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Important
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This is not a prediction of the extent of deaths from Covid-19. Nor does it predict how things will evolve over the next few months
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This simply takes a national estimate of deaths and tries to allocate them across practices in England.
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The mortality risk is taken from this paper https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext#seccestitle200
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You can put the current estimate into the yellow box below and the calculations will update.
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There is more detail about the calculation and the opportunity to see my workings at https://news.gpcontract.co.uk
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England death estimate 40,000
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The estimates by practice are on the next tab
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