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1 | index | title | url | scope | decision_relevance | forecasting_fit | value | |||||||||||||||||||
2 | 0 | When will China legalise same-sex marriage? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/ | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
3 | 1 | How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
4 | 2 | How many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7767/total-new-lesswrong-book-sales-by-march-2022/ | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||
5 | 3 | When will the next Palestinian election be held? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8091/date-of-next-palestinian-election/ | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
6 | 4 | On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/ | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||
7 | 5 | Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/ | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
8 | 6 | Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/ | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
9 | 7 | By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/ | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||
10 | 8 | Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
11 | 9 | Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/ | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
12 | 10 | How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
13 | 11 | How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
14 | 12 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/ | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
15 | 13 | What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
16 | 14 | When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
17 | 15 | Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/ | 4 | 4 | 4 | 64 | |||||||||||||||||||
18 | 16 | How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/ | 3 | 4 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
19 | 17 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8052/elizabeth-holmes-sentence-if-convicted/ | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
20 | 18 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
21 | 19 | What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
22 | 20 | Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
23 | 21 | Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
24 | 22 | What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
25 | 23 | Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
26 | 24 | What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/ | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||
27 | 25 | How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
28 | 26 | Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/ | 0.5 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
29 | 27 | When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
30 | 28 | Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
31 | 29 | Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/ | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
32 | 30 | What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
33 | 31 | What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/ | 5 | 3 | 4 | 60 | |||||||||||||||||||
34 | 32 | When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
35 | 33 | How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/ | 4 | 3 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
36 | 34 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
37 | 35 | Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/ | 5 | 4 | 4 | 80 | |||||||||||||||||||
38 | 36 | How many communist states will there be in 2050? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
39 | 37 | Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/ | 4 | 4 | 3 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
40 | 38 | What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/ | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
41 | 39 | By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
42 | 40 | Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/ | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
43 | 41 | By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/ | 0.5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
44 | 42 | Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/ | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
45 | 43 | Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/ | 5 | 2 | 3 | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||
46 | 44 | How much aid will the US give to Israel in FY 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8042/us-aid-to-israel-in-fy-2030/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
47 | 45 | Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/ | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
48 | 46 | How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
49 | 47 | 50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/ | 5 | 4 | 4 | 80 | |||||||||||||||||||
50 | 48 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/ | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
51 | 49 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
52 | 50 | When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/ | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
53 | 51 | By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/ | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | |||||||||||||||||||
54 | 52 | How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/ | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
55 | 53 | What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/ | 0.5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
56 | 54 | If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
57 | 55 | How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/ | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
58 | 56 | When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
59 | 57 | Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
60 | 58 | Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/ | 2 | 3 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
61 | 59 | How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/ | 2 | 3 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
62 | 60 | When will there be a mile-high building? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/ | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
63 | 61 | How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
64 | 62 | Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8003/trade-signal-metaculus-trades-make-money/ | 0.5 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
65 | 63 | If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/ | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
66 | 64 | Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
67 | 65 | When will the first human be born on another world? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
68 | 66 | When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/ | 4 | 3 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
69 | 67 | When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/ | 5 | 3 | 4 | 60 | |||||||||||||||||||
70 | 68 | What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/ | 5 | 3 | 2 | 30 | |||||||||||||||||||
71 | 69 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/ | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||
72 | 70 | Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
73 | 71 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
74 | 72 | Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/ | 4 | 2 | 3 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
75 | 73 | Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/ | 4 | 3 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
76 | 74 | What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8022/best-perplexity-on-penn-treebank-before-2025/ | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||
77 | 75 | Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/ | 4 | 3 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
78 | 76 | Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/ | 2 | 4 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
79 | 77 | Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
80 | 78 | In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/ | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
81 | 79 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/ | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |||||||||||||||||||
82 | 80 | When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/ | 2 | 2 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
83 | 81 | What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
84 | 82 | Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
85 | 83 | When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/ | 5 | 3 | 4 | 60 | |||||||||||||||||||
86 | 84 | When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
87 | 85 | What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
88 | 86 | How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
89 | 87 | What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
90 | 88 | What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/ | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16 | |||||||||||||||||||
91 | 89 | If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/ | 3 | 3 | 4 | 36 | |||||||||||||||||||
92 | 90 | Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/ | 4 | 3 | 4 | 48 | |||||||||||||||||||
93 | 91 | Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/ | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
94 | 92 | What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/ | 4 | 2 | 4 | 32 | |||||||||||||||||||
95 | 93 | Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
96 | 94 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/ | 5 | 2 | 4 | 40 | |||||||||||||||||||
97 | 95 | What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's? | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7930/space-traveler-fatality-rate-in-the-2020s/ | 0.5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||
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