Enrollment Projections

	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O	P	Q	R	S	T
1	Litchfield School District
2	Enrollment Projections			October 2018
3	(Enrollments taken as of October 1 of each year)
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5	ENROLLMENT
6	School Year	PK	K	1	2	3	4	Total 1-4	5	6	7	8	Total 5-8	Total 1-8	9	10	11	12	Total 9-12	Total P-12
7	07-08	38		108	129	102	147	486	141	135	137	143	556	1042	173	144	119	142	578	1,658
8	08-09	38		109	103	126	101	439	146	137	135	144	562	1001	150	146	130	130	556	1,595
9	09-10	21	60	107	102	109	130	448	103	152	133	130	518	966	150	134	142	124	550	1,597
10	10-11	25	77	105	110	109	110	434	132	107	154	131	524	958	126	135	122	139	522	1,582
11	11-12	19	64	103	101	115	105	424	113	137	105	151	506	930	126	122	127	118	493	1,506
12	12-13	25	57	93	103	101	115	412	116	115	137	111	479	891	145	123	114	123	505	1,478
13	13-14	32	56	75	98	108	103	384	119	111	122	139	491	875	112	142	117	103	474	1,437
14	14-15	29	60	78	75	98	105	356	103	118	110	124	455	811	140	107	139	113	499	1,399
15	15-16	35	54	75	80	79	102	336	114	113	120	111	458	794	129	140	107	133	509	1,392
16	16-17	39	47	85	88	85	82	340	107	120	111	119	457	797	115	125	132	98	470	1,353
17	17-18	40	53	67	85	90	87	329	79	115	118	109	421	750	110	108	118	130	466	1,309
18	18-19	40	81	90	70	91	89	340	90	84	111	119	404	744	101	109	108	121	439	1,304
19	19-20	40	81	90	95	74	92	351	91	96	81	110	378	729	115	97	104	105	421	1,271
20	20-21	40	81	90	95	99	75	359	94	97	93	80	364	723	106	111	92	101	410	1,254
21	21-22	40	81	90	95	99	100	384	77	100	94	92	363	747	76	102	106	89	373	1,241
22
23	METHOD
24	Three year Average of Annual Change in Cohort
25	Annual Change		Into grade ...	1	2	3	4	Total 1-4	5	6	7	8	Total 5-8	Total 1-8	9	10	11	12	Total 9-12	Total P-12
26	2 years ago			31	13	5	3	21	5	6	-2	-1	8	29	4	-4	-8	-9	-17	12
27	1 year ago			20	0	2	2	4	-3	8	-2	-2	1	5	-9	-7	-7	-2	-25	-20
28	This year			37	3	6	-1	8	3	5	-4	1	5	13	-8	-1	0	3	-6	7
29	Total Change			88	16	13	4	33	5	19	-8	-2	14	47	-13	-12	-15	-8	-48	-1
30	Average change (rounded)			29	5	4	1	10	2	6	-3	-1	4	14	-4	-4	-5	-3	-16	0
31	Note: Kindergarten to Grade 1 enrollment three year average annual change in cohort is not used because of the change full day kindergarten to these enrollments. Instead, we have used the most recent value.
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33
34	STAFFING PROJECTION
35	School Year		K	1	2	3	4	Total 1-4	5	6	7	8	Total 5-8
36	18-19
37	- Enrollment		81	90	70	91	89	340	90	84	111	119	404
38	- Staffing		4	5	4	5	4	18	4	4	5	5	18
39	- Class Size Guide		20.0	20.0	20.0	20.0	23.0	20.0	23.0	25.0	25.0	25.0	24.0
40	- Avg Class Size		20.3	18.0	17.5	18.2	22.3	18.9	22.5	21.0	22.2	23.8	22.4
41	19-20
42	- Enrollment		81	90	95	74	92	351	91	96	81	110	378
43	- Staffing		4	5	5	4	4	18	4	4	4	5	17
44	- Class Size Guide		20.0	20.0	20.0	20.0	23.0	20.0	23.0	25.0	25.0	25.0	24.0
45	- Avg Class Size		20.3	18.0	19.0	18.5	23.0	19.5	22.8	24.0	20.3	22.0	22.2
46	Staffing Change		0	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	-1	0	-1
47
48	Notes
49	Eliminate multiplier system and replace with three year average change in cohort method
50	Assume 81 Kindergarten for next year (check was that the October 1 enrollment). in 2019 use a two year average; in 2020 use a three-year average.
51	Consider a weighted and unweighted version where the more recent year is weighted x3, last year is x2 and two years ago is x1. This method uses unweighted
52	No high school staffing projection based soley on enrollment
53	Consider closing of private kindergarten
54	Elimniate using births because data is 6 years old by the time it is used and actual K, 1 and 2 enrollments are much more reliable.
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