| A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) - Malaria Consortium | Burkina Faso | Bauchi, Nigeria | Borno, Nigeria | Kebbi, Nigeria | Kogi, Nigeria | Nasarawa, Nigeria | Plateau, Nigeria | Sokoto, Nigeria | Togo | Chad | FCT, Nigeria | Oyo, Nigeria | Mozambique | |
2 | |||||||||||||||
3 | |||||||||||||||
4 | |||||||||||||||
5 | Funding allocation | ||||||||||||||
6 | |||||||||||||||
7 | Percentage of total program costs covered by Malaria Consortium | 89% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 86% | 87% | 89% | 86% | 86% | 89% | |
8 | Percentage of total program costs covered by other philanthropic actors | 1% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 4% | 0% | |
9 | Percentage of total program costs covered by domestic governments | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 11% | |
10 | |||||||||||||||
11 | Number of children treated with SMC with a hypothetical donation | ||||||||||||||
12 | |||||||||||||||
13 | Donation to Malaria Consortium (arbitrary size) | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | $100,000 | |
14 | Total amount spent on the program by all contributors | $112,712 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $114,406 | $111,812 | $116,218 | $116,218 | $111,812 | |
15 | Cost per SMC cycle administered | $1.48 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.50 | $1.81 | $1.40 | $1.40 | $1.81 | |
16 | Average number of SMC cycles per year | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | |
17 | Cost per child treated with all cycles of SMC | $6.35 | $5.61 | $5.61 | $5.61 | $7.01 | $7.01 | $7.01 | $5.61 | $5.98 | $7.24 | $7.01 | $7.01 | $7.24 | |
18 | Total number of children treated in one year | 17,739 | 20,716 | 20,716 | 20,716 | 16,572 | 16,572 | 16,572 | 20,716 | 19,130 | 15,443 | 16,572 | 16,572 | 15,443 | |
19 | |||||||||||||||
20 | SMC effectiveness from RCTs | ||||||||||||||
21 | |||||||||||||||
22 | Rate ratio for malaria cases (intention to treat effect) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.50 | |
23 | Corresponding reduction in clinical malaria among children targeted | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 75% | 50% | |
24 | Internal validity adjustment — SMC | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | 95% | |
25 | External validity adjustment — SMC | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
26 | Estimated coverage in trials considered in GiveWell's meta-analysis | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | 90% | |
27 | Expected reduction in malaria cases among children treated | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 79% | 53% | |
28 | |||||||||||||||
29 | Baseline mortality rate | ||||||||||||||
30 | |||||||||||||||
31 | In this section, we estimate all-cause mortality rates and the fraction of all-cause mortality that is expected to come from malaria deaths in targeted populations. | ||||||||||||||
32 | |||||||||||||||
33 | Percent of 3- to 59-month old deaths due to malaria—using 2019 GBD data | ||||||||||||||
34 | Number of under-5 deaths from malaria (per year) | 16,395 | 3,594 | 1,708 | 3,141 | 801 | 2,258 | 3,182 | 4,919 | 1,880 | 4,526 | 1,882 | 1,857 | 3,007 | |
35 | Number of "Early neonatal" (0-6 days) deaths from malaria (per year) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
36 | Number of "Late neonatal" (7-27 days) deaths from malaria (per year) | 683 | 78 | 67 | 84 | 49 | 98 | 160 | 108 | 82 | 208 | 113 | 156 | 120 | |
37 | Number of "Post neonatal" (28-364 days) deaths from malaria (per year) | 5,136 | 514 | 362 | 501 | 250 | 584 | 922 | 727 | 575 | 1,402 | 591 | 658 | 1,570 | |
38 | Mortality rate from malaria in each month of life for 1-2 month olds compared to 3-11 month olds | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
39 | Number of annual malaria deaths in post-neonatal period in each monthly age bracket | 467 | 47 | 33 | 46 | 23 | 53 | 84 | 66 | 52 | 127 | 54 | 60 | 143 | |
40 | Number of malaria deaths in 1-2 month olds (per year) | 934 | 93 | 66 | 91 | 45 | 106 | 168 | 132 | 105 | 255 | 107 | 120 | 285 | |
41 | Number of remaining malaria deaths in 3-59 months olds (per year) | 14,779 | 3,423 | 1,574 | 2,965 | 706 | 2,054 | 2,854 | 4,679 | 1,694 | 4,063 | 1,662 | 1,582 | 2,602 | |
42 | Percentage of annual under-5 malaria deaths that occur in 3-59 month olds | 90% | 95% | 92% | 94% | 88% | 91% | 90% | 95% | 90% | 90% | 88% | 85% | 87% | |
43 | |||||||||||||||
44 | Under-5 mortality rate from malaria (per 100,000 child years) | 405 | 256 | 178 | 332 | 240 | 299 | 210 | 361 | 169 | 136 | 187 | 262 | 305 | |
45 | Estimated population of 3-59 month olds | 3,839,269 | 1,334,161 | 909,765 | 899,110 | 316,719 | 717,680 | 1,436,583 | 1,293,056 | 1,058,158 | 3,163,187 | 954,911 | 673,196 | 936,486 | |
46 | Mortality rate from malaria for 3-59 month olds (per 1,000 child years) | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | |
47 | |||||||||||||||
48 | Mortality by age group | ||||||||||||||
49 | Malaria deaths in 3- to 59-month olds | 14,779 | 3,423 | 1,574 | 2,965 | 706 | 2,054 | 2,854 | 4,679 | 1,694 | 4,063 | 1,662 | 1,582 | 2,602 | |
50 | Malaria deaths, all ages (GBD) | 26,305 | 4,545 | 3,094 | 4,607 | 2,471 | 4,450 | 6,893 | 6,247 | 5,436 | 7,194 | 4,418 | 7,027 | 6,890 | |
51 | |||||||||||||||
52 | Ratio of malaria deaths at all ages to malaria deaths at 3- to 59-months | 178% | 133% | 196% | 155% | 350% | 217% | 242% | 134% | 321% | 177% | 266% | 444% | 265% | |
53 | |||||||||||||||
54 | Malaria prevalence | ||||||||||||||
55 | Malaria prevalence (Age 1-4) | 37% | 12% | 14% | 53% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 43% | 33% | 10% | 8% | 36% | 35% | |
56 | Malaria prevalence (Age 5-9) | 38% | 12% | 15% | 55% | 18% | 27% | 20% | 44% | 34% | 10% | 8% | 37% | 35% | |
57 | Malaria prevalence (Age 10-14) | 36% | 12% | 14% | 51% | 17% | 25% | 19% | 41% | 31% | 10% | 8% | 34% | 35% | |
58 | Malaria prevalence (Age 5-14) | 37% | 12% | 14% | 53% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 42% | 33% | 10% | 8% | 35% | 35% | |
59 | |||||||||||||||
60 | Mortality reduction in treated population | ||||||||||||||
61 | |||||||||||||||
62 | 3- to 59-month old mortality caused directly by malaria (per 1,000 child-years) | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.8 | |
63 | Ratio of indirect malaria deaths per direct malaria death | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
64 | Malaria-attributable deaths in target population (per 1,000 child-years) | 6.7 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | |
65 | Proportion of annual direct malaria mortality occurring in high-transmission season | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 70% | 52% | |
66 | Malaria-attributable deaths per 1000 under-5's during high-transmission season | 4.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.5 | |
67 | Ratio of the reduction in malaria mortality to the reduction in malaria incidence | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
68 | Malaria-attributable deaths prevented per 1000 under-5's treated | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | |
69 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted in treated population (after internal and external validity adjustments) | 66.4 | 51.7 | 34.9 | 66.4 | 35.9 | 46.1 | 32.0 | 72.9 | 29.8 | 19.3 | 28.0 | 37.9 | 20.5 | |
70 | Value assigned to averting the death of an individual under 5 from malaria | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | 116 | |
71 | |||||||||||||||
72 | Total units of value from mortality reduction among treated population | 7,718 | 6,007 | 4,052 | 7,722 | 4,176 | 5,361 | 3,721 | 8,472 | 3,461 | 2,242 | 3,260 | 4,401 | 2,379 | |
73 | |||||||||||||||
74 | Mortality reduction in untreated population | ||||||||||||||
75 | |||||||||||||||
76 | Reduction in malaria incidence for treated population in Cisse et al. 2016 | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | 60% | |
77 | Reduction in malaria incidence for untreated population in Cisse et al. 2016 | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 26% | |
78 | Unadjusted expected reduction in malaria cases in untreated population as a percentage of the reduction in the treated population | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | 43% | |
79 | Ratio of malaria deaths at all ages to malaria deaths in 3- to 59-month olds | 178% | 133% | 196% | 155% | 350% | 217% | 242% | 134% | 321% | 177% | 266% | 444% | 265% | |
80 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted in the untreated population per 1000 under-5's treated (before adjustments) | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | |
81 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted in untreated population (before adjustments) | 22.4 | 7.3 | 14.6 | 15.9 | 38.9 | 23.3 | 19.6 | 10.6 | 28.5 | 6.4 | 20.2 | 56.5 | 14.6 | |
82 | Adjustment to account for higher proportion of people being covered in the trial than in targeted population | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | 31% | |
83 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted in untreated population (after adjustments) | 7.0 | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 8.8 | 2.0 | 6.2 | 17.5 | 4.5 | |
84 | Value assigned to averting the death of an individual 5 or older from malaria | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | 73 | |
85 | |||||||||||||||
86 | Total units of value from mortality reduction among untargeted population | 509 | 167 | 331 | 362 | 883 | 529 | 445 | 240 | 647 | 146 | 457 | 1,281 | 332 | |
87 | |||||||||||||||
88 | Total mortality reduction | ||||||||||||||
89 | Malaria-attributable deaths averted in treated and untreated populations | 73.3 | 53.9 | 39.4 | 71.4 | 48.0 | 53.3 | 38.1 | 76.2 | 38.6 | 21.3 | 34.3 | 55.4 | 25.0 | |
90 | |||||||||||||||
91 | Long-term income increases for children currently aged 14 and under | ||||||||||||||
92 | |||||||||||||||
93 | Malaria prevalence (Age 1-4) | 37% | 12% | 14% | 53% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 43% | 33% | 10% | 8% | 36% | 35% | |
94 | Malaria prevalence (Age 5-14) | 37% | 12% | 14% | 53% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 42% | 33% | 10% | 8% | 35% | 35% | |
95 | Percentage point reduction in malaria prevalence in treated population after adherence and coverage adjustments (Age <5) | 22% | 7% | 8% | 31% | 10% | 15% | 11% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 21% | 10% | |
96 | Percentage point reduction in malaria prevalence in untreated population after adherence and coverage adjustments (Age 5-14) | 3% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | |
97 | Population in country age 1-4 | 3,159,820 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 887,125 | 2,593,740 | 26,401,071 | 26,401,071 | 4,037,237 | |
98 | Population in country age 5-14 | 6,348,446 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 2,032,781 | 4,977,421 | 60,226,437 | 60,226,437 | 8,658,113 | |
99 | Size of untreated population (5-14 year-olds exposed to spillovers) | 35,640 | 47,257 | 47,257 | 47,257 | 37,805 | 37,805 | 37,805 | 47,257 | 43,836 | 29,635 | 37,805 | 37,805 | 33,118 | |
100 | Reduction in the number of people infected with malaria at a single point of time (Age<5) | 3,854.75 | 1,466 | 1,735 | 6,464 | 1,679 | 2,542 | 1,869 | 5,160 | 3,656 | 919 | 775 | 3,455 | 1,544 |