Evidence Action Accelerator Renewal BOTEC (November 2021) (public)

	A	B	C
1		Value	Notes
2	Cost
3	Grant to Accelerator (m)	$14	Renewal budget
4
5	Room for more funding (RFMF)
6	Expected annual RFMF, starting in 2025, from opportunities incubated by Accelerator (m)	$41	Weighted average based on forecasts below
7	% of expected annual RFMF, starting in 2025, from opportunities incubated by Accelerator caused by the Accelerator	50%	This removes opportunities where there would have been an implementer without Evidence Action (e.g., if in-line chlorination would have been implemented by another charity during the 10-year period we're modeling benefits for). Value is speculative.
8	Expected increase in annual RFMF, starting in 2025 from EvAc (m)	$21	Calculation
9
10	Marginal benefit of Accelerator opportunities
11	How long we fund opportunities incubated by Accelerator (years)	10	Guess. Using similar value to previous BOTEC and other value of information BOTECs
12	Cost-effectiveness of RFMF from opportunities incubated by Accelerator (x cash)	8	Expected cost-effectiveness of Evidence Action grants in 2025: Guess
13	Counterfactual RFMF over period we would fund new RFMF	6	Expected cost-effectiveness of counterfactual use of funds in 2025: Guess
14	Units of value per dollar, GiveDirectly	0.0034	Top charities cost-effectiveness analysis
15	Units of value created by expected increase in annual RFMF per year	564,160	Calculation
16	Units of value created by spending on counterfactual program per year	423,120	Calculation
17	Discount rate for opportunities getting worse over time	5%	This assumes that cost-effectiveness of opportunities decays over 10-year period.
18	Units of value per dollar from Evidence Action grant per year	0.010	Calculation
19	Present discounted value of additional units of value per dollar	0.082	Calculation
20
21	Cost-effectiveness of this grant in expectation (x cash)	24	Calculation
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25	GW forecasts in terms of outputs in terms of annual RFMF, identified by the end of 2025
26	RFMF (m)	Probability
27	$0	5%
28	$10	25%
29	$40	35%
30	$65	30%
31	$100	5%
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