Fermi estimates for cost-effectiveness of research etc.
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ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
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EstimatorOwen CB[add yourself!]
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Economic fusion power
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R(0) = Current annual resources (in $b)5
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B = Annual benefit of solution (in $b)1000
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y/z = Multiple of total resources needed for p=50% chance of success
100
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Expected benefit/cost (in $/$)21.7
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Stopping/reversing cell ageing
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R(0) = Current annual resources (in $m)1000
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B = Annual benefit of solution (QALYs)250000000
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y/z = Multiple of total resources needed for p=20% chance of success
300
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Expected benefit/cost (in QALYs/$m)8766.1
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Lobbying for open borders
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R(0) = current annual resources (in $b)5
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B = Annual benefit of solution (in $b)3000
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y/z = Multilple of total resources needed for p=30% chance of success
400
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Expected benefit/cost (in $/$)30.0
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Self driving cars
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R(0) in $b0.5
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B in $b200
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y/z for p = 80%10
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Expected benefit/cost (in $/$)139.0
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[add more problems!]
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