ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRS
1
States currently in GiveWell's modelPotential Expansion States
2
NationalAdamawaAkwa IbomBenueEkitiNasarawaTarabaAnambraEbonyiImoKogiOgunOsunEdoDeltaRivers
3
-North EastSouth SouthNorth CentralSouth WestNorth CentralNorth EastSouth EastSouth EastSouth EastNorth CentralSouth WestSouth WestSouth SouthSouth SouthSouth South
4
Most Recent National Survey of Vitamin A Deficiency
5
Maziya-Dixon et al. 2006 - national prevalence of VAD in children under 5 (serum retinol <0.7 μmol/L), 2001 survey29.5%---------------
6
Maziya-Dixon et al. 2006 - national prevalence of severe VAD in children under 5 (serum retinol <0.35 μmol/L), 2001 survey4.7%---------------
7
Improving Circumstances Adjustment
8
Implied adjustments for each proxy
9
Changes in low height-for-age (stunting)-4%---------------
10
Changes in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition)-26%---------------
11
Changes in poverty rates/wealth-30%---------------
12
Weight placed on each method
13
Changes in low height-for-age (stunting)33%---------------
14
Changes in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition)33%---------------
15
Changes in poverty rates/wealth33%---------------
16
Overall adjustment
17
Weighted average improving circumstances adjustment-20.0%---------------
18
Additional Time Trend Adjustments
19
Improving circumstances over time
20
Approximate number of years between proxy comparison estimates15---------------
21
Years since national VAD survey as of 202221---------------
22
Additional years not accounted for in proxy comparison 6.0---------------
23
Average annualized rate of improving circumstances-1.33%---------------
24
Estimated additional time trend adjustment (percentage points)-8.01%---------------
25
Final improving circumstances adjustment-28.0%---------------
26
Estimate of Current National VAD rate
27
Estimated national vitamin A deficiency rate
28
Estimated national VAD rate for Nigeria, 202221.2%---------------
29
Sanity check
30
Is the GiveWell VAD estimate within the bounds of the proportion of children likely not to be consuming many vitamin-A rich foods?Yes---------------
31
Sub-national Variation: State-specific Adjustments
32
Implied adjustments for each proxy relative to national average
33
Variation in low height-for-age (stunting)-108%53%57%60%85%114%38%68%48%54%72%64%43%64%46%
34
Variation in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition)-62%62%118%49%82%78%34%66%101%57%84%66%49%29%94%
35
Variation in anemia rates-82%110%91%106%100%104%111%117%87%94%88%85%97%103%116%
36
Variation in poverty rates/wealth-188%67%82%70%143%219%37%199%72%71%23%21%30%15%60%
37
Weight placed on each method
38
Variation in low height-for-age (stunting)25%---------------
39
Variation in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition)25%---------------
40
Variation in anemia rates25%---------------
41
Variation in poverty rates/wealth25%---------------
42
Estimated state-level vitamin A deficiency rates
43
Weighted average state-specific adjustment for sub-national variation110%73%87%71%103%129%55%113%77%69%67%59%55%53%79%
44
Final estimated state-level vitamin A deficiency rates23%15%18%15%22%27%12%24%16%15%14%13%12%11%17%