A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H | I | J | K | L | M | N | O | P | Q | R | S | ||
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1 | States currently in GiveWell's model | Potential Expansion States | ||||||||||||||||||
2 | National | Adamawa | Akwa Ibom | Benue | Ekiti | Nasarawa | Taraba | Anambra | Ebonyi | Imo | Kogi | Ogun | Osun | Edo | Delta | Rivers | ||||
3 | - | North East | South South | North Central | South West | North Central | North East | South East | South East | South East | North Central | South West | South West | South South | South South | South South | ||||
4 | Most Recent National Survey of Vitamin A Deficiency | |||||||||||||||||||
5 | Maziya-Dixon et al. 2006 - national prevalence of VAD in children under 5 (serum retinol <0.7 μmol/L), 2001 survey | 29.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
6 | Maziya-Dixon et al. 2006 - national prevalence of severe VAD in children under 5 (serum retinol <0.35 μmol/L), 2001 survey | 4.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
7 | Improving Circumstances Adjustment | |||||||||||||||||||
8 | Implied adjustments for each proxy | |||||||||||||||||||
9 | Changes in low height-for-age (stunting) | -4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
10 | Changes in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition) | -26% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
11 | Changes in poverty rates/wealth | -30% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
12 | Weight placed on each method | |||||||||||||||||||
13 | Changes in low height-for-age (stunting) | 33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
14 | Changes in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition) | 33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
15 | Changes in poverty rates/wealth | 33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
16 | Overall adjustment | |||||||||||||||||||
17 | Weighted average improving circumstances adjustment | -20.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
18 | Additional Time Trend Adjustments | |||||||||||||||||||
19 | Improving circumstances over time | |||||||||||||||||||
20 | Approximate number of years between proxy comparison estimates | 15 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
21 | Years since national VAD survey as of 2022 | 21 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
22 | Additional years not accounted for in proxy comparison | 6.0 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
23 | Average annualized rate of improving circumstances | -1.33% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
24 | Estimated additional time trend adjustment (percentage points) | -8.01% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
25 | Final improving circumstances adjustment | -28.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
26 | Estimate of Current National VAD rate | |||||||||||||||||||
27 | Estimated national vitamin A deficiency rate | |||||||||||||||||||
28 | Estimated national VAD rate for Nigeria, 2022 | 21.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
29 | Sanity check | |||||||||||||||||||
30 | Is the GiveWell VAD estimate within the bounds of the proportion of children likely not to be consuming many vitamin-A rich foods? | Yes | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
31 | Sub-national Variation: State-specific Adjustments | |||||||||||||||||||
32 | Implied adjustments for each proxy relative to national average | |||||||||||||||||||
33 | Variation in low height-for-age (stunting) | - | 108% | 53% | 57% | 60% | 85% | 114% | 38% | 68% | 48% | 54% | 72% | 64% | 43% | 64% | 46% | |||
34 | Variation in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition) | - | 62% | 62% | 118% | 49% | 82% | 78% | 34% | 66% | 101% | 57% | 84% | 66% | 49% | 29% | 94% | |||
35 | Variation in anemia rates | - | 82% | 110% | 91% | 106% | 100% | 104% | 111% | 117% | 87% | 94% | 88% | 85% | 97% | 103% | 116% | |||
36 | Variation in poverty rates/wealth | - | 188% | 67% | 82% | 70% | 143% | 219% | 37% | 199% | 72% | 71% | 23% | 21% | 30% | 15% | 60% | |||
37 | Weight placed on each method | |||||||||||||||||||
38 | Variation in low height-for-age (stunting) | 25% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
39 | Variation in low weight-for-height (wasting/acute malnutrition) | 25% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
40 | Variation in anemia rates | 25% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
41 | Variation in poverty rates/wealth | 25% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | |||
42 | Estimated state-level vitamin A deficiency rates | |||||||||||||||||||
43 | Weighted average state-specific adjustment for sub-national variation | 110% | 73% | 87% | 71% | 103% | 129% | 55% | 113% | 77% | 69% | 67% | 59% | 55% | 53% | 79% | ||||
44 | Final estimated state-level vitamin A deficiency rates | 23% | 15% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 27% | 12% | 24% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 13% | 12% | 11% | 17% |