Effect of stockouts on vaccination rates [October 2022] (public)

	A	B	C	D
1	Assumptions from New Incentives cost-effectiveness analysis
2	% of infants who would have been vaccinated without New Incentives			39%
3	Increase in vaccination rates due to New Incentives (in percentage points)			22%
4	% of infants vaccinated with incentives			61.0%
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6	Impact of directly incentivized vaccine stockouts on vaccination rates
7	Scenario: stockouts of directly incentivized vaccines on 6% of days
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9		No incentives	With incentives	Notes
10	Infants brought for a first trip to clinic (%)	40.3%	63.0%	Back-calculated from the % who get vaccinated (see above)
11	Infants who get vaccine on first trip (%)	94%	94%	Assumes 6% not vaccinated due to stockout
12	Infants brought back for second try (%)	50%	50%	We believe this assumption is conservative as preliminary, unpublished data from New Incentives has suggested this could be as high as 80+%. We assume the incentive does not affect the % who return for a second try, as an argument could be made for an effect in either direction.
13	Infants who get vaccine on the second try (%)	94%	94%	Assumes 6% not vaccinated due to stockout
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15	% of infants who get vaccinated	39.0%	61.0%
16	Increase in vaccination rates from incentives (in percentage points)		22.0%
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18	Scenario: stockouts of directly incentivized vaccines on 8.6% of days
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20		No incentives	With incentives	Notes
21	Infants brought for a first trip to clinic (%)	40.3%	63.0%	From row 10
22	Infants who get vaccine on first trip (%)	91.4%	91.4%	Assumes 8.6% not vaccinated due to stockout
23	Infants brought back for second try (%)	50%	50%	We believe this assumption is conservation as preliminary, unpublished data from New Incentives has suggested this could be as high as 80+%. We assume the incentive does not affect the % who return for a second try, as an argument could be made for an effect in either direction.
24	Infants who get vaccine on the second try (%)	91.4%	91.4%	Assumes 8.6% not vaccinated due to stockout
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26	% of infants who get vaccinated	38.4%	60.1%
27	Increase in vaccination rates from incentives (in percentage points)		21.7%
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29	Decrease in vaccine coverage due to greater stockouts (in percentage points)		0.3%
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