25-04 AAR Model - SMver.xlsx

	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T	U	V	W
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2	AAR Model
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4	Shares On Issue	1,397.0							Ore	Strip	Total		Capex			Pit 36
5	Future issue	582	99	40%	0.6495				37.8	6.1	266.8		191	78		26.6	124.6	4.7	177.1
6	SoI Fd	1,979.4							26.6	6.0	187.0		245			26.6	160.5	6.0	213.0
7	SP	0.170			0.63												35.9
8	Mcap	336								Mininf	Total						2.06
9	Cash	25							SS	33.1	52.7						51.8
10	Debt	0							PFS Lite	29.8	55.3
11	Ent. Value	311								-10%	5%
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13	Inflation Factor	25%	MRE in Apr 25 has PFS opex and prc costs
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15	Year			1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19
16						1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17
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18	Movement	229,000				18,900	20,200	22,000	24,400	21,800	22,100	21,200	10,000	13,680	13,680	13,680	13,680	13,680
19	Strip					10.9	4.5	9.8	10.8	6.1	9.5	13.5	2.9	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0	7.0
20	Ore	37,800				1,900	5,700	2,500	2,500	4,300	2,600	1,700	5,200	2,280	2,280	2,280	2,280	2,280
21	Grade	1.07				1.26	1.02	0.93	0.94	1.04	1.20	1.19	0.95	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04
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23	Mill Rate	Kt				425	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	2,500	1,075
24	Grade	gpt				2.44	1.79	1.08	1.00	1.41	1.26	0.97	1.37	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04	1.04	0.58	0.47	0.47	0.47
25	Recovery	%				95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%	95.7%
26	Production	Koz				32	138	83	77	108	97	75	105	80	80	80	80	80	45	36	36	16
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28	Gold Price	3,350				5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158	5,158
29	Gross Revenue					164,569	710,168	428,482	396,742	559,406	499,895	384,840	543,537	412,612	412,612	412,612	412,612	412,612	230,110	186,469	186,469	80,182
30		3.50
31	Mining	4.22	4.22		0	79,758	85,244	92,840	102,968	91,996	93,262	89,464	42,200	57,730	57,730	57,730	57,730	57,730	0	0	0	0
32	Processing	22.88	22.88			9,723	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	57,194	24,593
33	G&A	1.27	1.59			675	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	3,969	1,707
34	Royalties	2.5%				4,114	17,754	10,712	9,919	13,985	12,497	9,621	13,588	10,315	10,315	10,315	10,315	10,315	5,753	4,662	4,662	2,005
35	Sustaining Capex	0.87	1.08			461	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	2,712	1,166
36	Total Cost				0	94,731	166,873	167,427	176,762	169,856	169,634	162,960	119,663	131,920	131,920	131,920	131,920	131,920	69,628	68,537	68,537	29,471
37	AISC					2,969	1,212	2,015	2,298	1,566	1,750	2,184	1,136	1,649	1,649	1,649	1,649	1,649	1,561	1,896	1,896	1,896
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39	OCFs				0	69,838	543,295	261,054	219,981	389,550	330,261	221,880	423,873	280,692	280,692	280,692	280,692	280,692	160,483	117,932	117,932	50,711
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41	D&A					24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750	24,750
42	Tax	30%				8,180	151,287	67,684	56,431	108,371	91,653	59,139	119,737	76,783	76,783	84,208	84,208	84,208	48,145	35,380	35,380	15,213
43	Interest	12%				17,820	14,256	10,692	7,128	3,564
44	Debt Repay		148,500	-49,451	-99,050	29,700	29,700	29,700	29,700	29,700
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46	Capex	99	247,500	82,418	165,083
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48	FCF Pre-Tax			-32,967	-66,033	22,318	499,339	220,662	183,153	356,286	330,261	221,880	423,873	280,692	280,692	280,692	280,692	280,692	160,483	117,932	117,932	50,711
49	FCF Post-Tax			-32,967	-66,033	14,137	348,052	152,979	126,722	247,915	238,608	162,741	304,136	203,909	203,909	196,484	196,484	196,484	112,338	82,552	82,552	35,498
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51	NPV Pre-Tax		8.0%	1,895,945	0
52	NPV Post-Tax		8.0%	1,313,235
53	Per Share			0.66
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55																15% Corr	Spot
56				3,500	3,750	4,000	4,250	4,500	4,750	5,000	5,250	5,500	5,750	6,000		4,384	5,158
57	NPV8 A$m		1,313	615	721	826	931	1,036	1,142	1,247	1,352	1,457	1,562	1,668	1,313	988	1,313
58	NAV			615	721	826	931	1,036	1,142	1,247	1,352	1,457	1,562	1,668		988	1,313
59	NAV Per Share			0.311	0.364	0.417	0.470	0.524	0.577	0.630	0.683	0.736	0.789	0.843		0.499	0.663
60	TSR			83%	114%	145%	177%	208%	239%	271%	302%	333%	364%	396%		193%	290%
61	Pay-off Profile (min-max)			2.3
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