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PredictionConfidence1-xTrue (1/0)Points
Inv Points
SourceNotes
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1. Star Wars Episode VIII will set a new box office record. 90%90%10%000https://www.digitaltrends.com/movies/star-wars-the-last-jedi-box-office/
2nd place for opening weekend
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2. Moonlight will win Best Picture 60%60%40%10.60.4
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3. Rouge One will win a Technical Oscar 55%55%45%000
5
4. Jon Snow, Daenerys and Cersei Lannister will be alive at the end of the upcoming Game of Thrones season 55%
55%45%10.550.45
6
5. 2016 sucked jokes will stop being funny after Jan 20th 95%95%5%10.950.05
Were they ever funny?
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6. At least one Trump cabinet pick will not be confirmed 70%70%30%10.70.3https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_Donald_Trump
Puzder for Labor withdrew
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6. A) Contingent on #6 the reason will be close ties to Russia 80%80%20%000
Puzder had unemployed housekeeper
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7. Trump’s pick to replace Justice Scalia will be confirmed 90%90%10%10.90.1
10
8. There will not be a second SCOTUS vacancy 80%80%20%10.80.2
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9. Trump will have a major (defined as dominating the media for a period greater than 7 days or a drop of 5 percentage points in approval rating) scandal within 3 months of taking office 80%
80%20%10.80.2
I'm assuming the confirmation lie counts?
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10. Trump will have a scandal involving his business interests and the emoluments clause within 6 months 90%
90%10%10.90.1https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/opinion/trumps-scandals-a-list.html
Gov officials staying in Trump hotels
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11. There will be one serious call by the democrats for impeachment within 6 months 60%
60%40%000
There have been articles tabled but they generally are by backbenchers
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11. A) Contingent on #11 House Republicans will vote down such measures 80%
80%20%000
15
12. Democrats will succumb to infighting rather than present a united front against Trump 60%
60%40%000
Would strongly disagree
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13. A secession movement in the pacific states will not reach or surpass 10% popular support 90%
90%10%000
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-california-secession/more-californians-dreaming-of-a-country-without-trump-poll-idUSKBN1572KB
32% support for "Calexit" in Dec-Jan poll
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14. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first 3 months of the Trump administration 50%
50%50%000
Open to examples
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15. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first 6 months of the Trump administration 65%
65%35%10.650.35
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/22/politics/donald-trump-north-korea-insults-timeline/index.html
I think the first war of words with NK started in July
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16. There will be a major diplomatic incident in the first year of the Trump administration 80%
80%20%10.80.2
Let's count North Korea
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17. Relations between Trump and House/Senate Republicans will sour 60%
60%40%10.60.4
Literally anything Trump says about McConnell
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18. Relations between Trump and House/Senate Republicans will not sour to the point where the GOP congressmen vote to impeach 85%
85%15%10.850.15
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19. Trump will not develop a serious health problem 80%80%20%10.80.2
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20. Mike Pence will not become the 46th President 90%90%10%10.90.1
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21. Trump will attempt to renegotiate NAFTA 80%80%20%10.80.2
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22. The US-Canada trade relationship will not significantly change 60%
60%40%10.60.4
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23. Trudeau’s popularity will drop below that of 19 Oct 2015 70%00
What the hell was his popularity in Oct 2015??
Use final poll of the campaign or the vote itself
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24. No legislation to enact electoral reform or initiate a referendum on the matter will be passed by parliament 70%
70%30%10.70.3
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25. There will be changes to Canadian federal political finance laws 70%
70%30%000
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26. The 2017 Federal budget will have a larger deficit than the 2016 budget projected 55%
55%45%10.550.45
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27. Kinder Morgan gets stalled in court and no significant construction takes place 80%
80%20%10.80.2
Was it more stalled by courts or low oil prices?
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28. There will be a federal cabinet shuffle 80%80%20%10.80.2
Not a big one but sure
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28. A) Contingent on #28 Maryam Monsef will be removed from cabinet 90%
90%10%000
She got shuffled, not removed
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29. Nathan Cullen will become the NDP Leader 55%55%45%000
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30. NDP does not adopt the LEAP Manifesto 55%55%45%10.550.45
I mean, they never were going to
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31. CPC Leadership is too uncertain but rough odds are: Andrew Scheer 40%, Maxime Bernier 30%, Michael Chong 30%
30%70%10.30.7
You pegged 2/3s of this order
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32. Kevin O’Leary does not enter the CPC leadership race 60%60%40%000
He did enter. He did leave
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33. Christy Clark will win reelection 60%60%40%000
Technically she won her seat, the most votes and the most seats...
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34. The BC Green Party will increase its seat count 60%60%40%10.60.4
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35. Kathleen Wynne does not resign 60%60%40%10.60.4
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36. Britain does not invoke Article 50 60%60%40%000
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37. Angela Merkel remains Chancellor of Germany 70%70%30%10.70.3Barely
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38. No other EU country will announce plans to leave 70%70%30%10.70.3
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39. Far Right/Alt Right does better than expected in at least on European election 60%
60%40%10.60.4Germany
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40. China does not have political turmoil on par with or surpassing Tiananmen Square 90%
90%10%10.90.1
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41. North Korea’s regime will remain in place. 90%90%10%10.90.1
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42. Assad remains President of Syria 95%95%5%10.950.05
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43. ISIS remains a functioning organization 85%85%15%000
I'd argue it's not functioning. Iran, Russia and Iraq have all said it's been defeated
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44. ISIS losses territory 80%80%20%10.80.2
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45. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in the USA 95%
95%5%10.950.05https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_terrorist_incidents_in_2017
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46. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in Canada 95%
95%5%10.950.05
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47. There will be no terror attack with >100 casualties in EU 80%80%20%10.80.2
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48. No major intifada in Israel this year ( >250 Israeli deaths) 80%80%20%10.80.2
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49. No major Israeli military operation against its neighbors (>500 casualties) 80%
80%20%10.80.2
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50. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 55%
55%45%10.550.45
55
51. No major war (>100 military casualties) in Asia 90%90%10%10.90.1https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
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52. Canadian Forces does not deploy a battle group size force to a new theatre 55%
55%45%000
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/canadian-led-battlegroup-in-latvia-certified-as-combat-effective
Does Latvia count?
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53. Canadian Forces deploys a force smaller than a battle group to a new theatre 60%
60%40%10.60.4http://www.forces.gc.ca/en/operations/update.page
Can we count CARIBBE or IMPACT?
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54. There will be a cyber-attack attributed (but not confirmed) to a state actor on a NATO country 70%
70%30%10.70.3https://www.wired.com/story/2017-biggest-hacks-so-far/
Trump is literally blaming "WannaCry" on North Korea today
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55. Global extreme poverty will decrease 90%90%10%000http://blogs.worldbank.org/developmenttalk/2017-global-poverty-update-world-bank
It looks like it went up by 2.5M from 2016-17, although percent declined
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56. Average global life expectancy will increase 90%00
I'm not sure we have data on this
61
57. Vancouver Housing prices will drop 60%60%40%000
http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-reports/pdf/canadian-housing/housespecial-index.pdf
BAHAHAHAHAHAHA - 14% Y/Y change
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58. House Prices will not drop >20% 70%70%30%000ibid
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59. Broadway subway to UBC will receive funding 55%55%45%10.550.45
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-government-to-match-federal-funding-for-broadway-skytrain-extension-surrey-lrt-1.4049350
Feds & provincial announcements
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60. Vancouver implements congestion pricing 55%55%45%000Ha
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61. There will be no major changes to Vancouver land use policy 90%90%10%10.90.1
The Housing Reset comes the closest we'll see but is still interim
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62. Massey Tunnel replacement will face at least one delay 65%65%35%10.650.35I'd say so!
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63. Queen Elizabeth will pass away 55%55%45%000
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64. A Republican movement does not gain traction in Canada 90%90%10%10.90.1
https://globalnews.ca/news/3559289/how-canada-could-break-up-with-the-monarchy/
I'd have to reach to say these polls suggest any broad traction
69
65. The Alt Right does not gain a foothold in Canada, defined as an affiliated party gaining a seat or a candidate winning a leadership race in an established party at any level 90%
90%10%000
There's a misunderstanding of what the "alt right" is in here, I think. There aren't really alt right candidates, merely that it's more a common language for racists/misogynists/etc. I'd say the language has gained a foothold within the number of Rebel influencers still within the Conservative Party but it's not well established yet
70
66. S&P 500 will close lower at the end of 2017 than 2016 (2,238.83) 55%
55%45%000
It's literally at the highest it's ever been
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67. Oil will closer higher at the end of 2017 than 2016 (WTI Crude $53.72) 70%
70%30%10.70.3http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti$58
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68. US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates 70%70%30%10.70.3
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed/fed-raises-interest-rates-keeps-2018-policy-outlook-unchanged-idUSKBN1E70IX
You barely made this one
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69. Bank of Canada will raise interest rate 60%60%40%10.60.4
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canada-holds-interest-rate-at-1-repeats-concerns-over-souring-nafta-talks
A couple hikes early in the year
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70. Canadian GDP will grow less than 2.1% 55%55%45%10.550.45ibidGrowth <2%
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71. Canada’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 80%00
I don't think we have data for this yet
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72. America’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 60%00Ibid
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73. Alberta’s per capita carbon emissions will fall 60%00Ibid
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74. Tesla will announce a delay for the model 3 60%60%40%10.60.4
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/31/technology/tesla-shareholder-suit-model-3/index.html
The low production numbers counts I think, plus labour unrest
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75. SpaceX will successfully relaunch a previously used rocket 70%70%30%10.70.3
https://www.theverge.com/2017/3/31/15135304/spacex-launch-video-used-falcon-9-rocket-watch
80
76. SpaceX will launch, recover and re-launch a rocket within two weeks 50%
50%50%000
https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/11/16455292/spacex-live-stream-time-falcon-9-launch-echostar-105-ses-11-reusable-rocket
Looks like it's a couple month turnaround right now
81
77. The US announces a major new manned space initiative 50%50%50%10.50.5
https://www.voanews.com/a/trump-to-revive-us-manned-space-exploration-program--/4158963.html
Just
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78. Controversy over the EM drive is resolved 50%50%50%000
https://www.cnet.com/news/theoretical-physicists-get-closer-to-explaining-how-nasas-impossible-emdrive-works/
Some hints but no resolution yet
83
79. The US will install more renewable electricity generating capacity than non-renewable 80%
80%20%10.80.2https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/06/solar-wind-renewable-energy-record/
I think this was actually the case in 2015. Not sure there's 2017 data yet
84
80. Canada has at least one record setting extreme weather event 80%
80%20%10.80.2https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_British_Columbia_wildfires
I think BC wildfires count - largest area, most evacuees, largest single fire
85
81. BC has at least one record setting extreme weather event 50%50%50%10.50.5ibid
86
82. A weather related natural disaster in Canada causes at least $1B in damage 50%
50%50%000http://www.news1130.com/2017/09/11/bc-wildfire-response-cost-almost-500-million/
I can't imagine anything more expensive than the fires, only pegged at $500M
87
83. The Cascadia subduction zone does not have an Earthquake of 9.0 or greater 98%
98%2%10.980.02
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84. Canucks win the Stanley Cup. A wildly optimistic 90%90%10%000
89
5828%2372%67%69%63%
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