ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZAAABACADAEAFAGAH
1
2
vs Buff
@ Ore. St.
vs. MTSUvs. MD
@ Purdue
vs. MSUvs. ILL@ Iowa@ Michvs. NEB@ NWvs. WI
Read more about the model here:
3
Bill Connelly's S&P+94.0%46.0%79.0%68.0%69.0%54.0%77.0%44.0%15.0%53.0%39.0%25.0%
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/2014/12/11/7377487/college-football-ratings-fplus-spplus
4
ESPN FPI89.5%29.6%76.0%66.7%61.8%52.8%74.5%23.8%9.8%49.4%17.0%12.2%
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/128576/breaking-down-fpis-performance-in-2016
5
Implied win % (Vegas spread)
100.0%79.3%79.9%61.9%85.0%42.6%34.9%22.6%
https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/
6
Spread (via 5Dimes as of 8/1)
-26.5-10.5-11-4-13.5+3+5.5+10
7
8
Average win %95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%30%20%
9
^^ USED IN MODEL BELOW
10
11
Likehood of winning exactly X games:
12
00.0%
13
10.0%
14
20.4%
15
32.2%
16
47.8%
17
517.5%
Likelihood of 6 - 6 or better:
72.1%
18
625.5%
Likelihood of 7 - 5 or better:
46.7%
19
724.2%
Likelihood of 8 - 4 or better:
22.4%
20
815.0%
Likelihood of 9 - 3 or better:
7.4%
21
95.9%
22
101.4%
23
110.2%
24
120.0%
25
Grand Total100.0%
26
27
Game #123456789101112
28
Sequence ///// Odds:95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%30%20%% ChanceWins
29
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,WWWWWWWWWWWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%30%20%0.00868%12
30
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,LWWWWWWWWWWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%30%80%0.03485%11
31
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,WWWWWWWWWWWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%70%20%0.01996%11
32
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,LWWWWWWWWWWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%51%70%80%0.08017%10
33
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,WWWWWWWWWWLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%49%30%20%0.00827%11
34
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,LWWWWWWWWWLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%49%30%80%0.03322%10
35
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,WWWWWWWWWWLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%49%70%20%0.01902%10
36
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,LWWWWWWWWWLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%12%49%70%80%0.07641%9
37
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,WWWWWWWWWLWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%51%30%20%0.06129%11
38
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,LWWWWWWWWLWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%51%30%80%0.24620%10
39
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,WWWWWWWWWLWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%51%70%20%0.14099%10
40
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,LWWWWWWWWLWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%51%70%80%0.56633%9
41
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,WWWWWWWWWLLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%49%30%20%0.05842%10
42
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,LWWWWWWWWLLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%49%30%80%0.23466%9
43
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,WWWWWWWWWLLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%49%70%20%0.13438%9
44
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,LWWWWWWWWLLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%37%88%49%70%80%0.53979%8
45
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,WWWWWWWWLWWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%51%30%20%0.01490%11
46
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,LWWWWWWWLWWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%51%30%80%0.05985%10
47
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,WWWWWWWWLWWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%51%70%20%0.03428%10
48
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,LWWWWWWWLWWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%51%70%80%0.13768%9
49
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,WWWWWWWWLWLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%49%30%20%0.01420%10
50
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,LWWWWWWWLWLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%49%30%80%0.05705%9
51
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,WWWWWWWWLWLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%49%70%20%0.03267%9
52
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,LWWWWWWWLWLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%12%49%70%80%0.13122%8
53
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,WWWWWWWWLLWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%51%30%20%0.10526%10
54
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,LWWWWWWWLLWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%51%30%80%0.42281%9
55
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,WWWWWWWWLLWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%51%70%20%0.24214%9
56
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,LWWWWWWWLLWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%51%70%80%0.97261%8
57
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,WWWWWWWWLLLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%49%30%20%0.10033%9
58
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,LWWWWWWWLLLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%49%30%80%0.40300%8
59
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,WWWWWWWWLLLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%49%70%20%0.23079%8
60
W,W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,LWWWWWWWLLLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%79%63%88%49%70%80%0.92702%7
61
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,WWWWWWWLWWWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%51%30%20%0.00233%11
62
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,LWWWWWWLWWWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%51%30%80%0.00936%10
63
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,WWWWWWWLWWWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%51%70%20%0.00536%10
64
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,LWWWWWWLWWWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%51%70%80%0.02152%9
65
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W,WWWWWWWLWWLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%49%30%20%0.00222%10
66
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W,LWWWWWWLWWLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%49%30%80%0.00892%9
67
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,L,WWWWWWWLWWLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%49%70%20%0.00511%9
68
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,L,LWWWWWWLWWLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%12%49%70%80%0.02052%8
69
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,W,WWWWWWWLWLWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%51%30%20%0.01646%10
70
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,W,LWWWWWWLWLWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%51%30%80%0.06610%9
71
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,L,WWWWWWWLWLWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%51%70%20%0.03786%9
72
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,W,L,LWWWWWWLWLWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%51%70%80%0.15206%8
73
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,W,WWWWWWWLWLLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%49%30%20%0.01569%9
74
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,W,LWWWWWWLWLLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%49%30%80%0.06300%8
75
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,L,WWWWWWWLWLLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%49%70%20%0.03608%8
76
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,W,L,L,L,LWWWWWWLWLLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%37%88%49%70%80%0.14493%7
77
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,WWWWWWWLLWWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%51%30%20%0.00400%10
78
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,W,LWWWWWWLLWWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%51%30%80%0.01607%9
79
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,L,WWWWWWWLLWWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%51%70%20%0.00920%9
80
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,W,L,LWWWWWWLLWWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%51%70%80%0.03697%8
81
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,W,WWWWWWWLLWLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%49%30%20%0.00381%9
82
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,W,LWWWWWWLLWLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%49%30%80%0.01532%8
83
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,L,WWWWWWWLLWLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%49%70%20%0.00877%8
84
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,W,L,L,LWWWWWWLLWLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%12%49%70%80%0.03523%7
85
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,W,WWWWWWWLLLWWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%51%30%20%0.02826%9
86
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,W,LWWWWWWLLLWWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%51%30%80%0.11353%8
87
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,L,WWWWWWWLLLWLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%51%70%20%0.06501%8
88
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,W,L,LWWWWWWLLLWLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%51%70%80%0.26115%7
89
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,W,WWWWWWWLLLLWW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%49%30%20%0.02694%8
90
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,W,LWWWWWWLLLLWL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%49%30%80%0.10820%7
91
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,L,WWWWWWWLLLLLW95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%49%70%20%0.06197%7
92
W,W,W,W,W,W,L,L,L,L,L,LWWWWWWLLLLLL95%38%78%71%70%56%21%63%88%49%70%80%0.24890%6
93
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,W,WWWWWWLWWWWWW95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%51%30%20%0.00675%11
94
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,W,LWWWWWLWWWWWL95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%51%30%80%0.02712%10
95
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,WWWWWWLWWWWLW95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%51%70%20%0.01553%10
96
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,W,L,LWWWWWLWWWWLL95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%51%70%80%0.06239%9
97
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,WWWWWWLWWWLWW95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%49%30%20%0.00644%10
98
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,W,LWWWWWLWWWLWL95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%49%30%80%0.02585%9
99
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,L,WWWWWWLWWWLLW95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%49%70%20%0.01481%9
100
W,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,W,L,L,LWWWWWLWWWLLL95%38%78%71%70%44%79%37%12%49%70%80%0.05947%8