297065890.60386283214.5250123524.06E+1092.297156990.60386199774.5250133394.06E+10
70
20811.02E+105.11%5.19E+080.885148368592.900928720.60432254644.5315336434.08E+1092.901018980.60432172444.5315346144.08E+10
71
20821.02E+105.15%5.26E+080.883379840993.505251270.60477740684.5380175984.09E+1093.505340710.60477659694.5380185554.09E+10
72
20831.03E+105.20%5.33E+080.881614846894.110028670.60522771974.5444646164.11E+1094.110117310.60522692174.5444655574.11E+10
73
20841.03E+105.24%5.40E+080.879853379194.715256390.60567377854.550875094.12E+1094.715344230.60567299224.5508760174.12E+10
74
20851.03E+105.29%5.47E+080.878095430995.320930170.60611586384.5572494114.14E+1095.321017220.60611508894.5572503244.14E+10
75
20861.04E+105.34%5.54E+080.876340995195.927046040.60655424414.5635879654.15E+1095.927132310.60655348044.5635888654.15E+10
76
20871.04E+105.38%5.61E+080.874590064696.533600280.60698917634.5698911374.17E+1096.533685790.60698842364.5698920234.17E+10
77
20881.05E+105.43%5.68E+080.872842632597.140589460.60742090644.5761593054.18E+1097.140674210.60742016444.5761601784.18E+10
78
20891.05E+105.47%5.75E+080.871098691797.748010360.60784966984.5823928444.20E+1097.748094380.60784893844.5823937044.20E+10
79
20901.06E+105.52%5.83E+080.869358235498.355860030.60827569194.5885921274.21E+1098.355943320.60827497084.5885929734.21E+10
80
20911.06E+105.57%5.90E+080.867621256598.964135720.60869918844.5947575194.22E+1098.964218290.60869847744.5947583534.22E+10
81
20921.06E+105.61%5.97E+080.865887748199.572834910.60912036584.6008893864.24E+1099.572916760.60911966484.6008902084.24E+10
82
20931.07E+105.66%6.05E+080.8641577032100.18195530.60953942214.6069880854.25E+10100.18203640.60953873094.6069888954.25E+10
83
20941.07E+105.70%6.12E+080.8624311149100.79149470.60995654664.6130539744.27E+10100.79157520.60995586494.6130547724.27E+10
84
20951.08E+105.75%6.20E+080.8607079764101.40145120.61037192074.6190874034.28E+10101.4015310.61037124844.619088194.28E+10
85
20961.08E+105.80%6.27E+080.8589882807102.01182320.61078571824.625088724.30E+10102.01190230.61078505514.6250894954.30E+10
86
20971.09E+105.84%6.35E+080.857272021102.62260890.61119810554.6310582684.31E+10102.62268730.61119745144.6310590324.31E+10
87
20981.09E+105.89%6.42E+080.8555591904103.2338070.6116092424.6369963874.33E+10103.23388480.61160859684.636997144.33E+10
88
20991.10E+105.93%6.50E+080.853849782103.84541620.61201928044.6429034114.34E+10103.84549340.61201864394.6429041544.34E+10
89
21001.10E+105.98%6.58E+080.852143789104.45743550.61242836714.6487796734.36E+10104.4575120.61242773914.6487804054.36E+10
90
21011.10E+106.03%6.63E+080.8504412045105.06986390.61093769484.6546254994.35E+10105.06993980.61093707714.6546262214.35E+10
91
21021.10E+106.07%6.68E+080.8487420219105.68080160.60946503874.6604232454.35E+10105.68087680.60946443114.6604239574.35E+10
92
21031.10E+106.12%6.73E+080.8470462342106.29026660.60801000164.6661737164.35E+10106.29034130.60800940384.6661744184.35E+10
93
21041.10E+106.16%6.78E+080.8453538347106.89827660.60657219874.6718776964.34E+10106.89835070.60657161044.6718783894.34E+10
94
21051.10E+106.21%6.83E+080.8436648166107.50484880.60515125754.6775359524.34E+10107.50492230.60515067864.6775366354.34E+10
95
21061.10E+106.26%6.88E+080.8419791732108.11000010.60374681714.6831492284.34E+10108.1100730.60374624734.6831499024.34E+10
96
21071.10E+106.30%6.93E+080.8402968977108.71374690.60235852764.6887182524.33E+10108.71381920.60235796674.6887189184.33E+10
97
21081.10E+106.35%6.98E+080.8386179833109.31610540.600986054.6942437354.33E+10109.31617720.60098549774.6942443914.33E+10
98
21091.10E+106.39%7.03E+080.8369424235109.91709150.59962905544.6997263684.33E+10109.91716270.59962851164.6997270154.33E+10
99
21101.10E+106.44%7.08E+080.8352702114110.51672050.59828722494.7051668264.32E+10110.51679120.59828668944.7051674664.32E+10
100
21111.10E+106.49%7.13E+080.8336013404111.11500770.59696024914.7105657714.32E+10111.11507790.59695972164.7105664024.32E+10