Cryonics Probabilties
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All probabilities in the jkaufman model are conditional on everything going well up to this point. See the lesswrong discussion for more information: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7sj/how_likely_is_cryonics_to_work/ . For the other models independence is mostly handwaved.
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You can spend from $90,000 up to $250,000 on a chance that it will work.0.5
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jkaufman's division9/26/20119/27/201110/23/2012 general10/23/2012 me
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You die suddenly or in a circumstance where you would not be able to be frozen in time0.10.3
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You die of something where the brain is degraded at death0.040.03(no family history of altzheimers)
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You die in a hospital that refuses access to you by the cryonics people0.020.05
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After death your relatives reject your wishes and don't let the cryonics people freeze you0.020.02(sensible relatives)
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Some law is passed that prohibits cryonics before you die0.10.1
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The cryonics people make a mistake in freezing you0.10.2
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Not all of what makes you you is encoded in the physical state of the brain0.020
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The current cryonics process is insufficient to preserve everything0.950.8
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All people die0.10
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Society falls apart0.40.1isn't this part of "all people die"? Does your model understand that these overlap?This is "society falls apart given that we didn't see all people die or any of the other problems above". See cell A2. (JK)Where did this probability come from??It's a very rough guess, like most of them (JK)
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Some time after you die cryonics is outlawed0.20.1
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All cryonics companies go out of business0.40.2I'm pretty fuzzy on this one. How did you get this estimate?It's a very rough guess, like most of them (JK)
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The cryonics company you chose goes out of business0.10.3How can this number be less than "all cryonics companies go out of business"? It is strictly more probable that one company tanks than that two or three companies tank.See cell A2. Each line is conditional on all previous lines not happening. (JK)
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Your cryonics company screws something up and you are defrosted0.050.3
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It is impossible to extract all the information preseved in the frozen brain0.050Isn't this a duplicate of "not all information is encoded in the frozen brain", "mistake in freezing", "cryonics is insufficient to preserve everything"?The information could be preserved completely correctly so that it is all still there, but it's not practical to extract it. Perhaps it requires scanning at a resolution we can't manage, or measuring very precise chemical concentrations (JK).
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The technology is never developed to extract the information0.60.5Here's another probability I don't agree with... if society is still going up until this point, molecular nanotechnology will surely get here eventually, no?Molecular nanotech may be impossible, not applicable here, banned by international convention, or not interesting enough to be developed to this point. (JK)
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No one is interested in your brain's information00.3But I'm a person! Would you say this is roughly equivalent to the probability that either humanity will not make substantial moral progress in the next, say, 500 years, or reviving the dead does not turn out to be moral?Your question seems like it's based on a sense of progress toward ideal morality that I think is probably not justified. Even if we accept the premise, if reviving the dead turns out not to be morally required (not that people now do things after being convinced they're morally required) you're still dead, and it would have been better to spend your cryonics money on other things. (JK)Why wouldn't someone be interested in a preserved century old body. If George Washington's body had been preserved til now, everyone would be insanely interested in bringing him back to life
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It is too expensive to extract your brain's information0.40.3Nanotech again should make this negligible...Nanotech may be impossible, banned, or otherwise never developed. (JK)
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Reviving people in simulation is impossible0.010.1This still leaves the (admittedly minimal) possibility that it's possible to revive a physical brain.Right. It's unlikely enough compared to the main flow that keeping the model simple seems worth it to me. (JK)
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The technology is never developed to run people in simulation0.40.4Nanotech?If we get to this point the imformation was extracted from your brain. Why would they do that if there were not technology for running people in simulation? (JK)
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Running people in simulation is outlawed0.20.4
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No one is interested running you in simulation0.30.02If we passed "someone cares about the information in your brain", shouldn't this have a lower probability?A future society that's interested in your brain's information may be able to just extract what they need, without running you in simulation. Or only runs you in simulation long enough to answer a few questions, not enough to give you the many more life years you want out of cryonics. (JK)
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It is too expensive to run you in simulation0.10.014167
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Other0.24000
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TOTAL chance of failure000.99960.997771538
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odds: 1 in1125004481493
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jeff-oldjeff-oldjeff-oldjeff-old44
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jimrandomh http://lesswrong.com/lw/7sj/how_likely_is_cryonics_to_work/4w8s
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Insurmountable technical obstacle 0.3
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Other (this list is exhaustive) 0
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Cryonics or resurrection is banned 0.05
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Society chooses to let you die or not resurrect you 0.2
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Societal collapse or human extinction 0.25
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You aren't actually frozen or your brain is badly damaged first 0.15
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Cryonics companies screw up 0.1
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You are not your brain 0.05
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TOTAL chance of failure0.71
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odds: 1 in3
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robin hanson http://www.overcomingbias.com/2009/03/break-cryonics-down.html
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Civilization still exists and has kept growing in technical capability.0.8
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Your cryonics org and it successors have kept you continuously frozen.0.8
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Someone is willing and allowed to pay modest costs to revive you.0.8
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Brain science has workable input/output models of relevant brain cell types.0.5
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Usual freezing quality preserved relevant model-needed details.0.8
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Cheap scanning tech slices & 2D scans brains at model-needed spatial, chem resolution.0.8
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Error correction codes reconstruct most connections across slices, fractures.0.8
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Cheap computers can real-time sim entire scanned sets of connected cells.0.8
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Sim life seems worth living enough that they don't prefer suicide.0.8
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Such sims of you are as worthy as your kid of your identifying with them.0.8
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TOTAL chance of failure0.9329
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odds: 1 in15
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steven harris 1989 http://www.alcor.org/Library/html/WillCryonicsWork.htmloptimisticpessimistic
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Pa is the probability that the materialistic view of life is correct, and some vital essence or soul does not leave the body after metabolism stops, thus making it impossible to ever revive a frozen person. In other words, Pa is the probability that personal identity is a purely physically-defined quantity.0.990.95
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Pb is the probability that personal identity resides in the mechanical structure of the brain, rather than a brain electrical activity pattern which would of necessity disappear during suspension, if not long before. Thus, Pb is the probability that personal identity is a purely mechanically-defined quantity. 0.990.95
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Pc is the probability of suffering clinical death in such a fashion as to have the physical control of one's brain be passed to cryonicists before one's mechanical identity patterns have been degraded to the point that a significant fraction of one's memories are gone. (Obviously Pc is zero if you don't get that paperwork in, folks). "Gone" here implies information being degraded below the level of quantum noise, where it is theoretically irrecoverable even with the ultimate "neural archaeology" robots. 0.950.75
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Pd is the probability that the cryonic suspension process does not destroy so much mechanical information in the brain as to take one down below the 50% memory line. Note that this variable is not entirely independent of Pc, since the longer one goes before suspension, the better the suspension needs to be. 0.90.5
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Pe is the probability that your brain will make it to future revival time t(r) without a mechanical accident thawing you into unfixable neural sludge. 0.990.95
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Pf is the probability that your cryonics organization will make it to revival time t(r) without suffering an internal collapse due to greed, bureaucratic incompetence, or ideological perversion. 0.60.2
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Pg is the probability that your society will make it to time t(r) intact without major social upheavals (economic collapse, nuclear war) which would force cryonics organizations out of existence even though the Earth and (ultimately society) would survive. 0.90.7
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Ph is the probability that cryogenic storage of bodies or brains will stay continuously legal until time t(r). 0.90.7
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Pi is the probability that full scale development of nanotechnology, complete with nanocomputers, replicators, and assemblers, is possible within the context of physical law. 0.980.9
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Pj is the probability that, if nanotechnology can be done, mankind will do it. 0.990.95
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Pk is the probability that mankind, your society, and your cryonics organization will survive the development of nanotechnology. 0.50.2
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Pl is the probability that the cryonic revival process will ever be inexpensive enough to be paid for by your cryonics organization or somebody else. 0.950.85
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Pm is the probability that society will permit the revival of cryonauts, once possessed of the ability to do so.0.80.5
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TOTAL chance of failure0.85140.9977
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odds: 1 in7435
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[deleted] on lesswrong: http://lesswrong.com/lw/3j/rationality_cryonics_and_pascals_wager/
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The probability that human civilization will survive into the sufficiently far future0.5
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The probability that you get cryopreserved rather than autopsied or shot in the head, and you get cooled down sufficiently quickly0.8
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The probability that cryonics preserves appropriate brain structure0.75
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The probability that you don't get destroyed whilst frozen, for example by incompetent financial management of cryonics companies0.8
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The probability that someone will revive you into a pleasant society conditional upon the above0.95
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TOTAL chance of failure0.772
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odds: 1 in4
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Vladmir Nesov on lesswrong: http://lesswrong.com/lw/8p4/2011_survey_results/5do5
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