2014WIGov
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http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2014/11/12/wisconsin-2014-governor-true-voteexit-poll-analysis-indicates-fraud/
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2014 Wisconsin Governor True Vote Model
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Prologue:
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Barrett (D) lost the 2012 Recall recorded vote by 171,000 votes to Walker ( 53.4% - 46.6% )
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Base Case Scenario
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Barrett had a 53% True Vote in the 2012 recall
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93% turnout of living 2012 voters
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Burke had 92% of returning Barrett voters
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Burke had 7% of returning Walker voters
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Base Case Result
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Burke had 52.2% and won by approximately 107,000 votes.
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Check the sensitivity analysis to view Burke's total vote shares for a range of scenarios.
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Intro
WICounties
Top 15 CVS
WITrueVote
Sheet3
WI Exit Poll
2014 NEP
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