Financial Forecasts
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Financial & Dividend Discount Model
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AssumptionsBalanced Scenario
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60
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Token sale raise$16,677,682
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% allocation to liquidity pool (LP)20%
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Initial liquidity pool$3,335,536
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Total Tokens Issued (Utility & Dividend)91,625,527
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Dividend Tokens as % of Overall Token Sale77%
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Dividend Tokens issued70,135,345
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Dividend Token price$0.18
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Number of traders (year 1)3,000
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Trades/day/trader8
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Trade size$30
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Volume/day$240
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Win rate52%
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ROI on wins75%
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Spectre fee2.0%
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Token dividend2.0%
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Forecast Year20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Traders3,0007,50015,00027,00045,90073,440110,160154,224200,491240,589264,648
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% change y-o-y150%100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0.050.05
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Volume$79,200,000$198,000,000$396,000,000$712,800,000$1,211,760,000$1,938,816,000$2,908,224,000$4,071,513,600$5,292,967,680$6,351,561,216$6,986,717,338
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% change y-o-y150%100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
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Trader wins$30,888,000$77,220,000$154,440,000$277,992,000$472,586,400$756,138,240$1,134,207,360$1,587,890,304$2,064,257,395$2,477,108,874$2,724,819,762
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Trader losses$38,016,000$95,040,000$190,080,000$342,144,000$581,644,800$930,631,680$1,395,947,520$1,954,326,528$2,540,624,486$3,048,749,384$3,353,624,322
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Gross revenues$7,128,000$17,820,000$35,640,000$64,152,000$109,058,400$174,493,440$261,740,160$366,436,224$476,367,091$571,640,509$628,804,560
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% change y-o-y150%100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
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SPECTRE fees$1,584,000$3,960,000$7,920,000$14,256,000$24,235,200$38,776,320$58,164,480$81,430,272$105,859,354$127,031,224$139,734,347
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% change y-o-y150%100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
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Normal Dividends$1,584,000$3,960,000$7,920,000$14,256,000$24,235,200$38,776,320$58,164,480$81,430,272$105,859,354$127,031,224$139,734,347
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Per dividend-token$0.01$0.03$0.06$0.10$0.17$0.28$0.41$0.58$0.75$0.91$1.00
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% change y-o-y150%100%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%
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Projected dividend yield6%15%25%37%46%50%50%47%41%35%29%
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Special Div LP Growth Target20.0%30.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%50.0%
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% excess growth in LP99%217%331%407%468%502%502%465%397%307%212%
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in value ($)$3,292,893$8,699,207$17,198,282$31,737,422$54,734,134$88,160,000$132,240,001$183,818,881$235,013,185$273,125,263$282,656,670
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% payout factor to dividend-token70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%70.0%
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Special Dividends$2,305,025$6,089,445$12,038,797$22,216,196$38,313,894$61,712,000$92,568,000$128,673,217$164,509,230$191,187,684$197,859,669
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Per dividend-token$0.02$0.04$0.09$0.16$0.27$0.44$0.66$0.92$1.17$1.36$1.41
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% payout factor to SPECTRE30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%30%
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Special Div SPECTRE ($)$987,868$2,609,762$5,159,484$9,521,227$16,420,240$26,448,000$39,672,000$55,145,664$70,503,956$81,937,579$84,797,001
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Combined Dividend Per Dividend-Token
$0.03$0.07$0.14$0.26$0.45$0.72$1.07$1.50$1.93$2.27$2.41
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% change y-o-y158%99%83%71%61%50%39%29%18%6%
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Projected dividend yield15%34%51%61%65%63%58%51%44%36%28%
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Net Liquidity Pool$4,002,644$5,203,437$7,805,155$11,707,733$17,561,599$26,342,399$39,513,598$59,270,397$88,905,596$133,358,394$200,037,590
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% change y-o-y20%30%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%50%
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5.412.09
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* Avg number of trading days per trader110
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-implied LTV$857
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Dividend Discount Model
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Assumptions
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Discount Rate25.00%
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- Risk Free Rate 4.00%
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- Market Risk Premium6.00%
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- Project Risk Premium10.00%
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- Systematic Risk Premium5.00%
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Personal Income Tax Rate30.00%
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Terminal Growth Rate (2029+)3.00%
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Forecast Year20182019202020212022202320242025202620272028
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Combined Dividend Per Token$0.03$0.07$0.14$0.26$0.45$0.72$1.07$1.50$1.93$2.27$2.41
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- After Tax$0.02$0.05$0.10$0.18$0.31$0.50$0.75$1.05$1.35$1.59$1.68
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Discounted Token Dividend Value$0.02$0.03$0.05$0.07$0.10$0.13$0.16$0.18$0.18$0.17$0.14
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NPV Forecast Horizon$1.24
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NPV Terminal Horizon$0.68
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NPV of SPECTRE Tokens$1.91
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Token sale price$0.18
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% upside952%
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0.6460896368
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WARNING: These are forecasts, projections and other predictive statements that represent Spectre's assumptions and expectations in light of currently available information. These forecasts, etc., are based on trends, circumstances involving clients and other factors, and they involve risks, variables and uncertainties. The
Group’s actual performance results may differ from those projected in this forecast. Consequently, no guarantee is presented or implied as to the accuracy of specific forecasts, projections or predictive statements contained herein. The above is not investment advice and is for educational purposes only.
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Note 1 : Owing to an update, during 26th September until 2nd October, 2017, an error was introduced into the calcuation of dividend yields. This cosmetically inflated dividend yields by x2. The error was rectified on 2nd October.
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Note 2 : The above model was updated on the 13th of January, 2018 with the actual token sale numbers. The dividend discount model's project risk premium was reduced to 10% (from 15%) on 23rd January 2018, after a succesful token sale resulting in significant de-risking of the project.
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LIQUIDATED
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