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Cost-effectiveness estimates
One Acre Fund
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ItemsORG-WIDERwandaKenyaBurundiMalawiNigeriaTanzaniaEthiopiaUgandaZambiaComments
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Year2024202420242024202420242024202420242024
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Name of the country RwandaKenyaBurundiMalawiNigeriaTanzaniaEthiopiaUgandaZambia
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Name of the programme One Acre FundOne Acre Fund TuburaOne Acre Fund TupandeOne Acre Fund TuburaOne Acre FundOne Acre FundOne Acre FundOne Acre FundOne Acre FundOne Acre Fund
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Brief description of the programme
Core
Rural Retail
Trees
Market Access
Seed Development / Availability
Carbon
Core
Rural Retail
Trees
Market Access
Seed Development / Availability
Carbon		Rural Retail
Trees
Market Access
Core
Trees
Market Access		Core
Rural Retail
Trees
Market Access
Carbon		Core
Rural Retail
Trees
Market Access		Rural retail
Trees
Carbon		Trees
Seed development / availability
Carbon		Trees
Market access		Core
Carbon		See tab 2 or a detailed breakdown
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Objective of the programmeWe envision a future in which every farm family has the knowledge and means to achieve big harvests, support healthy families, and cultivate rich soil.
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Outcome descriptionPrimary outcome: Incremental profit generated per client: This is derived from several impact streams:
- In every operating core program and every season, 1AF randomly selects groups of several thousand “test farmers” (clients) and “control farmers” (generally neighboring non-clients with perceived interest in joining our program next season, adjusted for statistical differences through propensity score matching). We physically weigh a random sample of each farmer’s harvest, crop by crop, and combine this yield information with land mix (acreage devoted to each crop) and market prices to determine total revenue; we then subtract fully-loaded farm expenses (including input, labor, rental, and interest costs) to calculate total profitability. By obtaining the farm profitability of both test and control groups, we are able to isolate the incremental profit due to participation in our core program.

- The impact of single season crop “add-on” products (e.g., collard greens) is calculated similarly to our core package, as described above.
For trees, where revenue is earned several years after planting, we use a model based on several factors: incremental trees planted (vs control farmers); clients’ tree survival rates after 1 year; selling prices over time; and initial and ongoing costs. A discount rate is then applied to annual revenues and costs to calculate net present value (NPV).

- For trees, where revenue is earned several years after planting, we use a model based on several factors: incremental trees planted (vs control farmers); clients’ tree survival rates after 1 year; selling prices over time; and initial and ongoing costs. A discount rate is then applied to annual revenues and costs to calculate net present value (NPV).

- Non-crop products similarly require distinct impact calculations, conducted every few years, relevant to the product. For instance, in evaluating the impact of solar lights, One Acre Fund conducted RCTs in key countries of operation, where adopters and non-adopters used daily logs to track displaced expenditures (e.g., batteries, kerosene, and phone charging) and incremental income (e.g., charging neighbors’ mobile phones). These benefits were forecasted over the useful life of the product, discounted to time zero, and offset by the solar light’s cost to calculate its NPV. Finally, as above, we weight the impact per adopter by the product’s adoption percentage to calculate its average per client impact.
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Target group (age specific/description)36,014,9411,976,6754,067,7342,133,6673,784,0558,273,3963,803,7108,579,0623,065,607331,035
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Number of population reached for each group--TOTAL5,500,6552,886,1221,029,861382,145670,762303,81399,83680,57233,87112,902
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 Number of population reached for each group--CORE2,100,0431,272,098261,624350,598142,03660,014---12,902
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 Number of population reached for each group--PARTNERSHIPS3,400,6121,614,023768,23731,547528,726243,79999,83680,57233,871-
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Gender distribution of the beneficiaries62%58%64%77%60%7%N/AN/AN/AN/ATypically only measured in countries where 1AF core program is operating.
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Programme start date2006200720062012201620192013201520162015Start date of the intervention so that we can link costs and outcomes in the same timeframe.
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Duration of the programme (years)1111111111
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Status of the outcome indicators, compared to controls
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Counterfactual income increase--TOTAL$51.09$30.34$90.18$55.76$46.04$98.59$44.77$319.61$52.82$491.31Income gain of beneficiaries compared to control group
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 Counterfactual income increase--CORE$104.51$94.79$99.89$99.80$98.73$330.57----
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 Counterfactual income increase--PARTNERSHIPS$69.82$22.62$163.86$50.38$38.23$46.54$44.77$319.61$68.65$1,532.00
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Cost of the programme/intervention in details (cost to 1AF)
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Total costs of the programme--TOTAL$11.53$3.66$13.74$4.73$1.75$1.89$33.69$16.72$16.25$53.54
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 Total costs of the programme--CORE$19.59$10.33$68.62$8.70$12.27$2.91----
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 Total costs of the programme--PARTNERSHIPS$5.40$3.58$6.24$2.61$0.90$1.59$31.81$16.17$19.82$130.87
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Cost estimate timeframe2024202420242024202420242024202420242024
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Cost of the programme/intervention (cost to farmers)
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Including input, labor, rental, and interest costs--CORE$73.00$190.34$54.52$158.69$293.91----Please note that these costs are already accounted for in the farmer profit (i.e., "impact") figures listed above. (In other words, the impact figures are the profits farmers have "cleared," after these expenses were subtracted from their total revenues)
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ROI and costs per outcome
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 Income gain ROI --CORE5.349.171.4611.488.05113.54----Include other relevant outcomes as needed
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 Income gain ROI --PARTNERSHIPS12.936.3126.2819.3042.6529.311.4119.773.4611.71
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Income gain ROI TOTAL48.296.5611.7926.3152.161.3319.123.259.18
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Note: this is a weighted average.
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