Monte Carlo Example_SalesForecast.xls

	A	B	D	F	G	I	J
1	Monte Carlo Simulation Example
2	See the Monte Carlo Simulation article on Vertex42.com						© 2004 Vertex42 LLC
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6	Sales Forecast Model
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9		Input Values (input)
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11			Nominal	Min	Max	Stochastic
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13		Leads per Month (L)	1500	1200	1800	1286.263568
14		Cost Per Lead (C)	$0.50	$0.20	$0.80	$0.60
15		Conversion Rate (R)	3.0%	1.0%	5.0%	2.444%
16		Profit per Sale (P)	$50.00	$47.00	$53.00	$51.92
17		Overhead per Month (H)	$800.00
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20		Results (calculations)
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22			Deterministic			Stochastic
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24		Monthly Income:	$2,250.00			$1,632.02
25		Monthly Expenses:	$1,550.00			$1,568.92
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27		Projected Monthly Profit:	$700.00			$63.10
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33	Monte Carlo Simulation (Summary Report)					See MCsim Worksheet
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36		Summary Statistics			Quartiles
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38		Sample Size (n):	5000		Min:	-$1,187.64
39					Q(0.25):	-$46.06
40		MEAN:	$700.21		Median:	$685.15
41		STDEV:	$932.18		Q(0.75):	$1,411.12
42		Mean Standard Error:	$13.18		Max:	$3,296.60
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46					90% Central Interval
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48					Q(0.05):	-$758.94
49					Q(0.95):	$2,236.39
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52					95% Central Interval
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54					Q(0.025):	-$917.17
55					Q(0.975):	$2,487.17
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58					Prob(Profit > 0)
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60					Pr(y > 0):	73.5%
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