Estimation of Economic Impact of COVID-19 on Live Performance Domain
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Loss in ticketing revenues (x 1,000)
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AnnualWeekly
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Admissions to live performing arts performances in 2017 [MPS71A002]
Total supply at purchasers' prices
$3,793,813$72,958
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Taxes on product$205,761$3,957
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Total supply at basic prices$3,588,052$69,001
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Estimated admissions in 2018 (for comparison with annual surveys of service industries)
Total supply at purchasers' prices
$3,837,076$73,790
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Taxes on product$208,107$4,002
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Total supply at basic prices$3,628,968$69,788
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Estimated admissions in 2020 (before COVID-19 crisis)
Total supply at purchasers' prices
$3,945,299$75,871
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Taxes on product$213,977$4,115
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Total supply at basic prices$3,731,322$71,756$559,698
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Hypothetical impact of COVID-19 while all live performances are cancelled-90%
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Estimated weekly loss in admissions revenues
Total supply at purchasers' prices
-$68,284
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Taxes on product-$3,703
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Total supply at basic prices-$64,581
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Source for admissions:
Statistics Canada. Table 36-10-0478-01 Supply and use tables, detail level, provincial and territorial (x 1,000)
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Source for CPI:See last tab
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About the Live Performance domain
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The Live Performance domain include all performing arts and festival activities.
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According to the Conceptual Framework for Cultural Statistics, the live performance domain “includes live performances of theatre, dance, opera, musical theatre, orchestras, music groups and artists, circuses, puppetry, and multidisciplinary events such as celebrations and festivals. The domain includes promoters and presenters involved with live performances, as well as the physical infrastructure used to house these events where these are facilities dedicated to live performance such as theatres or concert halls.”
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Notes about this estimation:
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- Of all possible economic indicators, admission revenues is probably the one for which we can make the most reliable estimation. Theoretically, no event held = no tickets sold. The reality is however a little more nuanced (see below). This being said, the loss in admissions revenues is still a simpler, more accurate estimation of the impact of COVID-19 than output or GDP.
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- Even though all live performances are cancelled across Canada up until at least April, it would be inaccurate to assume that revenues from ticket sales are nul. Many ticket holders have chosen not request refunds or have donated the value of their ticket to the presenting organization. Therefore, cancelled performance during the period from March 13th to April 2nd have still generated admissions revenues prior to the crisis.
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- If the crisis lasts several months, revenues from donated tickets would be likely to decrease and to tend to 0, because new tickets aren't being sold during the height of the crisis.
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- An impact on ticket sales will also be felt when performances resume. Even when risks are deemed lower by public health authorities - and live performance are allowed to resume - we can anticipate that a "chill" effect will persist. Many Canadians will continue to be afraid of contagion and will prefer to avoid public gatherings. It's impossible to estimate how prevalent this chill effect will be and how long it will last. However, even a 5% chill effect would mean a loss of $15 million per month.
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- No seasonal adjustment was made
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Estimated by: Frédéric Julien, March 19, 2020
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(with thanks to Kelly Hill, from Hill Strategies Research, for pointing out this particular statistical table)
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