CTC Economic Impact (Public)

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
1	State	# Children Receiving Larger CTC (ARPA)	# Children Receiving Larger CTC (Manchin*)	# of Children Who Would Lose Expanded Credit (B-C)	Manchin-to-ARPA Recipient Ratio	ARPA Expansion Credit Value	Manchin Expansion Credit Value	Manchin-to-ARPA Credit Value Ratio
2	Alabama	918,896	430,340	488,556	47%	$1,557,253,192	$905,022,278	58%
3	Alaska	175,988	61,845	114,143	35%	$302,344,143	$138,041,058	46%
4	Arizona	1,514,603	579,639	934,964	38%	$2,480,447,499	$1,262,413,348	51%
5	Arkansas	590,343	275,467	314,876	47%	$977,137,028	$558,875,247	57%
6	California	7,210,470	2,942,999	4,267,471	41%	$11,741,496,757	$6,099,950,856	52%
7	Colorado	1,097,527	351,789	745,738	32%	$1,595,462,290	$646,945,131	41%
8	Connecticut	505,958	140,194	365,764	28%	$753,383,373	$313,660,410	42%
9	Delaware	161,086	53,202	107,884	33%	$256,230,772	$115,703,063	45%
10	District of Columbia	76,213	38,435	37,778	50%	$139,663,038	$91,486,219	66%
11	Florida	3,485,980	1,618,761	1,867,219	46%	$5,794,689,666	$3,342,387,963	58%
12	Georgia	2,037,539	934,524	1,103,015	46%	$3,520,373,903	$2,079,888,795	59%
13	Hawaii	251,026	76,110	174,916	30%	$409,140,515	$173,189,015	42%
14	Idaho	432,282	148,384	283,898	34%	$617,785,883	$267,374,739	43%
15	Illinois	2,322,648	892,273	1,430,375	38%	$3,523,503,815	$1,736,778,443	49%
16	Indiana	1,550,893	550,450	1,000,443	35%	$2,539,293,610	$1,224,736,483	48%
17	Iowa	699,173	267,664	431,509	38%	$1,102,862,382	$537,653,316	49%
18	Kansas	615,193	205,587	409,606	33%	$994,243,696	$445,269,883	45%
19	Kentucky	920,233	423,444	496,789	46%	$1,562,495,222	$911,105,344	58%
20	Louisiana	969,909	506,248	463,661	52%	$1,778,023,547	$1,163,597,100	65%
21	Maine	211,783	77,211	134,572	36%	$362,023,629	$175,754,099	49%
22	Maryland	1,178,021	337,354	840,667	29%	$1,779,200,626	$712,177,213	40%
23	Massachusetts	1,035,586	290,123	745,463	28%	$1,594,699,604	$592,348,980	37%
24	Michigan	1,961,550	809,240	1,152,310	41%	$3,173,263,501	$1,654,308,470	52%
25	Minnesota	1,181,020	341,856	839,164	29%	$1,685,123,144	$670,073,827	40%
26	Mississippi	625,701	368,560	257,141	59%	$1,176,056,984	$826,480,276	70%
27	Missouri	1,302,121	516,213	785,908	40%	$1,909,071,766	$957,629,656	50%
28	Montana	239,667	93,440	146,227	39%	$374,525,705	$184,514,346	49%
29	Nebraska	419,563	140,760	278,803	34%	$681,849,123	$311,246,655	46%
30	Nevada	589,492	225,696	363,796	38%	$933,080,994	$421,691,613	45%
31	New Hampshire	216,015	53,390	162,625	25%	$291,295,363	$86,262,683	30%
32	New Jersey	1,342,581	363,399	979,182	27%	$1,891,937,260	$662,462,149	35%
33	New Mexico	410,468	231,939	178,529	57%	$740,110,865	$489,677,082	66%
34	New York	3,208,655	1,361,705	1,846,950	42%	$5,205,070,647	$2,841,279,417	55%
35	North Carolina	2,014,833	937,307	1,077,526	47%	$3,324,316,547	$1,892,287,253	57%
36	North Dakota	154,736	36,260	118,476	23%	$229,624,873	$74,148,714	32%
37	Ohio	2,281,140	1,010,751	1,270,389	44%	$3,801,412,033	$2,170,629,614	57%
38	Oklahoma	831,454	330,586	500,868	40%	$1,423,057,503	$719,922,895	51%
39	Oregon	742,928	218,287	524,641	29%	$1,166,841,568	$487,022,873	42%
40	Pennsylvania	2,138,969	760,478	1,378,491	36%	$3,250,264,068	$1,518,650,387	47%
41	Rhode Island	187,331	74,885	112,446	40%	$303,072,977	$156,623,252	52%
42	South Carolina	988,718	468,216	520,502	47%	$1,674,688,561	$989,967,540	59%
43	South Dakota	207,785	85,449	122,336	41%	$328,683,526	$165,941,048	50%
44	Tennessee	1,260,214	554,395	705,819	44%	$2,072,523,794	$1,165,472,574	56%
45	Texas	6,084,780	2,596,192	3,488,588	43%	$9,942,884,628	$5,396,442,483	54%
46	Utah	874,448	236,277	638,171	27%	$1,208,253,204	$472,164,332	39%
47	Vermont	98,958	34,504	64,454	35%	$156,719,990	$76,323,792	49%
48	Virginia	1,523,557	501,774	1,021,783	33%	$2,360,319,401	$1,065,925,462	45%
49	Washington	1,355,320	394,889	960,431	29%	$1,973,721,768	$757,808,091	38%
50	West Virginia	327,132	137,427	189,705	42%	$556,107,070	$287,925,901	52%
51	Wisconsin	1,248,509	387,253	861,256	31%	$1,851,418,516	$756,784,384	41%
52	Wyoming	134,949	45,142	89,807	33%	$193,967,725	$83,459,716	43%
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54	* On October 17, 2021, Axios reported that Sen. Manchin's "red line" on the Child Tax Credit expansion was to have "a firm work requirement and family income cap in the $60,000 range." The table above illustrates the difference between the CTC expansion in the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) and a scenario in which the expanded portion of the credit is cut-off for families with incomes above $60,000. While such a reform would likely have different income thresholds for single and married tax units combined with a graduated phase-out of the credit, absent further details, these estimates provide a rough sense the size of cut to the CTC expansion at stake if Manchin's remarks are taken literally. Without access to a specific proposal, we do not attempt to model the effects of a work or earnings requirement, which by nature would further reduce the number of children with access to the credit.
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58	https://www.axios.com/scoop-manchins-red-lines-f9f5f7f7-56d8-4bf6-8345-13abb75ef03f.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_content=politics-childtaxcredit
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