Trail Of Cthulhu Stability spend odds
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Stability Loss On FailureAverage loss per roll vs. 4Average loss per roll vs. 5
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No Spend123No Spend1234
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10.51.32.23.00.71.52.33.24.0
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21.01.72.33.01.32.02.73.34.0
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31.52.02.53.02.02.53.03.54.0
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42.02.32.73.02.73.03.33.74.0
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52.52.72.83.03.33.53.73.84.0
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63.03.03.03.04.04.04.04.04.0
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73.53.33.23.04.74.54.34.24.0
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84.03.73.33.05.35.04.74.34.0
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Red background
indicates when spending is worse than not spending (even when the average is the same, not spending has a chance of costing no Stability).
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Blue background
indicates when spending is better than not spending.
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Green background
indicates the optimum amount to spend, when spending is better than not spending.
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So unless you are the sort of person who buys lottery tickets and plays slot machines, don't spend Stability unless the potential loss is 7 or 8, and then
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spend as much as needed to make the roll an automatic success (i.e., spend 3 when rolling vs. 4, spend 4 when rolling vs. 5) -- assuming you have that much
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Stabilty left to spend, of course.
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Yellow background
indicates the amount which should be spent only when a failed roll would take the character below -11 Stability.
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If the result of a failed Stability roll would reduce the character to -12 Stability, then it is better to spend as much Stability as needed to prevent the roll from
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failing. Basically, the character has nothing to lose by spending because failing will take them out of the game.
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Personally, I think this is all way too complicated.
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