Copy of CATF cost-effectiveness

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1				Pessimistic	Realistic	Optimistic	Source	Notes

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3	Power Plant Campaign and “Clear the Air”: non-climate pollutants US (1996-present)
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5		Benefits (SO2 and NOx)
6		Deaths from fine particle pollution in 2004			24,000		http://www.catf.us/resources/publications/files/The_Toll_from_Coal.pdf	CATF's figures are roughly consistent with the EPA's own figures, and may be pessimistic. See 'The Toll from Coal' p. 7. See also p. 14 of https://archive.epa.gov/airmarkets/programs/cair/web/pdf/cair_final_presentation.pdf We lack a confidence interval for this estimate, so only include the realistic estimate
7		Deaths from fine particle pollution in 2010			13,200		http://www.catf.us/resources/publications/files/The_Toll_from_Coal.pdf
8		Average annual reduction in deaths relative to 2004 (2004-10)			5,400		calc	We lack data on total mortality reduction (2004-10), so take the annual average reduction, assuming a linear decline in deaths.
9		CATF brought regulation forward by (years)		0.75	1.50	4.00	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
10		Natural gas price impact adjustment		0.60	0.84	0.89	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
11		Total SO2 and NOx benefits (deaths averted)		2,430	6,804	12,960	calc
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13		Benefits (Mercury)
14		Average annual reduction in deaths due to Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (2015-2020)		4,200	7,600	11,000	https://www.epa.gov/mats/healthier-americans
15		CATF brought regulation forward by (years)		0.75	1.50	4.00	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
16		Total mercury benefits brought about by CATF (deaths averted)		3,150	11,400	44,000	calc
17		Total SO2+NOx+Mercury benefits (deaths averted)		5,580	18,204	56,960	calc
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19		Benefits (CO2)
20		Average annual retirements in coal capacity due to CATF-supported regulations, 2010-2015 (GW)		1	4	7	http://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/default/files/BPC%20Electric%20System%20Reliability.pdf (p. 22)	The Bipartisan Policy Center report provides an overview of the estimates of the effect of various EPA regulations on coal retirements in the US. The impact of each regulation is not clear. The figures provided represent our best guess of the scale of the contribution provided by the relevant regulations.
21		Coal capacity factor			0.6		https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_6_07_a
22		Annual coal generation averted (TWh)		5.256	21.024	36.792	Calc	We multiply capacity by average annual capacity factor to get average annual capacity over a year. We multiply this by the number of hours in a year to get annual power production in GWh. We divide by 1,000 to convert to TWh.
23		CATF brought regulation forward by (years)		0.75	1.50	4.00	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
24		Total coal generation averted by CATF (TWh)		3.942	31.536	147.168	Calc
25		Expected effect on emissions						Assume it is replaced by gas. This makes the analysis pessimistic because coal could be replaced by low carbon energy
26			Coal power emissions factor (megatonnes of CO2e per TWh)	0.82	0.82	0.82	IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change: Working Group III: p. 1335	1 megatonne = 1 million tonnes
27			Coal emissions averted (tonnes CO2e)	3,232,440	25,859,520	120,677,760	calc
28			Increase in gas produced energy (TWh)	3.942	31.536	147.168	feed
29			Gas power emissions factor (megatonnes of CO2e per TWh)	0.49	0.49	0.49	IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change: p. 1335
30			Additional gas emissions (tonnes CO2e)	1,931,580	15,452,640	72,112,320	calc
31			Tonnes of CO2e averted	1,300,860	10,406,880	48,565,440	calc
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33	Methane Partners Campaign (2009-present)
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35		Benefits
36		Annual tonnes of CO2e averted by 2012 EPA New Source Performance Standard (2012-17)		19,000,000	26,000,000	33,000,000	https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/natural_gas_transmission_fact_sheet_2012.pdf (p. 2)	These are the benefits once the rules are fully implemented in 2015. Adjustment for this below.
37		Adjustment for rules not being fully implemented prior to 2015		0.80	0.90	0.95	Subjective input	The rule is fully implemented for three of the five years, suggesting that the downward adjustment should be fairly small.
38		CATF brought 2012 regulation forward by (years)		0.25	0.92	1.83
39		CATF impact via 2012 reg (tonnes CO2e)		3,800,000.00	21,448,440.00	57,370,500.00
40		Annual tonnes of CO2e averted by 2016 reg in 2025			11,000,000		https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/nsps-overview-fs.pdf (p. 4)
41		Benefit adjustment for fullly effective rule (2016-25)		0.5	0.6	0.7	Subjective input	To calculate CATF's impact, it is more accurate to calculate the average annual effect of the rule, rather than at its peak. It is therefore reasonable to adjust the peak figure downwards. Since it take nine years for the rule to have peak effect, the adjustment should be greater than for the 2012 NSPS.
42		CATF counterfactual impact on 2016 rule (years)		2	3	5.5	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
43		CATF impact via 2016 reg (tonnes CO2e)		11,000,000	19,800,000	42,350,000	Calc
44		Tonnes of CO2e averted		14,800,000	41,248,440	99,720,500	Calc
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46	CATF CCS work (2000-present)
47	Research and advocacy for tax credit for CCS carbon utilization under active consideration in US Congress, along with Master Limited Partnerships and Private Activity Bonds. The FUTURES Act
48		Benefits
49		Emissions averted by CCS Bill in 2020 (tonnes of CO2)		0	0	0	Analysis by Charles River Associates for Clean Air Task Force, 2016 (confidential)	Dept of Energy NEMS model came up with similar results
50		Emissions averted by CCS bill in 2025 (tonnes of CO2)		40,000,000	40,000,000	40,000,000	Analysis by Charles River Associates for Clean Air Task Force, 2016 (confidential)	Dept of Energy NEMS model came up with similar results
51		Average annual emissions averted by CCS bill, 2020-25 (tonnes of CO2)		20,000,000	20,000,000	20,000,000	calc
52		CATF brought legislation forward by (years)		0.7	1.5	3	Subjective input See CATF past impact appendix
53		Total impact-adjusted benefits brought about by CATF work on CCS bill (tonnes of CO2e)		14,000,000	30,000,000	60,000,000	Calc
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55	Cost-effectiveness of case studies
56	Costs
57		Average annual budget (1996-2017)			$7,000,000.00		Input CATF, personal correspondence
58		Costs incurred (1996-present)			$147,000,000.00		Calc
59	Benefits
60		Total deaths averted		5,580	18,204	56,960	Calc	In some case studies, the deaths have not yet been averted, but are expected to be in the future.
61		Total emissions averted		30,100,860	81,655,320	208,285,940	Calc	In some case studies, the tonnes of CO2e have not yet been averted, but are expected to be in the future.
62		Percentage of CATF impact accounted for by 3 case studies		0.9	0.7	0.5	Subjective input	This is highly uncertain
63		Adjusted deaths averted		6200	26006	113920	Calc
64		Adjusted emissions averted		33,445,400	116,650,457	416,571,880	Calc
65	Cost-effectiveness
66		Cost per death averted		$23,709.68	$5,652.60	$1,290.38	Calc
67		Expected deaths averted per $100,000		4.22	17.69	77.50	Calc
68		Cost per tonne of CO2e averted		$4.40	$1.26	$0.35	Calc
69		Tonnes of CO2e averted per $100		22.75	79.35	283.38	Calc
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