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decision_relevance
forecasting_fitvalue
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0When will China legalise same-sex marriage?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3887/when-will-china-legalise-same-sex-marriage/
4040
3
1How many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5576/current-species-of-pangolin-remaining-in-2050/
42432
4
2How many of the new LessWrong book sets will be sold on Amazon by March 1st 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7767/total-new-lesswrong-book-sales-by-march-2022/
0.5436
5
3When will the next Palestinian election be held?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8091/date-of-next-palestinian-election/
2148
6
4On what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4976/on-what-day-will-solar-cycle-25s-maximum-occur/
52330
7
5Will George R. R. Martin die before the final book of A Song Of Ice And Fire is published?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1681/will-george-r-r-martin-die-before-the-final-book-of-a-song-of-ice-and-fire-is-published/
0.5040
8
6Will Scotland leave the United Kingdom before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2577/will-scotland-leave-the-united-kingdom-before-2025/
2148
9
7By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7889/ea-wiki-growth-relative-to-lw-wiki/
0.5436
10
8Will there be a deadly clash involving gunfire or explosives between Japan and China before 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8159/clash-between-japan-and-china-by-2024/
52440
11
9Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/
44348
12
10How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4518/how-many-billions-of-parameters-will-the-largest-machine-learning-model-trained-before-2030-have/
42432
13
11How many cents will it cost a typical consumer in the United States to store 10 GB of data on January 1st 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4048/how-many-cents-will-it-cost-a-typical-consumer-in-the-united-states-to-store-10-gb-of-data-on-january-1st-2025/
31412
14
12How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6298/cv-e-prints-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/
0.5040
15
13What percentage of the US federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6066/us-federal-budget-for-medicare-in-2024/
41416
16
14When will Haiti become an upper middle-income country?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2617/when-will-haiti-become-an-upper-middle-income-country/
31412
17
15Will ≥8% of U.S. adults self-report to follow a vegetarian diet before 2036?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3360/will-8-of-us-adults-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-before-2036/
44464
18
16How many years will caloric restriction be demonstrated to add to one's natural lifespan?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4094/how-many-years-will-caloric-restriction-be-demonstrated-to-add-to-ones-natural-lifespan/
34448
19
17If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8052/elizabeth-holmes-sentence-if-convicted/
0.5040
20
18Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8053/abiys-ethiopia-rule-disrupted-before-2025/
31412
21
19What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US in 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7194/us-military-expenditure-in-2022/
41416
22
20Will we detect an exoplanet atmosphere with >5% oxygen atmosphere by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1568/will-we-detect-an-exoplanet-atmosphere-with-5-oxygen-atmosphere-by-2030/
41416
23
21Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3715/before-2025-will-at-least-two-public-health-agencies-claim-that-china-deliberately-misreported-covid-19-infections/
41416
24
22What will be the peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia before 1 August 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7604/va-weekly-cli-visits-peak-before-aug-2022/
24432
25
23Will humanity use a gene drive to wipe at least one species of mosquito off the face of the Earth by 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1044/will-humanity-use-a-gene-drive-to-wipe-at-least-one-species-of-mosquito-off-the-face-of-the-earth-by-2100/
42432
26
24What will be the World's GDP at the end of 2025 in trillions of dollars?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7007/gdp-of-the-world-for-2025/
52330
27
25How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/
42432
28
26Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/
0.5030
29
27When will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/
31412
30
28Will either a space elevator or a skyhook have transported payloads in excess of 10 metric tons by the end of 2045?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3127/will-either-a-space-elevator-or-a-skyhook-have-transported-payloads-in-excess-of-10-metric-tons-by-the-end-of-2045/
42432
31
29Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/
2148
32
30What % of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4584/what--of-money-held-in-all-us-dafs-will-be-expropriated-by-2100/
24432
33
31What will be the ratio of fatalities to total estimated infections for COVID-19 by the end of 2020?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3755/what-will-be-the-ratio-of-fatalities-to-total-estimated-infections-for-covid-19-by-the-end-of-2020/
53460
34
32When will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/
42432
35
33How many publicly traded U.S.- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more on October 4th, 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3120/how-many-publicly-traded-us-or-eu-based-plant-based-meat-producers-will-be-valued-at-1bn-or-more-on-october-4th-2023/
43448
36
34Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7504/2021-cease-fire-in-tigray-war-lasts-30-days/
42432
37
35Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7453/fatality-from-nuclear-detonation-in-n-korea/
54480
38
36How many communist states will there be in 2050?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3730/how-many-communist-states-will-there-be-in-2050/
52440
39
37Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3864/out-of-the-25-largest-us-companies-by-revenue-how-many-will-file-for-bankruptcy-over-the-next-four-years/
44348
40
38What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/
32424
41
39By 31 December 2021 will General Mark Milley stop serving as the 20th Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7980/will-general-milley-leave-as-cjcos/
31412
42
40Will Bill Gates implant a brain-computer interface in anyone by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6364/bill-gates-brain-computer-interface-by-2030/
5040
43
41By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7887/ea-wiki-fraction-of-ea-forum-traffic/
0.5448
44
42Will Roger Federer win another Grand Slam title?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3071/will-roger-federer-win-another-grand-slam-title/
1040
45
43Will the first extraterrestrial life-forms we encounter be carbon-based?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3158/will-the-first-extraterrestrial-life-forms-we-encounter-be-carbon-based/
52330
46
44How much aid will the US give to Israel in FY 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8042/us-aid-to-israel-in-fy-2030/
41416
47
45Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5587/ai-ny-times-best-seller-before-2030/
32424
48
46How much will US livestock production be subsidized, on average, in over the 2021-22 period?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7067/us-livestock-subsidization-between-2021-22/
42432
49
4750 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7252/gap-between-agi-creation-and-reveal/
54480
50
48Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/
2148
51
49How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-01-01 to 2027-01-01 period?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5962/few-shot-learning-2020-12-14-to-2027-01-01/
22416
52
50When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6941/new-zealand-international-travel-reopens/
32424
53
51By 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6804/most-expensive-nft-by-2030/
2136
54
52How many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6221/patients-at-chinese-cryonics-org-by-2026/
32424
55
53What will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3384/what-will-the-largest-number-of-digits-of-%25CF%2580-to-have-been-computed-be-by-the-end-of-2025/
0.5040
56
54If Biden becomes president, will the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine be ended by 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4586/if-biden-becomes-president-will-the-sentencing-disparity-between-crack-and-powder-cocaine-be-ended-by-2024/
41416
57
55How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7665/total-medals-won-by-the-usa-at-paris-2024/
3040
58
56When will at least 1% of people in any major city or country have experienced using augmented reality outside?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7543/when-will-ar-tech-be-widely-publicly-worn/
42432
59
57Will NASA's SLS launch a person to the Moon before 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-launch-a-person-to-the-moon-before-2024/
31412
60
58Will a sample of negative energy be produced by 2100?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/600/will-a-sample-of-negative-energy-be-produced-by-2100/
23424
61
59How much money will Open Philanthropy grant towards Criminal Justice Reform in 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7429/open-phil-criminal-justice-reform-grants-2025/
23424
62
60When will there be a mile-high building?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/735/when-will-there-be-a-mile-high-building/
1040
63
61How many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6129/number-employed-in-us-manufacturing-2021/
42432
64
62Will more than half of the remaining trades in the Trade Signal tournament make money?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8003/trade-signal-metaculus-trades-make-money/
0.5448
65
63If Washington DC and Puerto Rico are not admitted as new states, will Republicans hold the Senate from 2022 to 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7165/gop-to-hold-senate-if-dc-and-pr-not-admitted/
42324
66
64Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/
42432
67
65When will the first human be born on another world?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2533/when-will-the-first-human-be-born-on-another-world/
52440
68
66When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/
43448
69
67When will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach 60 years in all countries?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2575/when-will-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-reach-60-years-in-all-countries/
53460
70
68What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5928/wti-oil-price-in-december-2021/
53230
71
69What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6182/sota-wikitext-103-2022-01-14/
2148
72
70Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5914/will-netanyahu-be-convicted-by-2022/
31412
73
71Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/
31412
74
72Will the Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to a case challenging the male-only draft as unconstitutional on the grounds of sex-discrimination by the end of 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6853/will-scotus-hear-a-male-only-draft-case/
42324
75
73Will the key to any pre-2020 WikiLeaks insurance file be publicly available by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3749/will-the-key-to-any-pre-2020-wikileaks-insurance-file-be-publicly-available-by-2030/
43448
76
74What will be the best perplexity score by a language model on the Penn Treebank (Word Level) by the end of 2024?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8022/best-perplexity-on-penn-treebank-before-2025/
32424
77
75Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7828/projected-election-winner-isnt-president-2025/
43448
78
76Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3364/will-metaculus-or-a-licensed-derivative-be-operated-as-a-public-site-by-a-publicly-traded-company-by-2030/
24432
79
77Will the European Union meet its 2030 targets under the Paris Climate Treaty?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/489/will-the-european-union-meet-its-2030-targets-under-the-paris-climate-treaty/
42432
80
78In 2031, will at least 90% of Open Philanthropy Project grant money be directed using effective altruist principles?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4677/in-2031-will-at-least-90-of-open-philanthropy-project-grant-money-be-directed-using-effective-altruist-principles/
14416
81
79How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6528/few-shot-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/
1040
82
80When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4506/when-will-the-open-philanthropy-project-have-donated-a-total-of-7-billion-of-good-ventures-money/
22416
83
81What will be the labor force participation rate (total 16 and older) in the U.S. for October 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3191/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2030/
42432
84
82Will India have a successful crewed moon landing by end of 2026?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5919/india-successful-crewed-moon-landing-by-2027/
31412
85
83When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/
53460
86
84When will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5506/mars-gdp-exceeds-earths/
52440
87
85What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/
42432
88
86How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/
42432
89
87What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/
42432
90
88What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4646/what-will-total-enrollment-for-recent-us-high-school-graduates-be-in-us-colleges-in-2021/
41416
91
89If GPT-4 is created, when will it be announced?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7401/when-will-gpt-4-be-announced/
33436
92
90Pandemic series: a devastating bioterror attack by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/255/pandemic-series-a-devastating-bioterror-attack-by-2025/
43448
93
91Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5915/will-us-aca-have-public-option-in-2021/
31412
94
92What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4390/what-will-be-the-lowest-cost-per-kilogram-in-us-dollars-to-deliver-a-payload-to-leo-or-beyond-before-2025/
42432
95
93Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7872/us-recognize-taliban-government-by-2030/
52440
96
94What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6585/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2030/
52440
97
95What will the space traveler fatality rate due to spacecraft anomalies be in the 2020's?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7930/space-traveler-fatality-rate-in-the-2020s/
0.5142
98
96When will either the Democratic or Republican party in the US cease to exist?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1481/when-will-either-the-democratic-or-republican-party-in-the-us-cease-to-exist/
43448
99
97Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/211/stage-3-trials-of-mdma-as-a-medical-treatment/
32424
100
98Will any Member State leave the Eurozone by 2025?
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2616/will-any-member-state-leave-the-eurozone-by-2025/
42432